Cipher Crypto Trader
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πŸš€ Trading: FX | Crypto

πŸ’° $BTC $ETH $XAU

⚠️ Disclaimer: NFA, DYOR
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#GoldTrading

Monitor this supply zone for potential sell setups.

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/u/uQAfwrEs.png
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Last night $1.3 trillion wiped out from Gold and Silver in the last 90 minutes.

This is more than the entire market cap of Bitcoin.
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The market is dropping in response to the Fed's first meeting with Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair for one key reason:

We will have far less information going forward.

During the press conference today, Fed Chair Warsh announced that the Fed has "dropped" forward guidance.

He even hinted that the "dot plot" could be changed or eliminated along with all forms of Fed communication, such as the policy statement and press conferences.

In other words, the market will now have less Fed outlook which means more uncertainty.

On top of this, the five new "task forces" established by Warsh were said to have grand objectives with minimal guidance on what to expect.

As markets have repeatedly proven, uncertainty and volatility go hand-in-hand.

The new era of Fed policy will come with more volatility.
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🚨 Crypto ETF Market Update - June 17

Institutional sentiment turned mixed across major crypto ETFs.

Bitcoin recorded a significant outflow of $82.16M, while Ethereum lost $29.37M. Solana stood out with a positive inflow of $1.06M, making it the only major crypto ETF product to attract fresh capital during the session.

The divergence in flows suggests investors remain cautious toward the largest crypto assets, while selective demand continues to emerge in alternative products.

πŸ“Š Daily Flows:
β‚Ώ Bitcoin: -$82.16M
⟠ Ethereum: -$29.37M
β—Ž Solana: +$1.06M

🏦 Total Assets:
Bitcoin: $80.66B
Ethereum: $9.58B
Solana: $827.88M
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Forwarded from Research Citadel
One of the biggest shifts happening in markets right now isn't where rates are going, it's how the Fed is communicating.

For years, the actual rate decision at FOMC meetings barely mattered.

Markets had already priced the move weeks in advance through SOFR and rates futures.

The real driver was always forward guidance: what Powell said about the path ahead.

That's why you'd often see stocks fall after a rate cut or rally after rates were left unchanged.

The market wasn't reacting to today's decision, it was reacting to expectations for tomorrow.

That framework is changing.

The Fed appears to be moving away from the Bernanke/Yellen/Powell playbook of heavily guiding markets toward a pre-announced outcome.

Instead, we're entering a regime where each meeting could carry genuine uncertainty.

Rather than telling markets exactly what's coming next, the Fed is increasingly forcing investors to interpret the data themselves and form their own view on the path of rates.

The result?

β€’ More 50/50 meetings instead of fully priced outcomes
β€’ Higher rate volatility
β€’ Greater sensitivity to economic data releases
β€’ Bigger market reactions to actual Fed decisions
β€’ Less smoothing of the business cycle

So in short, we're moving from a world where forward guidance drove markets to one where the Fed's actual decisions matter again.

For traders and investors, that means macro analysis becomes more important and positioning around FOMC meetings becomes a lot more interesting.

I think many people are misjudging what happened yesterday, but more on that very soon.

Right now, I’m working on two important reports for you that will be extremely valuable from both a short-term and long-term perspective and where I will factor this data into the analysis.

Be ready. The first report is coming very soon.

🜁 Arcanum πŸœ‚
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ETF Flows: 17 Jun 2026

πŸ”΄ Bitcoin ETFs: -$82.2M net outflows

πŸ”΄ Ethereum ETFs: -$29.3M net outflows

🟒 Solana ETFs: $1.1M net inflows

🟒 Hyperliquid ETFs: $2.1M net inflows
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BREAKING: Arthur Hayes bought 1,500 $ETH worth $2.63M.
Bulls made three attempts to push the market back into the bullish pressure zone, but each impulse faded quickly: the index failed to hold higher, while price remained around $65K without follow-through.

Pressure is now back on the sellers’ side the Pressure Index has dropped to 32.4%, meaning the market is in bearish pressure territory and close to strong bearish pressure.

