🏆 The MongolZ (#7) vs magic (#46)

🏆 Tournament info
PGL Astana 2026 · Group stage · Swiss
May 9 · 11:00 UTC | BO3

🕹 Win chance by VRS model
The MongolZ - 91%
magic - 9%

On paper, this should be one-way traffic.
But if magic pull it off, the VRS swing would be enormous.

👉 cs2analytics.com

#PGLAstana #TheMongolZ #magic

🏆 PGL Astana 2026 - Day 2 forecast

Tournament info:
📅 May 9–17, 2026
📍 Astana, Kazakhstan
👥 16 teams
💰 $1.6M prize pool

🕹 Day 2 matches (win probability by VRS):

Group 1:0
G2 52% - 48% MOUZ
The MongolZ 50% - 50% Spirit
FURIA 63% - 37% HEROIC
Falcons 72% - 28% 9z

Group 0:1
K27 50% - 50% Gentle Mates
Aurora 94% - 6% The Huns
PARIVISION 95% - 5% Fisher College
Monte 69% - 31% magic

📌 What stands out:
- K27 vs Gentle Mates and The MongolZ vs Spirit are the closest matches on the board
- Aurora and PARIVISION got the most comfortable draws on paper

Win probability by VRS on every match:
👉 cs2analytics.com

#PGLAstana

🏆 IEM Atlanta opens TODAY!

🏆 IEM Atlanta 2026
📅 May 11–17 · Atlanta, GA
💰 $1,000,000 · 16 teams

🕹 Win probability by VRS - Day 1:

- 🇺🇦B8 54% vs 🇷🇺 BetBoom 46% (#18 vs #22)
- 🇧🇷 paiN 52% vs 🇪🇺 FaZe 48% (#19 vs #21) - paiN's first event with saffee
- 🇪🇺 Vitality 100% vs 🇪🇺 BCGame 0% (#1 vs #85) - And what other chances are there against Vitality?) But the new BCGame lineup can surprise everyone in the first match with Senzu in the lineup!
- 🇺🇸 NRG 13% vs 🇪🇺FUT 87% - PGL Bucharest champions enter as Group A's biggest favorites
- 🇪🇺NAVI 95% vs🇺🇦 Passion UA 5% - 🇺🇦 derby
- 🇨🇿 SINNERS 38% vs 🏳️ GamerLegion 62%
- 🇧🇷 Legacy 61% vs 🌎 M80 39%
- 🌎 Liquid 7% vs🇩🇰 Astralis 93%

🧐 Worth knowing:

1. 🇪🇺 BC.Game's new five: s1mple, electroNic, krazy, Senzu (loan from MongolZ) and stand-in ScrunK - open vs Vitality. Last time the org met Vitality, at IEM Kraków Stage 2 in January, they lost 2-0 on Dust2 and Overpass with a different roster.

2. 🇪🇺 Vitality's 27-map playoff win streak is still alive going in.

3. 🇪🇺 Vitality chase a sixth straight title in a field where most of the top 10 picked Astana instead.

Which Day 1 line do you actually trust the least?
👉 cs2analytics.com

#IEMAtlanta

🏆 IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1

25 days out. The Major begins in Cologne - and Stage 1 is the entry door!

🏆 IEM Cologne Major 2026 — Stage 1
📅 June 2–5 · Cologne, Germany
🎯 Swiss format · Stage 2 qualification only (16 teams, eight Stage 2 spots, no prize money on the line yet)

🕹 Win probability by VRS - Day 1:

- 🇩🇪GamerLegion 63% vs 🇧🇷MIBR 37%
- 🇺🇦B8 54% vs 🇩🇪BIG 46%
- 🌎M80 50% vs 🇨🇿SINNERS 50% - flattest line on the board
- 🇨🇳TYLOO 58% vs 🇨🇳Lynn Vision 42% - Chinese derby
- 🇷🇺BetBoom 58% vs 🇩🇰Gaimin Gladiators 42% — fer returns to competitive CS after 3+ years away
- 🇩🇰HEROIC 64% vs 🇧🇷Sharks 36%
- 🌎Liquid 55% vs 🇦🇺FlyQuest 45%
- NRG 56% vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER 44%

🧐 Worth knowing:

1. Six of eight matches sit inside the 50–64% band. Only GamerLegion vs MIBR and HEROIC vs Sharks look like proper favorite calls - and even those aren't blowouts.

2. Gaimin Gladiators are making their Major debut with fer in the starting five, his first Tier-1 event since the Rio Major in 2022.

The fact that storyline is competing for attention with eight near-coinflips tells you how open Day 1 actually is.

