Rest assured, the Fed is not going to allow disorderly UST selling to crash the system. If it needs to step in, it will step in. [worst case scenario]

🚨Republicans reconsider their commitment to tax cuts for the rich in Trump agenda bill - NBC Reporter on X.

S&P 500 Opening Bell Heatmap (Apr. 16, 2025)
SPY -0.89%
QQQ -1.72%

Risk On/Risk Off indicator flashing extreme risk-off level.

🚨YOU ARE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH: DXY down, gold ATH, uncertainty index higher than during Covid, trade war escalating, short term inflation expectations UP, EMs imploding, China easing and dumping USTs to keep the Yuan afloat, EU easing, the Fed about to ease, US sentiment at risk off extreme, stablecoins at ATH, doomsayer loudness ATH. BTFD!

Coinbase Institutional warns of converging signs that suggest 'crypto winter' is coming -source

🚨Fitch Ratings has sharply lowered its forecasts for world growth in response to the severe escalation in the global trade war

US gov spent +15% more on federal salaries in 2025 than it did in 2024, despite DOGE.

CTAs (trend following funds) are aggressively short the USD (-2.5 z-score) while aggressively piling into EUR, GBP & CHF (>2.5 z-score).

Fed’s Hammack: Consumers and businesses have grown more cautious, paused some spending in light of increased uncertainty. If the economy should falter and inflation decline, then it may be appropriate to ease policy by lowering the federal funds rate from its current level of 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent, perhaps even quickly.

Gold spot new all-time high at $3,333/oz

BNY: Weak Dollar a buying opportunity for long-term investors. Institutional investors have been increasing their dollar positions, reversing hedges placed for a weaker greenback.

🚨US plans to use tariff negotiations to isolate China

Russian Finance Ministry calls to create its own crypto stablecoin.

🚨Raydium has unveiled Launchlab, a direct rival to Pumpfun

US 20 Yr bonds draw 4.810% vs 4.814% pre-sale when-issued yield [another successful auction]

🚨Reverse repo drops from 88.8b to $54.8b, lowest since April 2021

🚨Powell: We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension [high inflation, low employment]. If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close. [BTFD]

🚨Fed's Powell: Unemployment is likely to go up as economy slows.

🚨Fed's Powell: Tariffs are larger, even than in the Fed's upside estimates.