US firms with China suppliers fall into distress.

S&P 500 earnings revisions are the worst they’ve been since Covid

Nearly one third of consumers are expecting a worse financial situation in the year ahead per ⁦NY Fed survey

Last week saw huge inflows into US large caps followed by government bonds

Share of hardship withdrawals (when you take money out of your retirement account early due to an immediate and heavy financial need) in 2024 was 4.8%, more than double 2019’s share of 2.3%

Consumers expect food prices to increase 5.23% in next year per March, per NY Fed survey

BofA Hartnett: Short SPX until Fed cuts rates and US/China pause trade war in order to ease the risk of a global recession. [BTFD]

According to a recent ⁦Gallup⁩ poll, nearly 60% of respondents say their federal income taxes are too high while 38% say they’re about right

Tether invests in fintech firm Fizen to boost stablecoin adoption and self-custody solutions for unbanked users and merchants. -official announcement

🚨Bank of America's CEO Moynihan: BofA doesn't see a recession in 2025, and no rate cuts.

While total CeFi and DeFi lending remains 40% below 2022 levels, DeFi onchain lending has shown a strong recovery, now standing 20% above its 2021 peak -Galaxy Research

🚨US financial conditions are now the tightest since the 2020 crash, similar to levels of the brutal 2022 rate hike cycle. -Bloomberg

🚨Future General Business Conditions Diffusion Index has fallen off a cliff. [BTFD]

BTC $86k

Gold trading frenzy erupts in China as tensions with US escalate -Bloomberg

The gold-to-oil ratio is perhaps the cleanest visual summary of the current market psyche: fear and gloom. Gold surges as a hedge against inflation, oil softens on recession fears. The result? A ballooning gold/oil ratio. [BTFD!]

The IEA now forecasts oil demand growth of 730,000 bopd in 2025, down 270,000 from its prior 1 mmbod growth forecast, due to the US trade war

"A level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey." -NY Manufacturing Survey

🚨EU expects us tariffs to remain as talks make little progress.

BTC vs Global M2

Last week was the 4th most volatile week in over 40 years for SPX.