YTD Performance by Asset Class (Jan 1 – Apr 12)

Japan doesn’t plan to use US Treasuries as tariff talk leverage -Bloomberg

Last week, the smart money vs dumb money confidence spread reached its highest point since 9/11.

🚨China: Tariff exemption "small step" to correct wrongdoings.

Ackman: Trump should pause China tariffs for 90 days to ease business transition and create space for negotiations -tweet

Grayscale Research points out that continued inflationary pressures in the coming period may be beneficial to scarce commodities such as Bitcoin and gold. -source

After a 70-year downtrend, U.S. tariffs are spiking. Paths into 2030 range from a manageable ~10% (ok), to disruptive ~25% (bad), to stagflationary >30% (ugly), hinging on elections, geopolitics, and inflation policy.

Lutnick: US tech tariff exemption may only be temporary

🚨Lutnick: Trump plans separate levy on exempted electronics amid trade war

🚨TRUMP: THERE WAS NO TARIFF "EXCEPTION" ANNOUNCED ON FRIDAY

Trump: nobody getting “off the hook" for unfair trade

🚨China has suspended exports of key rare earth minerals and magnets vital to global automotive, semiconductor, and aerospace industries amid escalating trade war

Nothing has changed from Friday despite the poor wording/FUD attempt by Trump. The tariff rate percentages for the products covered (Semis / Electronics) etc got reduced to 20% from 145%. Yes, not a full "exemption" but it’s exactly what U.S. Customs & Border Protection stated on Friday. Get used to these FUD games by Trump, we will see a lot of them. Just BTFD every time.

Futures start of the week:
-Equities Up
-Dollar Down
-Bonds Down

10Y now trading at an implied yield of 4.53%. Closed at 4.49% on Friday. Treasuries keep getting dumped for now.

Ray Dalio: I'm worried about something that is much worse than a recession

Binance: OM collapse was triggered by cross exchange deleveraging. Binance has warned users in OM's spot trading page that the token has undergone significant changes to its tokenomics increasing its supply. -tweet

Development Bank of Singpore (DBS): The current tariff war is a lose lose situation for all countries, US included. Gold prices have room to rise further, especially as futures contract holders now demand physical delivery, potentially leading to a short squeeze and a leap in gold prices.

DBS: We remain overweight in U.S. technology despite broader market concerns. For China, we favor domestic consumption plays.

🚨DBS: We expect further domestic stimulus from the Chinese government, which has significant leverage given its lower debt-to-GDP ratio (25%) compared to the U.S. (120%). [bullish crypto]