UniCredit Investment Institute: US long-dated Treasury yields could rise further if uncertainty around US trade policies persists. The increasing market share of private foreign investors in the Treasury market is a significant factor, as they typically do not follow a buy-and-hold strategy, which could lead to higher volatility

🚨TETHER HAS JUST FROZEN A TOTAL OF APPROXIMATELY 870K USDT ACROSS 3 ADDRESSES, ACCORDING TO MISTTRACK

Jim Bianco: If the hard data [blue] does not turn lower in the next few weeks to month, we will have to start asking if there has been a big misunderstanding about the impact of tariffs on the economy.

Another sentiment indicator shows more bears than bulls enter the market.

Gold used to move in lockstep with real yields (TIPS), reflecting inflation and rate expectations. That relationship has broken down. With gold ripping and real yields flat, is the market pricing in inflation too early or is it overreacting and miscalculating the impact of tariffs?

US stock market underperformance versus stock markets in the rest of the G10 is approaching -10%.

🚨TRUMP: POWELL SHOULD HAVE LOWERED INTEREST RATES, LIKE THE ECB, LONG AGO, BUT HE SHOULD CERTAINLY LOWER THEM NOW

🚨TRUMP: POWELL’S TERMINATION CANNOT COME FAST ENOUGH

UnitedHealth shares fall as much as 20% in premarket trading after the health insurer cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.

The SPX has seen negative monthly returns for 39 days straight. In 2016 and 2022, SPX bottomed when monthly returns were negative for 40 days (today)

Traders are now paying a premium to hedge against a weaker dollar over the next 12 months, for the first time in five years.

🚨ECB CUTS INTEREST RATE ON MARGINAL LENDING FACILITY TO 2.65% VS 2.90%

FED's Williams: tariffs will drive up inflation this year and lower growth

24% of Americans are scrapping plans to make a major purchase like a home or car due to tariffs -Redfin Survey

Debt as a share of domestic liquidity is rising verticaly toward levels historically associated with macro stress and expansionary inflections. This ratio has preceded every major liquidity event of the past 40 years.

China's President Xi: Trade wars undermine multilateral trading system, disrupt global economic order -Xinhua

🚨AT OPEN, DOW DROPPED OVER 1%, S&P 500 ROSE BY 0.38%, AND NASDAQ UP OVER 0.5%

🚨Only two times in history have Philly Fed new orders been worse, the 2020 lockdown and the 2009 crash. NY Fed’s 6-month outlook shows the pain isn’t priced in: layoffs tend to follow hard. When orders expectations drop, layoffs surge

Stablecoin Turf Wars: BofA lobbying for rules favoring banks over tech firms in stablecoin issuance. Circle is positioning itself as a compliant US alternative to offshore giant Tether. Stablecoin legislation will determine who can legally issue dollar backed tokens in the US and what the rules of engagement are for those that can.

SPX just dropped from 6100 to below 5500, only ~100 stocks remain above their 200 DMA. Breadth has collapsed into the red zone, confirming the decline is broad and structural (for now).