23 times the S&P has gained at least 5% in one day. The next day and a week out, fairly weak returns. But a year later? Up 26.9% on avg and higher more than 91% of the time.
This earnings season isn’t about corporate results. It’s about tariffs. Macro fears mean we can’t be too nuanced about how individual companies are doing when macro is so bad.
Just months ago, options traders were extremely bullish. Now, they’re loading up on puts (shorts). This was last seen during the 2008 and COVID crashes.