Potential sources and scenarios of upside risk today.

Apollo: The textbook would be saying when the stock market goes down, yields also go down (because traders sell stocks to buy Treasuries). But this is not what is happening at the moment. [Maybe because in the textbook there is no trade war with China that keep dumping Treasuries to keep the Yuan afloat. BTFD!]

GS: individuals significantly added to positions in NDX and SPX single stocks on Wednesday and Thursday.

Bank of America card spending data continues to show consumers remain resilient, up +1.1% Y/Y in March.

UBS downgrades China's 2025 economic growth forecast to 3.4% from 4%, assuming current tariff hikes remain and China rolls out additional stimulus.

🚨On April 14, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $1.4m. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw a total net outflow of $5.9m, marking the fifth consecutive day of net outflows. -source

Spot Bitcoin ETF cumulative net flows chart vs daily closed price (14 apr 2025)

SPX death cross activated yesterday. Here are 1-year SPX returns after the Death Cross since 2000. [The death cross used to mean something before the great financial crisis. Now it’s the QE is close cross.]

April marks the most bearish outlook ever among BofA global fund managers

BofA GFM Survey: Gold is the most crowded trade

BofA GFM Survey: About 50% expect a recession

🚨Returns since beginning of March:

Equities:
-SPY: -9.0%
-QQQ: -9.8%

Bonds:
-TLT: -4.7%

"Real Money"
-Gold: +13.0%
-Silver: +3.8%
-BTC: +1.2%

Real money keeps outperforming.

Starting April 23, Google will enforce new crypto advertising rules across the EU, requiring advertisers to be authorized under MiCA as Crypto Asset Service Providers (CASPs) and complete Google’s verification process. -source

Lunar Crush: After peaking in Q4 of last year, we've seen a significant decrease in the social interactions for an "alt season" -tweet

USD 10Y low against the Swiss Franc

China Foreign Ministry: We will trade with more friends and become a stronger magnet for investment.

China Foreign Ministry: Facing external uncertainty, China will stay committed to joining hands rather than throwing punches

Warren Buffett is sitting on enough cash to buy 476 companies in the S&P 500

China orders halts to Boeing jet deliveries as trade war expands -Bloomberg