Bull Case
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Content here is for informational purposes only, always DYOR before making decisions.
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๐ŸšจUOB economist Ho Woei Chen: Despite the robust first-quarter GDP, UOB downgrades its full-year GDP growth forecast for China to 4.3% from 4.7%, citing the escalation of US-China tariffs.
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CALIFORNIA'S NEWSOM SAYS STATE TO SUE OVER TRUMP'S TARIFFS
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Gold had highest YTD return among commodities last week (thru 4/11/25)
๐ŸšจJapan's government pension fund says has switched its foreign equities investment benchmark to exclude domestic Chinese shares
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Hedge funds/large speculators are net short S&P 500 futures but not in extreme territory
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Rest assured, the Fed is not going to allow disorderly UST selling to crash the system. If it needs to step in, it will step in. [worst case scenario]
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๐ŸšจRepublicans reconsider their commitment to tax cuts for the rich in Trump agenda bill - NBC Reporter on X.
S&P 500 Opening Bell Heatmap (Apr. 16, 2025)
SPY -0.89%
QQQ -1.72%
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Risk On/Risk Off indicator flashing extreme risk-off level.
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๐ŸšจYOU ARE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH: DXY down, gold ATH, uncertainty index higher than during Covid, trade war escalating, short term inflation expectations UP, EMs imploding, China easing and dumping USTs to keep the Yuan afloat, EU easing, the Fed about to ease, US sentiment at risk off extreme, stablecoins at ATH, doomsayer loudness ATH. BTFD!
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Coinbase Institutional warns of converging signs that suggest 'crypto winter' is coming -source
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๐ŸšจFitch Ratings has sharply lowered its forecasts for world growth in response to the severe escalation in the global trade war
US gov spent +15% more on federal salaries in 2025 than it did in 2024, despite DOGE.
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Bull Case pinned ยซ๐ŸšจYOU ARE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH: DXY down, gold ATH, uncertainty index higher than during Covid, trade war escalating, short term inflation expectations UP, EMs imploding, China easing and dumping USTs to keep the Yuan afloat, EU easing, the Fed about to easeโ€ฆยป
CTAs (trend following funds) are aggressively short the USD (-2.5 z-score) while aggressively piling into EUR, GBP & CHF (>2.5 z-score).
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Fedโ€™s Hammack: Consumers and businesses have grown more cautious, paused some spending in light of increased uncertainty. If the economy should falter and inflation decline, then it may be appropriate to ease policy by lowering the federal funds rate from its current level of 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent, perhaps even quickly.
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Gold spot new all-time high at $3,333/oz
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BNY: Weak Dollar a buying opportunity for long-term investors. Institutional investors have been increasing their dollar positions, reversing hedges placed for a weaker greenback.
๐ŸšจUS plans to use tariff negotiations to isolate China
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Russian Finance Ministry calls to create its own crypto stablecoin.
๐ŸšจRaydium has unveiled Launchlab, a direct rival to Pumpfun
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