Closest call for you - M80 vs SINNERS, or one of the another 8 matches?

👉 cs2analytics.com

#IEMCologneMajor

🏆 IEM Atlanta has a domination of 🇺🇦 Ukrainian players - 12 Ukrainian players in the field, the largest national contingent at the event!

In second place, Brazil has 10, and in third place, the USA has 8.
And about that USA number: every team built around American players opened Day 1 in the lower bracket.

🕹 Day 1 results for NA-based orgs:
🇺🇸 NRG 0-2 🇪🇺FUT
🌎Liquid 0-2 🇩🇰Astralis
🌎M80 0-2 🇧🇷Legacy
🇺🇦Passion UA 0-2 🇪🇺NAVI - 🇺🇦 sdy debut on the new five

The full Day 1 featured 8 BO3s, and not a single NRG, M80, or Liquid player took a map. Actually, all teams with an American on their roster fell in the Lower Bracket.

🌎All countries:

🇺🇦 Ukraine - 12
🇧🇷 Brazil - 10
🇺🇸 USA - 8
🇵🇱 Poland - 6
😵‍💫 Russia - 6
🇩🇰 Denmark - 5
🇫🇷 France - 3
🇷🇴 Romania - 3
🇨🇿 Czech Republic - 3
🇩🇪 Germany - 3
🇽🇰 Kosovo - 2
🇸🇪 Sweden - 2
🇱🇹 Lithuania - 2
🇨🇦 Canada - 2
🇿🇦 South Africa - 2
🇪🇪 Estonia - 1
🇮🇱 Israel - 1
🇬🇧 United Kingdom - 1
🇫🇮 Finland - 1
🇸🇰 Slovakia - 1
🇱🇻 Latvia - 1
🇬🇹 Guatemala - 1
🇲🇰 North Macedonia - 1
🇦🇷 Argentina - 1
🇲🇳 Mongolia - 1
🇵🇹 Portugal - 1

🧐 Worth knowing:
Youngest player at the event is s1zzi (B8, 🇺🇦) at 16; oldest is enkay J at 36. Average age 24.7.

👉 cs2analytics.com

#IEMAtlanta

🔥 100 TOP-4 STREAK!

A claim making rounds in the 🕹 CS2 TG space: 🇺🇦 NAVI became the first organization in history to record 100 top-4 finishes at Tier-1 tournaments, allegedly with Astralis next at 76.

🇪🇺 NAVI have been on the Tier-1 circuit since 2010 and are #2 in Player VRS right now (iM, b1t, w0nderful, makazze all in the top 20).

Treating it as unverified until 🕹HLTV or 🖥Liquipedia confirms. If anyone has the primary, drop it in the comments.👇

🇺🇦 S1MPLE STILL HAS IT!

🇫🇷 apEX, post-match in Atlanta after 🇪🇺Vitality 2-0 🇪🇺 BCGame, said publicly what he's been saying since IEM Kraków in January: with the right team around him, s1mple can return to top-tier level. He's high on s1mple's individual ceiling.

🧐 Worth knowing:
BC.Game took Dust 2 to 13-10 - Vitality's #1 Maps VRS pick, where most teams don't break 10 rounds. s1mple posted a 1.18 rating top-fragging for his side.
Hard to argue with apEX here. The hands haven't gone anywhere - the team around them is the variable.

👉 cs2analytics.com

#IEMAtlanta #Vitality #BCGame #s1mple

🎮 149 million bot accounts on Twitch flagged as Russia-linked, allegedly half of all new platform registrations for the second year running.

"CS2NEWS" attributed this to "a Twitch analyst" without naming one.

Twitch has been visibly tightening bot detection in 2025-26, and Russian-language streamers were among those who saw heavy view drops when previous waves of bot purges hit.

👉 cs2analytics.com

#Twitch

🇪🇺 NAVI's Ukrainian core gave a couple of off-server soundbites worth noting :)

🇺🇦 w0nderful: would fly to LA once a year for a month max, but living there permanently - no. Prefers life in Ukraine!🔥

🇽🇰 makazze (NAVI's Kosovo-born rifler): still hasn't tried Ukrainian food because, in his words, his teammate Igor (w0nderful) hasn't treated him to any. He adds that, for him, Balkan cuisine is the best of all!

🇽🇰 makazze on the Cache return: he's curious which map Valve drops to make room. His personal pick for the chopping block: Nuke. With one explicit plea — please, not Ancient!🔥

🧐 Worth knowing:
🇽🇰makazze having Nuke trauma is understandable. NAVI led 11-0 on Nuke in the BLAST Rivals 2026 GF before 🇪🇺Vitality ran 13 unanswered to take the map in overtime - still one of the biggest blown halves in CS2 history.

