After a 70-year downtrend, U.S. tariffs are spiking. Paths into 2030 range from a manageable ~10% (ok), to disruptive ~25% (bad), to stagflationary >30% (ugly), hinging on elections, geopolitics, and inflation policy.

Lutnick: US tech tariff exemption may only be temporary

🚨Lutnick: Trump plans separate levy on exempted electronics amid trade war

🚨TRUMP: THERE WAS NO TARIFF "EXCEPTION" ANNOUNCED ON FRIDAY

Trump: nobody getting “off the hook" for unfair trade

🚨China has suspended exports of key rare earth minerals and magnets vital to global automotive, semiconductor, and aerospace industries amid escalating trade war

Nothing has changed from Friday despite the poor wording/FUD attempt by Trump. The tariff rate percentages for the products covered (Semis / Electronics) etc got reduced to 20% from 145%. Yes, not a full "exemption" but it’s exactly what U.S. Customs & Border Protection stated on Friday. Get used to these FUD games by Trump, we will see a lot of them. Just BTFD every time.

Futures start of the week:
-Equities Up
-Dollar Down
-Bonds Down

10Y now trading at an implied yield of 4.53%. Closed at 4.49% on Friday. Treasuries keep getting dumped for now.

Ray Dalio: I'm worried about something that is much worse than a recession

Binance: OM collapse was triggered by cross exchange deleveraging. Binance has warned users in OM's spot trading page that the token has undergone significant changes to its tokenomics increasing its supply. -tweet

Development Bank of Singpore (DBS): The current tariff war is a lose lose situation for all countries, US included. Gold prices have room to rise further, especially as futures contract holders now demand physical delivery, potentially leading to a short squeeze and a leap in gold prices.

DBS: We remain overweight in U.S. technology despite broader market concerns. For China, we favor domestic consumption plays.

🚨DBS: We expect further domestic stimulus from the Chinese government, which has significant leverage given its lower debt-to-GDP ratio (25%) compared to the U.S. (120%). [bullish crypto]

OKX CEO Star: OM collapse is a big scandal in the entire crypto industry. All on-chain unlocking and recharge data are public. OKX will make all of the reports ready! -tweet

🚨Goldman Sachs: 12-month target for the MSCI China index revised downward from 81 to 75, considering factors such as a higher effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports, a 4% GDP growth rate, a 14.5% broad deficit spending-to-GDP ratio in China, and modest depreciation pressures on the Chinese yuan (CNY). Additionally, Goldman Sachs has cut its 12-month CSI 300 target from 4,500 to 4,300.

🚨GS: China needs decisive and forceful fiscal stimulus, industry deregulation, and structural reforms. Diversifying exports and imports to non-U.S. markets and reallocating domestic capital to the stock market would also support China's economy.

🚨Tether CEO: USDT user growth of 13% in Q1 2025 -tweet

JP Morgan's Bob Michele: We've been seeing a complete deleveraging of positions and that's what's been putting a lot of downward pressure on Treasury prices

The Policy Uncertainty Index has been ruined forever.

The Tariff/Trade War Bull Case

1. Global inflation⬆️=liquidity⬆️=Crypto⬆️

2. CN¥ ⬇️=🇨🇳capital flight⬆️=stables/crypto⬆️

All you have to do is BTFD for the next 6 months. Don't let Trump's tariff ON/OFF zig zags bamboozle you.