🚨Fitch Ratings has sharply lowered its forecasts for world growth in response to the severe escalation in the global trade war

US gov spent +15% more on federal salaries in 2025 than it did in 2024, despite DOGE.

CTAs (trend following funds) are aggressively short the USD (-2.5 z-score) while aggressively piling into EUR, GBP & CHF (>2.5 z-score).

Fed’s Hammack: Consumers and businesses have grown more cautious, paused some spending in light of increased uncertainty. If the economy should falter and inflation decline, then it may be appropriate to ease policy by lowering the federal funds rate from its current level of 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent, perhaps even quickly.

Gold spot new all-time high at $3,333/oz

BNY: Weak Dollar a buying opportunity for long-term investors. Institutional investors have been increasing their dollar positions, reversing hedges placed for a weaker greenback.

🚨US plans to use tariff negotiations to isolate China

Russian Finance Ministry calls to create its own crypto stablecoin.

🚨Raydium has unveiled Launchlab, a direct rival to Pumpfun

US 20 Yr bonds draw 4.810% vs 4.814% pre-sale when-issued yield [another successful auction]

🚨Reverse repo drops from 88.8b to $54.8b, lowest since April 2021

🚨Powell: We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension [high inflation, low employment]. If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close. [BTFD]

🚨Fed's Powell: Unemployment is likely to go up as economy slows.

🚨Fed's Powell: Tariffs are larger, even than in the Fed's upside estimates.

Powell: Government layoffs not yet big enough to have a material effect on the economy

🚨Powell essentially acknowledges that a stagflationary outlook will force the Fed to prioritize employment over short-term inflation, largely due to the impact of tariffs, opening the door to cuts despite tariff-driven inflation. BTFD! -Bull Case insider

Powell: the tariff shock pushes toward higher unemployment, higher inflation

Powell: probably will see continued volatility

🚨FED'S POWELL: CRYPTO IS BECOMING MORE MAINSTREAM, A LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR STABLECOINS IS A GOOD IDEA