The V-shaped market playbook

Trump: China is the biggest abuser in history. Last year China made $1tn off trade with the United States and now I reversed it. Somebody had to do it. I'm honored to have done it. China wants to make a deal but doesn't know how to go about it. I'm sure they will figure it out.

S&P 500 SEES LARGEST ONE-DAY GAIN SINCE OCT 28, 2008; NASDAQ HITS BIGGEST GAIN SINCE JAN 3, 2001; DOW'S LARGEST JUMP SINCE MARCH 24, 2020

Historic.

Fentanyl tariffs on Canada and Mexico remain unchanged. -White House

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: The US expects the EU will delay planned tariff retaliation.

Trump: I would talk or meet with China’s President Xi.

Trump: I don't want US steel to go to Japan. We love Japan, but US Steel is a very special company.

Trump: Everybody wants to make a deal on tariffs

SEC: Approves listing and trading of options on the Bitwise Ethereum ETF, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust, and the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust.

Trump: I'm not concerned about escalation with China outside trade war.

BTC $83K

Dollar rebounds:

DXY bounces back above 103 (from 101.83).
USD/JPY hits 148.27 (from 144.01).
CHF weakens.

Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecasts for China's GDP growth to 4% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, from 4.5% and 4.0% previously, citing the effects of tariffs. The report anticipates the Chinese government will further intensify policy easing, projecting 60bp of policy rate cuts (vs. 40bp previously).

Citi: Escalating U.S.-China trade conflict poses risks of spillover. We share the concern that meaningful negotiations may not resume before serious damage is done.

CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY, ON U.S. TARIFFS: CHINA WILL NOT SIT BY AND LET INTERNATIONAL TRADE RULES AND MULTILATERAL SYSTEM BE UNDERMINED. CHINA HAS TAKEN, AND WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE, RESOLUTE COUNTERMEASURES TO SAFEGUARD IS SOVEREIGNTY, SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT INTERESTS

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced measures to assist foreign trade enterprises facing export challenges by expanding domestic market access and hosting campaigns such as "Foreign Trade Premium Products China Tour" to promote high-quality export goods domestically

China Commerce Ministry: If US insists on its own way, China will follow it to the end.

As trump announced new China tariffs, whales kept accumulating into short bonds 2x ETF.