🇺🇦Cache returned April 28, sits in the queue waiting for Active Duty entry after Cologne. (rumors)

Cuisine discourse and map veto preferences will not affect Cologne Major prep!

👉 cs2analytics.com

#NAVI

🇩🇰 Falcons paid for stars and got exactly what they paid for - or no?)

🏆 PGL Astana 2026 · Swiss closed(for them) · Qualified 3-1
📊 VRS: #4 → #4 (1824 → 1893 pts, +69 net)

🕹 The run:
R1 vs K27 2-0 - mONESY 1.56
R2 vs 9z 1-2 - NiKo 1.17 (top of his side in the loss)
R3 vs Monte 2-0 - NiKo 1.57
R4 vs MongolZ 2-1 - kyousuke 1.45

🧐 Worth knowing:
🇩🇰 Falcons opened 1-1 and recovered from the 9z loss to close 3-1. That 9z loss is now part of an upset run worth its own conversation: 9z went 3-0 Swiss from #20.

NiKo carrying a loss with 1.17 means the rest of the side averaged below 1.00 on the day 9z found their map. Cologne Major is 22 days out; Will the Falcons have time to fix all their bugs? As 🇩🇰 Kerrigan says, he still needs to work a little on his personal game. And Niko says that they just need a little more time and everything will be great!

👉 cs2analytics.com

#PGLAstana #Falcons

🔥 Former teammates of 🇩🇰 karrigan have spoken out for the first time about his departure from the team!

karrigan's move to Falcons was the loudest IGL switch of the year - and FaZe's remaining four only now have started weighing in.
Twistzz went on record with HLTV after BLAST Rivals saying he hoped frozen would stay for the rebuild and become "a pillar alongside me and the other OGs." He also publicly noted the way the departure was handled could have been better - a sentiment karrigan addressed in his own HLTV sit-down ahead of PGL Astana, explaining the seven-day Cologne cutoff didn't leave time for a clean heads-up.

🙇‍♂️The other three reportedly reacted along these lines:

jcobbb: thought he might be cut after the Bucharest result; woke up to a farewell text from karrigan instead.

frozen: said the offer was already on karrigan's desk when he was told - understood the decision but didn't endorse it.

broky: framed the exit as not the best ending to the FaZe arc, but said with results trending the way they were, there wasn't much room for disappointment.

🧐 Worth knowing:
- 🇩🇰 karrigan moved to replace kyxsan at Falcons

- 🇪🇺 FaZe brought in Neityu as stand-in. The "new FaZe" then beat FURIA and G2 at BLAST Rivals before losing to NAVI - better stretch than anything they'd put together with karrigan in months.

- 🇩🇰 Falcons just closed a 3-1 Swiss at PGL Astana.

👉 cs2analytics.com

#FaZe #Falcons

🇩🇰 HEROIC has been eliminated....

🏆 PGL Astana 2026 · Eliminated 1-3
📊 VRS: #20 → #21 (1485 → 1495 pts, +10 net but a rank slip)

🕹 The run:
R1 vs 🇷🇺Aurora 2-0 - xfl0ud 1.53
R2 vs 🇧🇷FURIA 0-2 - susp 0.96
R3 vs 🇪🇸Gentle Mates 0-2 - yxngstxr 0.93
R4 vs 🇷🇺magic 1-2 - nilo 1.20 (elimination....)

🧐 Worth knowing:
- 🇩🇰 HEROIC opened the tournament with maybe the cleanest Day 1 result - a 2-0 over Aurora (#11 going in), with xfl0ud at 1.53 looking like a top-15 AWPer.
- Three matches later they're out. The frustrating part isn't the 🇧🇷 FURIA loss (top-10 opponent, expected territory) — it's that after the collapses against Gentle Mates and the magic elimination, none of their MVPs cracked 1.25 across three series.

We genuinely had them on 3-2 in the bracket before the event. R1 backed that up. Then the floor fell out. Tough one to watch.

👉 cs2analytics.com

#PGLAstana #HEROIC

🔥 ANUBIS STREAK DEAD!

Pulling the receipts on a 🇪🇺 Vitality stat that's been quietly stacking up: 10 consecutive map wins on Anubis, going back to March 14, 2025. But today, the 🇷🇺 BetBoom team stopped this win streak, and it looks like the era of vitality is starting to show cracks...

