Decomposition of systemic influences on BTC [everything is up except of investor risk appetite]

LVMH stock down almost 40% in a year and luxury index benchmarks down double-digits.

The U.S. Treasury is expected to issue over $31 trillion in Treasury bonds in 2025, accounting for approximately 109% of GDP and 144% of M2, the highest level in history. This could impact risk asset markets, including cryptocurrencies. If the government ultimately adopts debt monetization measures, it may strengthen market demand for "hard assets" like Bitcoin as an inflation hedge. -Binance Research

Fed's Daly: I'm not hearing of businesses making layoffs. I'm not hearing businesses pulling back and hunkering down. [Did she see yesterday's Philly's fed orders expectations?]

🚨Gold's call-put dollar volume ratio is now at extremes comparable only to the 2011 and 2020 peaks both of which marked major tops. Historically, such extremes in gold market sentiment have preceded parabolic rallies in Bitcoin.

UBS has sharply raised its gold forecast to $3500 for 2025, citing global instability, rising tariffs, and heightened inflation.

6,000 ETH worth $9.49m bought today as whale spot activity around Ethereum surges

Massive flows into money market & cash ETFs again, at levels that historically coincided with major market lows.

Emerging markets are experiencing a significant and accelerating outflow of capital. This pressure isn’t fully visible in exchange rates, likely due to heavy intervention by central banks to smooth volatility. The scale of capital flight is approaching levels seen during the peak of the COVID-19 crisis.

Altseason Index is at 20. Historically, levels this low have signaled strong buying opportunities for altcoins.

Spot gold rises above $3380 per ounce for the first time amid safe haven demand. Bitcoin breaks above 87k

🚨China warns it will retaliate against countries aligning with the US on trade.

The dollar index is at its lowest level since March 2022

Several major token unlocks (over $5 million per event) are scheduled in the next 7 days

A whale withdrew 6,528 ETH worth $10.69m from Bitfinex 29 mins ago, the whale currently holds 6,624 ETH worth $10.83m, according to Onchainlens

Spot silver up 1%

Malaysia respects multilateralism, will continue to engage China, EU, US -Trade Minister [mention multilateralism = trade war escalation = bullish crypto]

Gold to oil ratio: 51.37. The highest since October 2020.

The EU is considering ways to allow U.S. LNG exports to comply with its new methane emissions rules to avoid a trade conflict with President Trump amid ongoing tariff threats. -sources