Bull Case
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Content here is for informational purposes only, always DYOR before making decisions.
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🚨TRUMP SAYS EXEMPTING SEMICONDUCTORS FROM HIGHER CHINA TARIFF. EXEMPTION IS RETROACTIVE TO APRIL 5. DUTIES SINCE APRIL 5 ON EXCLUDED CHIPS WILL BE REIMBURSED
🚨The US is considering using the country's gold reserves to purchase Bitcoin, according to statements from White House officials
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YTD Performance by Asset Class (Jan 1 – Apr 12)
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Japan doesn’t plan to use US Treasuries as tariff talk leverage -Bloomberg
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Last week, the smart money vs dumb money confidence spread reached its highest point since 9/11.
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🚨China: Tariff exemption "small step" to correct wrongdoings.
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Ackman: Trump should pause China tariffs for 90 days to ease business transition and create space for negotiations -tweet
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Grayscale Research points out that continued inflationary pressures in the coming period may be beneficial to scarce commodities such as Bitcoin and gold. -source
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After a 70-year downtrend, U.S. tariffs are spiking. Paths into 2030 range from a manageable ~10% (ok), to disruptive ~25% (bad), to stagflationary >30% (ugly), hinging on elections, geopolitics, and inflation policy.
Lutnick: US tech tariff exemption may only be temporary
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🚨Lutnick: Trump plans separate levy on exempted electronics amid trade war
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🚨TRUMP: THERE WAS NO TARIFF "EXCEPTION" ANNOUNCED ON FRIDAY
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Trump: nobody getting β€œoff the hook" for unfair trade
🚨China has suspended exports of key rare earth minerals and magnets vital to global automotive, semiconductor, and aerospace industries amid escalating trade war
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Nothing has changed from Friday despite the poor wording/FUD attempt by Trump. The tariff rate percentages for the products covered (Semis / Electronics) etc got reduced to 20% from 145%. Yes, not a full "exemption" but it’s exactly what U.S. Customs & Border Protection stated on Friday. Get used to these FUD games by Trump, we will see a lot of them. Just BTFD every time.
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Futures start of the week:
-Equities Up
-Dollar Down
-Bonds Down
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10Y now trading at an implied yield of 4.53%. Closed at 4.49% on Friday. Treasuries keep getting dumped for now.
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Ray Dalio: I'm worried about something that is much worse than a recession
Binance: OM collapse was triggered by cross exchange deleveraging. Binance has warned users in OM's spot trading page that the token has undergone significant changes to its tokenomics increasing its supply. -tweet