Development Bank of Singpore (DBS): The current tariff war is a lose lose situation for all countries, US included. Gold prices have room to rise further, especially as futures contract holders now demand physical delivery, potentially leading to a short squeeze and a leap in gold prices.
DBS: We remain overweight in U.S. technology despite broader market concerns. For China, we favor domestic consumption plays.
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🚨DBS: We expect further domestic stimulus from the Chinese government, which has significant leverage given its lower debt-to-GDP ratio (25%) compared to the U.S. (120%). [bullish crypto]
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🚨Goldman Sachs: 12-month target for the MSCI China index revised downward from 81 to 75, considering factors such as a higher effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports, a 4% GDP growth rate, a 14.5% broad deficit spending-to-GDP ratio in China, and modest depreciation pressures on the Chinese yuan (CNY). Additionally, Goldman Sachs has cut its 12-month CSI 300 target from 4,500 to 4,300.
🚨GS: China needs decisive and forceful fiscal stimulus, industry deregulation, and structural reforms. Diversifying exports and imports to non-U.S. markets and reallocating domestic capital to the stock market would also support China's economy.
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JP Morgan's Bob Michele: We've been seeing a complete deleveraging of positions and that's what's been putting a lot of downward pressure on Treasury prices
The Tariff/Trade War Bull Case
1. Global inflation⬆️=liquidity⬆️=Crypto⬆️
2. CN¥ ⬇️=🇨🇳capital flight⬆️=stables/crypto⬆️
All you have to do is BTFD for the next 6 months. Don't let Trump's tariff ON/OFF zig zags bamboozle you.
1. Global inflation⬆️=liquidity⬆️=Crypto⬆️
2. CN¥ ⬇️=🇨🇳capital flight⬆️=stables/crypto⬆️
All you have to do is BTFD for the next 6 months. Don't let Trump's tariff ON/OFF zig zags bamboozle you.
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At open: German DAX 30 index up over 2%, EURO STOXX 50 INDEXup nearly 2%, FTSE 100 index, SPANISH IBEX 35 index up over 1%
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The People’s Bank of China issues new gold import quotas in response to surging demand from institutional and retail investors amid escalating trade tensions -sources
BofA: China’s policymakers are expected to roll out stimulus plans soon in response to the shock from U.S. tariffs.
BofA: We believe China’s strategy is to follow a ‘retaliate, stimulate, negotiate’ approach. Fiscal stimulus is likely to play a major role, with BofA expecting another CNY2 trillion package, initially targeting consumption and later investment.
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Citi: Further policy easing is necessary, and the next few weeks could be a window for monetary policy actions. Liquidity support for exporters could be readily on the table should liquidity constraints become more acute. An RRR cut could send a stronger signal, while a rate cut may need to be coordinated with exchange rate constraints.
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