Credit markets freezing on the tariff FUD. [just BTFD!]

Once in a lifetime opportunity.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection releases detailed guidelines on tariff exemptions for select products, including semiconductors, electronic devices, and AI servers. The exempted categories cover about 22% of US imports from China.

Do you agree?

White House spokesperson: Trump has made it clear America cannot rely on China to manufacturing critical technologies such as semiconductors, chips, smartphones, and laptops

White House official: Trump has stated that autos, steel, pharmaceuticals, chips, and other specific materials will be included in specific tariffs to ensure tariffs are applied fairly and effectively

Bloomberg: Trump set to greenlight deep-sea mining of critical metals from the Pacific seabed via executive order, aiming to secure rare earths and cut reliance on China, which controls ~70% of global supply. Stockpiling plans are also in play amid rising US-China tensions.

Tariff exemptions, and rejection of exemptions, are correlated with firm-level political connections. Or, in the common tongue, bribes. He isn't capitulating, he is just rewarding his donors.

🚨TRUMP SAYS EXEMPTING SEMICONDUCTORS FROM HIGHER CHINA TARIFF. EXEMPTION IS RETROACTIVE TO APRIL 5. DUTIES SINCE APRIL 5 ON EXCLUDED CHIPS WILL BE REIMBURSED

He called it.

🚨The US is considering using the country's gold reserves to purchase Bitcoin, according to statements from White House officials

YTD Performance by Asset Class (Jan 1 – Apr 12)

Japan doesn’t plan to use US Treasuries as tariff talk leverage -Bloomberg

Last week, the smart money vs dumb money confidence spread reached its highest point since 9/11.

🚨China: Tariff exemption "small step" to correct wrongdoings.

Ackman: Trump should pause China tariffs for 90 days to ease business transition and create space for negotiations -tweet

Grayscale Research points out that continued inflationary pressures in the coming period may be beneficial to scarce commodities such as Bitcoin and gold. -source

After a 70-year downtrend, U.S. tariffs are spiking. Paths into 2030 range from a manageable ~10% (ok), to disruptive ~25% (bad), to stagflationary >30% (ugly), hinging on elections, geopolitics, and inflation policy.

Lutnick: US tech tariff exemption may only be temporary