Bull Case
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Content here is for informational purposes only, always DYOR before making decisions.
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Citi: Escalating U.S.-China trade conflict poses risks of spillover. We share the concern that meaningful negotiations may not resume before serious damage is done.
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CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY, ON U.S. TARIFFS: CHINA WILL NOT SIT BY AND LET INTERNATIONAL TRADE RULES AND MULTILATERAL SYSTEM BE UNDERMINED. CHINA HAS TAKEN, AND WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE, RESOLUTE COUNTERMEASURES TO SAFEGUARD IS SOVEREIGNTY, SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT INTERESTS
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The Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced measures to assist foreign trade enterprises facing export challenges by expanding domestic market access and hosting campaigns such as "Foreign Trade Premium Products China Tour" to promote high-quality export goods domestically
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China Commerce Ministry: If US insists on its own way, China will follow it to the end.
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As trump announced new China tariffs, whales kept accumulating into short bonds 2x ETF.
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Rumour: Trump asking the Supreme Court if he can fire Jerome Powell
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China Foreign Ministry: China does not seek a trade war, but it is not afraid of one. The U.S. cause lacks public support and is doomed to fail.
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Robin Brooks (chief GS FX Strategist): This trade war was really always about the US vs China. The US made a strategic error by picking fights with everyone, instead of just focusing on China. The 90 day pause fixes that. It also gives Xi an off-ramp if he reverses China's retaliatory tariffs.
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US Treasury yields seem to have stabilized (for now) after Trump's tariff pause.
Japan's PM Ishiba: US tariffs implementation was extremely regrettable. Will set up a taskforce to mull measures against tariffs.
TD Securities: Trade policy uncertainty could continue to weigh on U.S. economic growth, despite tariff pause. We believe the Fed will cut interest rates meaningfully this year.
EU Diplomats: EU considers pausing its countermeasures due on April 15 against US.
March CPI forecasts suggest core CPI at 3.0%, which would be a four-year low. While hard data appears solid on the surface, nobody cares because it’s seen as lagging, given we’re in the midst of a policy shock.
China to moderately reduce imports of US films -source(Chinese)
AAII Bears is now at 58.9%. This is the 7th straight week with over 50% bears, matching the record in October 1990, which was the bottom of that bear market.
WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: Conversations on China have not begun yet - CNBC interview
WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: The bond market contributed at least a little bit to the decision to pause tariffs
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U.S. CPI: +2.4% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +2.5%)
U.S. CORE CPI: +2.8% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +3.0%)
CPI breakdown
US EGGS PRICES ROSE 60.4% COMPARED WITH A YEAR AGO: ANALYST
Inflation below expectations. DXY going sub 100. Global M2 surging.