📊 The full run:

12/05/26 - vs 🇷🇺 BetBoom 10-13 (BetBoom end it)
03/05/26 — vs 🇪🇺 NAVI 13-11 (BLAST Rivals GF)
29/03/26 — vs 🇪🇺 NAVI 13-10
14/02/26 — vs 🇪🇺 G2 13-8
24/01/26 — vs 🇩🇰 Falcons 13-4
18/01/26 — vs 🇸🇪 EYEBALLERS 19-16
21/04/25 — vs 🇦🇺 FlyQuest 13-2
29/03/25 — vs 🇷🇺 Spirit 13-6
21/03/25 — vs 🇷🇺 Virtuspro 13-6
15/03/25 — vs 🇲🇳 MongolZ 13-4
14/03/25 — vs 🌎 Liquid 13-9

🧐 Worth knowing:
🏜 Anubis spent six months out of the Active Duty pool (July 2025 → January 2026), and Vitality just picked the streak back up where they left off. The 19-16 vs 🇸🇪 EYEBALLERS is the only one that even went to overtime; the rest were straight closes. 🇪🇺NAVI got the closest crack at it — twice (13-10, then 13-11 in the BLAST Rivals GF after leading 11-9). Both times Vitality won the last stretch when it mattered.

👉 cs2analytics.com

#Vitality

🇷🇺 BetBoomTeam became the second team to beat 🇪🇺 Vitality in 2026!

🇫🇷apEX said in an interview that they didn't prepare for the tournament, 🇬🇧mezii and 🇫🇷Apex were visiting Michelin-starred restaurants and the other players were busy traveling.

And 🇪🇺 natus vincere has never lost to #BetBoom - so 🇪🇺NaVi>🇪🇺Vitality?)

#VforVictory #navination

🔥 SICK BUT STILL COOKING!

🇺🇦 NAVI dropped a press blitz yesterday after taking down 🇩🇪 GamerLegion 2-1 - iM led the talking, makazze backed him up, and it turns out both played the series with a flu.

🇷🇴 iM on the Ancient blowout (1-13 on 🇪🇺NAVI's own pick): says 🇪🇺GamerLegion started on the T-side of NAVI's own map, NAVI won the opening buy round but dropped the pistol - and from there everything fell apart in mid-rounds. We where walk out one by one and just die.

🇷🇴iM on NAVI's biggest opponent: not 🇩🇰Astralis, not 🇧🇷Legacy, not even 🇪🇺Vitality. 🇪🇺NAVI themselves. The team that's been one mistake away from losing series all event can't afford another.

🇷🇴 iM on 🇪🇺 Vitality after the 🇷🇺BetBoom loss: the world #1 looks beatable now. Says NAVI have to use that opening if they want to win the tournament — and reckons NAVI will finally take at least one map off Vitality if they meet at Atlanta. (Reminder: NAVI haven't taken a map off Vitality in 12 straight.)

🇷🇴 iM to the haters: not perfect, but NAVI are in playoffs. Keep barking on 🕹 HLTV. (Original was less polite😅)

🇽🇰 makazze defending iM: told NAVI fans on Twitter that even sick, iM is still doing damage. When asked if he was sick too when played Ancient - "I'm also sick. But no excuses."

🕹 Worth knowing:
NAVI just climbed to world #2 in VRS (+6.9 pts), with w0nderful at #9 Player VRS (1,830 pts) and makazze at #6 (1,862 pts). iM is sitting #7 in Player VRS at 1,838 pts.

👉 cs2analytics.com

#NAVI #IEMAtlanta

🇷🇺 Aurora ground their way through five rounds and into the 🏆 PGL Astana playoffs!

🏆 PGL Astana 2026 · Swiss closed · Qualified 3-2
📊 VRS: #9 → #8 (1743 → 1792 pts, +49 pts)

🕹 The run:
R1 vs 🇩🇰HEROIC 0-2 - Wicadia 1.13 (rough start, -16 pts)
R2 vs 🇲🇳 The Huns 2-0 - Wicadia 1.71 (the bounce-back)
R3 vs 🇷🇺 PARIVISION 2-0 - XANTARES 1.47
R4 vs 🇪🇺 MOUZ 0-2 - XANTARES 1.09
R5 vs 🇲🇳 MongolZ 2-0 - soulfly 1.38 (the qualifier)

🧐 Worth knowing:
The PARIVISION 2-0 in R3 was the swing match: knocked PARIVISION out of the world top 10 and pushed Aurora into the upper half of the bracket race. Tomorrow they're on the Astana stage.

👉 cs2analytics.com

#PGLAstana #Aurora

🏆 TOP players on PGL Astana 2026 group stage!