Until the index returns above the 45-55% zone, this looks more like a failed attempt by bulls to regain control.
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#FET Spot Setup

πŸ“₯ Load Zone: $0.20 - 0.191 - 0.185

🎯 Targets: $0.215 - $0.235 - $0.254 - $0.289

πŸ›‘ Invalidation: H4 close below $0.1793
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#LINK Spot Setup

πŸ“₯ Load Zone: $7.972 - $7.50 - $7.20

🎯 Targets: $8.55 - $9.15 - $10.25 - $11.5

πŸ›‘ Invalidation: H4 close below $6.983
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#TAO Structural Setup

πŸ“₯ Load Zone: $241.9 - $225 - $210

🎯 Targets: $258 - $285 - $305 - $335 - $375

πŸ›‘ Invalidation: H4 close below $196.4

The mathematical edge here completely favors the position, aligning strictly with our execution protocol.

Bid the fear. ⚑️
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#BTC Update

Price has retraced directly into our primary area of interest.

πŸ“Š The Game Plan

Support 1: Currently testing the $64,250 – $63,750 region.

The Deeper Draw: Watch the H4 closes. A confirmed H4 close below $63,800 opens the path to the 0.618 Fib $63,250 and Support 2 ($62,850 – $62,550).

I am actively accumulating Spot at these current coordinates.

Invalidation - H4 close below $58,700.
#bitfinex
The funding channel behind Strategy's $BTC buying has stalled.

STRC, the preferred share it sells at $100 to fund coin purchases, has fallen to a record $85.72.

Below that level the issuance stops, and no STRC-funded buy has happened since 26 May.
This is just unbelievable.

When the US-Iran war started:

Bitcoin: $63,176
ETH: $1,837
Nasdaq: 24,700
S&P 500: 6,879

When the US-Iran war ended:

Bitcoin: $62,510 (-1.05%)
ETH: $1,684 (-8.33%)
Nasdaq: 30,409 (+23.11%)
S&P 500: 7,510 (+9.17%)
#BTC Supply in Profit/Loss Near 50/50

We are currently in a zone where roughly 50% of Bitcoin supply is in profit and 50% in loss.

No one can predict the exact bottom with certainty. What history shows, however, is that periods when the split approaches balance or tips toward majority loss have frequently aligned with major accumulation ranges.

This is one of those structurally significant zones where patient positioning has tended to deliver strong long-term outcomes.
Forwarded from D Man
Brother, Elon Musk's money came from: valuation, borrowing, and leverage.

Your wealth ladder is broken.

You cannot work hard and get Elon Musk rich.

at one stage you MUST get good with the banking world and with politicians in order to succeed.

They must find you 'approvable', 'submittable' β€” see that Elon Musk is even afraid to talk about certain topics...

OR

that is why I love crypto. It is hard, fucking hard, but it is a chance of freedom.

If we break free in crypto, we can piggyback onto anything, including spcx.

Of course, it doesn't have 1 trillion liquidity. he put what 6% only on the markets... of course it is valuation - banking joke...

But we stand a chance to win something from the RIGGED GAME.

That is why I am helping you brother. Because if I lift you up, higher chance one of us succeeds. If we both succeed even better, better odds against what is reserved world for the rulers.

Study crypto. If you learn to trade to make half percent a month, you are already having some safety option. Who knows what is coming... the more skilled we are, the more prepared we are.

The next bull run will come. Some will be happy. We will be ecstatic! We will fucking conquer it from the beginning to the end!

It will be short. WHO CARES?

We are ready.

The goal is to achieve full sovereignity from banks, from credit cards, from debt...

the goal is to be able to spend your money wherever, and not to have to do 9-5. Of course, you're a man, winner, builder... you WANT to work... but that you have ability to work on what you like... to choose to work or not to work, not to must work.

I know some very rich people, who cannot afford themselves two months off as their system would collapse. They are not much different than some of our poorest followers... both slaves, with different color of chains.

Time to break free!

Time to become sovereign.

You don't need banks to tell you if you can send money somewhere, you don't need fucking advisor to tell you if something makes sense or not... you are the alpha. Your brain.

Trust yourself. Let's break free. Let's live to the fullest.

Are you with me?

D Man