📉 Snapshot
- Equities: Down
- Treasuries: Down
- Crude: Down
- Dollar: Down

📊 Equities

S&P 500: –1.57% at 4,983
Nasdaq 100: –1.95% at 17,090
Dow Jones: –0.84% at 37,646
Russell 2K: –2.57% at 1,764

Bloomberg: The ProShares Ultra Crude oil fund just had its biggest outflow since 2020, as traders take profits from bets that oil prices would fall during a 4-day slump. This is a peak fear signal.

The US imports over $1bn per day from China. With >100% tariffs hitting in 7h, the US Customs will begin taxing importers ~$1bn per day on China goods alone.

Distribution of US Investor Exposure. Investor exposure is now in the bottom 1% of historical risk appetite. This is the time to go contrarian with an inevitable monetary inflation event.

Jim Bianco: Tariffs have broken the bond market. The 30 year yield is now 5% after rising 0.67% in 3 days. The last time yields rose this much in 3 days was 1982. This kind of historic move is caused by a forced liquidation, not human managers making decisions about the outlook for rates. While technically possible, I don't think China is selling. -tweets

Trump's China tariff and a dozen other tariffs went into effect 1 hour ago

1 year inflation swap is rising sharply while 5 and 10 year inflation swaps have actually gone down reflecting expections. While investors are expecting prices to go up in the short run, they also expect a recession & sharp slowdown in the long term.

China launches comprehensive market rescue: PBOC, Central Huijin (sovereign wealth fund), state owned enterprises, and regulators are deploying real capital, backstops with buybacks, long-term liquidity, and reform measures.
[Chinese capital injections are strongly correlated with BTC ATHs]

SOURCES: CHINA IS UNDERTAKING LARGE-SCALE SELL-OFF OF U.S. TREASURIES

ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF TQQQ (3x long QQQ ETF) saw a $1.5 Billion inflow within the last few days, the largest daily inflow in history

The RSI of SPY (an S&P500 ETF) is at the COVID bottom level

China Commerce Ministry: China is unwilling to fight a trade war, but the Chinese government will never sit idly by and watch the legitimate rights and interests of the Chinese people be damaged and deprived. China has a firm will and abundant means, will resolutely counteract and fight to the end -Xinhua

Bank of Indonesia says it will act boldly to maintain market stability without cutting rates as it blames Trump’s 104% China tariff for rupiah's record low since 1998. -Reuters [global hyperinflation => capital flight in every country across the globe => crypto]

China Central Bank (PBOC) asks major state-owned banks to reduce us dollar purchases, and to withhold dollar purchase for proprietary accounts. PBOC asks state banks to strengthen checks executing orders for clients. PBOC will not resort to immediate sharp yuan depreciation to counteract impact from us tariffs.

Japan government and ruling coalition begin consideration to distribute cash handout as part of measure to cushion the blow from Trump tariffs. Distributing 40,000-50,000 Yen per person among plans for consideration for Japanese government and ruling coalition economic measure.

Taiwan Central Bank: We will closely monitor impact of Trump's tariff policy on domestic industries, as well as their financing situation, and take timely financial stabilisation measures when necessary. We make appropriate use of monetary policy tools to inject funds and maintain adequate liquidity in the banking system.

ECB's Villeroy: The shock from a trade war is not negligible but no recession in sight.
ECB's Rehn: The case for cutting in April is supported by downside risks materialising. Tariffs and increased uncertainty already having adverse effects on economic growth.

JPMorgan cuts 2025 UK GDP growth forecast to 0.6% (Q4/Q4) vs prior forecast of 1.1%. JPMorgan now expects an additional interest rate cut from the BoE in September taking the year-end rate to 3.5% vs prior forecast of 3.75. UK economy expected to take a short term hit from US tariffs.