Top 5 by rating (Rating 3.0):
donk (🇷🇺Spirit) - 1.63
molodoy (🇧🇷FURIA) - 1.47
m0NESY (🇩🇰Falcons) - 1.35
luchov (🇺🇾9z) - 1.35
xertioN (🇪🇺MOUZ) - 1.34

donk was the best player of the Astana group stage by a meaningful margin - 0.16 rating above the second-best performer across the whole Swiss Group stage. He carried Spirit 3-0! and run through FURIA in R3 (1.49 on the 2-1 series win) and was the highest-rated player on every Spirit map of the event.

Who will take the MVP of the tournament?

🌍 Global Player VRS top 8!

🕹 Global Player VRS - Top 8 (May 13):
🇫🇷 ZywOo (🇪🇺Vitality) - 2023
🏴‍☠️ m0NESY (🇩🇰Falcons) - 1951
🇮🇱 flameZ (🇪🇺Vitality) - 1939
🇪🇪 ropz (🇪🇺Vitality) - 1938
🏴‍☠️ donk (🇷🇺Spirit) - 1917
🇽🇰 makazze (🇺🇦NAVI) - 1877
🇷🇴 iM (🇺🇦NAVI) - 1850
🇬🇧 mezii (🇪🇺Vitality) - 1848

Four Vitality players in the top 8. ZywOo's lead over m0NESY sits at 72 points.

🧐 Worth knowing:
1. donk sits #5 globally right now at 1917 pts. The four players above him are 🇫🇷ZywOo, m0NESY, 🇮🇱flameZ, 🇪🇪ropz - three 🇪🇺Vitality players and one 🇩🇰Falcons player. If donk keeps the Astana form through the playoffs and into Cologne, the top 3 conversation gets very live. m0NESY is 34 points ahead of donk for #2 (well within reach), and flameZ/ropz are within 22 points for #3/#4.

2. Vitality's lower bracket Atlanta run could erode their players' VRS just as Spirit's deep Astana run lifts donk's.

Does donk break into the global top 3 after Astana, or do ZywOo, m0NESY and flameZ hold the line?

👉 cs2analytics.com

#PGLAstana #PlayerVRS

🇲🇳 The MongolZ has been eliminated.

🏆 PGL Astana 2026 · Eliminated 2-3
📊 VRS: #7 → #6 (1790 → 1812 pts, +22 net but still out)

🎯 The run:
R1 vs 🇷🇺magic 2-0 - 910 1.43 (+25 pts)
R2 vs 🇷🇺Spirit 0-2 - 910 1.39 (top of her side in loss)
R3 vs 🇪🇺G2 2-0 - 910 1.41 (+31 pts, peak of the run)
R4 vs 🇩🇰Falcons 1-2 - bLitz 1.25
R5 vs 🇷🇺Aurora 0-2 - mzinho 1.28 (elimination)

🧐 Worth knowing:
1. 910 was the highest-rated 🇲🇳 MongolZ player in three straight series and never below 1.39. When the MVP card moved off her in R4 and R5, the team's ceiling moved with it. Maybe that's what was missing in the finals matches.

2. Cologne Major in 20 days.🇲🇳 MongolZ already have their Stage 2 spot — Astana was a tune-up, not a must-win.

👉 cs2analytics.com

#PGLAstana #MongolZ

🇷🇺 The 2018 Boston Major-winning Cloud9 core is reportedly putting the band back together for CS2.

Per a leak from streamer Cooper during his IEM Atlanta co-stream - and confirmed in chat by Stewie2k himself - a five-man orgless stack is forming with:
🇺🇸 Stewie2k - ELEAGUE Boston Major 2018 champion, first NA player to win both a Major and an Intel Grand Slam
🇺🇸 autimatic - ELEAGUE Boston Major 2018 champion
🇺🇸 Skadoodle - ELEAGUE Boston Major 2018 champion
🇺🇸 Brehze - ex-Evil Geniuse, Top-8 best player of 2019
🇺🇸 Victor also known as food - last competed in CS before 2020, has been in VALORANT since

Three Boston Major champions back on the same server eight years after that 2-1 vs FaZe in OT. Brehze and Victor fill out the five.

🕹 Worth knowing:
1. The project is intentionally orgless. Stewie2k said in Cooper's chat the goal is to "show yall we aint playin for no money" - a statement framed in direct contrast to the multi-million-dollar payrolls running the top of the scene right now.

2. Every USA representative except EliGE has already left the tournament and the field is being dominated by european players from Vitality, NAVI, FUT, Astralis, Falcons, etc.

3. A reunion stack of pre-VALORANT NA legends, playing for pride, is the kind of story the region hasn't had in years. HLTV.org

👉 cs2analytics.com

#NACSReturn #Stewie2k #CS2