Bull Case
ECB President Christine Lagarde said stagflation is a label that belongs to the 1970s and shouldn't be used to describe the current predicament of the euro zone. Now everyone is echoing Kevin Warsh
Fitch: Belgium, France and UK having least headroom to respond to new energy crisis caused by Iran conflict.
The ECB can't hike yet markets are pricing in a 92% probability of a 25bps hike at the June 11 meeting
The ECB can't hike yet markets are pricing in a 92% probability of a 25bps hike at the June 11 meeting
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Morgan Stanley is now offering direct spot trading in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and more through E*Trade, with super low fees around 0.5% that beat Coinbase, Robinhood and Schwab
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Bull Case
Taiwanese ambassador: despite facing no border threat, China is engaged in a historic military buildup in clear preparation for aggression against Taiwan. Taiwan is the atomic clock of this cycle. Western Central Banks will see through short term inflation…
Greer: looking for stability with China; Trump and Xi to discuss China's Iran oil purchases
Trump is scheduled to meet Xi on May 14–15
Trump is scheduled to meet Xi on May 14–15
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Bull Case
🚨SOFTWARE FORWARD EARNINGS RISING STEADILY EVEN AS STOCKS CRUSHED BECAUSE OF AI INDUCED LAYOFFS, TRANSFORMATION RISK It's the AI led productivity boom, stupid. Fire your old employees first. Then replace them with AI literate ones. That's when profits go…
US Job cuts total 83,387 in April up 38% from March but down 21% from a year earlier, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The month marked the 3rd highest April total since 2009.
YTD layoffs reached 300,749, down 50% from the same period in 2025. Tech firms led cuts, often citing AI investment and innovation. AI was the top reason in April, driving 21,490 layoffs, or 26% of the total.
YTD layoffs reached 300,749, down 50% from the same period in 2025. Tech firms led cuts, often citing AI investment and innovation. AI was the top reason in April, driving 21,490 layoffs, or 26% of the total.
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Bull Case
US Job cuts total 83,387 in April up 38% from March but down 21% from a year earlier, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The month marked the 3rd highest April total since 2009. YTD layoffs reached 300,749, down 50% from the same period in 2025.…
Samsung offered staff ~13% of chip operating profit after AI drove Q1 net profit to $36.1B. But unions want 15% plus a 7% wage hike and may start an 18 day strike May 21.
The AI productivity boom is here. Brace for pump.
The AI productivity boom is here. Brace for pump.
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Bull Case
🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered…
Chinese Premier Li Qiang to Senator Daines: 'Taiwan issue is the core of China's core interests.'
Premier Li Qiang met with a US delegation led by Senator Steve Daines in Beijing today. According to reports from CCTV and Xinhua Li defined it as the 'first red line' that must not be crossed in US-China relations. That's China's position before Trump arrives in Beijing next week.
Premier Li Qiang met with a US delegation led by Senator Steve Daines in Beijing today. According to reports from CCTV and Xinhua Li defined it as the 'first red line' that must not be crossed in US-China relations. That's China's position before Trump arrives in Beijing next week.
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Bull Case
🚨LARGE INFORMED PLAYERS HAVE BEEN RISK ON SINCE LIBERATION DAY AND ARE INCREASING THEIR EXPOSURE FURTHER DURING THIS GEOPOL DIP. *March 2021: Admiral Davidson, head of US Indo-Pacific Command, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee that a Chinese…
Trump administration plans to invite CEOs from NVIDIA, Apple, Exxon on China trip - Semafor
These are the same CEOs the CIA briefed in July 2023 about China's military buildup to invade Taiwan in 2027. Seems like a tour to convince big tech CEOs that a Taiwan crisis is inevitable and that reshoring needs to move faster.
These are the same CEOs the CIA briefed in July 2023 about China's military buildup to invade Taiwan in 2027. Seems like a tour to convince big tech CEOs that a Taiwan crisis is inevitable and that reshoring needs to move faster.
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Bull Case
BTC holding above $80k is a good reason to tune out the noise from the Iran War. Iran has become largely irrelevant. All focus now will be on the Clarity Act, Kevin Warsh and Taiwan.
The CLARITY Act could be considered and revised by the US Senate Banking Committee as early as next week - Coinbase US Policy Vice President Kara Calvert
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Bull Case
Yardeni: Kevin Warsh agrees with us that technological innovations (especially AI) are boosting productivity, which means the economy can grow faster without inflationary consequences. Fed models should be updated to account for the fact that this increased…
Fed's Goolsbee: worried about markets trying to price in AI productivity gains before they arrive; not a big fan of using words to jawbone policy decisions
Golsbee taking a jab at Warsh
Golsbee taking a jab at Warsh
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Bull Case
🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered…
UBS Group bought the war FUD: the $6.6 trillion Swiss banking giant has accumulated a total 6.31 million shares of Strategy worth $1.12 billion, adding 3.69 million shares since January.
UBS held 2.52 million shares ($415 million) in January, 5.76 million ($805 million) in February, and 6.31 million ($1.12 billion) in May.
UBS held 2.52 million shares ($415 million) in January, 5.76 million ($805 million) in February, and 6.31 million ($1.12 billion) in May.
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Bull Case
🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered…
The copper-to-gold ratio is flashing an important cyle bottom and a strong risk-on signal.
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