Bull Case
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Content here is for informational purposes only, always DYOR before making decisions.
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China Commerce Ministry: If US insists on its own way, China will follow it to the end.
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As trump announced new China tariffs, whales kept accumulating into short bonds 2x ETF.
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Rumour: Trump asking the Supreme Court if he can fire Jerome Powell
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China Foreign Ministry: China does not seek a trade war, but it is not afraid of one. The U.S. cause lacks public support and is doomed to fail.
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Robin Brooks (chief GS FX Strategist): This trade war was really always about the US vs China. The US made a strategic error by picking fights with everyone, instead of just focusing on China. The 90 day pause fixes that. It also gives Xi an off-ramp if he reverses China's retaliatory tariffs.
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US Treasury yields seem to have stabilized (for now) after Trump's tariff pause.
Japan's PM Ishiba: US tariffs implementation was extremely regrettable. Will set up a taskforce to mull measures against tariffs.
TD Securities: Trade policy uncertainty could continue to weigh on U.S. economic growth, despite tariff pause. We believe the Fed will cut interest rates meaningfully this year.
EU Diplomats: EU considers pausing its countermeasures due on April 15 against US.
March CPI forecasts suggest core CPI at 3.0%, which would be a four-year low. While hard data appears solid on the surface, nobody cares because it’s seen as lagging, given we’re in the midst of a policy shock.
China to moderately reduce imports of US films -source(Chinese)
AAII Bears is now at 58.9%. This is the 7th straight week with over 50% bears, matching the record in October 1990, which was the bottom of that bear market.
WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: Conversations on China have not begun yet - CNBC interview
WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: The bond market contributed at least a little bit to the decision to pause tariffs
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U.S. CPI: +2.4% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +2.5%)
U.S. CORE CPI: +2.8% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +3.0%)
CPI breakdown
US EGGS PRICES ROSE 60.4% COMPARED WITH A YEAR AGO: ANALYST
Inflation below expectations. DXY going sub 100. Global M2 surging.
Bank of England's Breeden: It is very unclear what overall landscape will be for tariffs in medium term. US tariffs are biggest change in trade policy in a century.
Russian Central Bank Gold/forex reserves $658bn in latest week vs $645.6bn in previous week.
Trump: Biggest Tax cuts in USA history are getting close -tweet