Bull Case
ECB Lagarde warns of downside risks to growth; warns of inflation risks skewed to the upside She probably won't hike this year because of risks to growth
Lagarde: Given our position, six weeks is the right time to evaluate progress.
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Bull Case
Same story all over the globe: CenBank officials want to hike but CenBank leadership stalls because they have been instructed to run it hot and hold off any hikes until 2027
Lagarde: ECB debated various options including rate hike; some governors might present opposing views on proposals
But they need to sit down and do as I say. The Fed wants to run it hot and we will run it hot too.
But they need to sit down and do as I say. The Fed wants to run it hot and we will run it hot too.
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Bull Case
Consumer spending rose 1.6%, driven by services, while business investment jumped 10.4%, led by AI-related outlays. The economy has remained resilient despite higher oil prices and supply disruptions from the Iran war, though risks persist if consumers turn…
US gasoline at $4.3, the highest since 2022
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Bull Case
Lagarde: ECB debated various options including rate hike; some governors might present opposing views on proposals But they need to sit down and do as I say. The Fed wants to run it hot and we will run it hot too.
Lagarde: ECB is currently not seeing second-round effects; while energy prices are spiking, the ECB doesn't see workers demanding massive raises and companies hiking prices.
Dovish talk in a hawkish environment
Dovish talk in a hawkish environment
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Bull Case
Lagarde: ECB debated various options including rate hike; some governors might present opposing views on proposals But they need to sit down and do as I say. The Fed wants to run it hot and we will run it hot too.
WH Adviser Hassett: It would be a policy error for the ECB and the Fed to hike rates.
Lol
Lol
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Bull Case
WH Adviser Hassett: It would be a policy error for the ECB and the Fed to hike rates. Lol
White House Adviser Hassett: Productivity boom will keep core prices under control.
Nobody uses AI in EU just saying
Nobody uses AI in EU just saying
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Telegram has officially staked 2.2 million TON, valued at approximately $2.88M, to operate as a primary validator on the TON blockchain.
Bull Case
Analysts scrap China rate cut calls following Politburo meeting that omitted references to rate and RRR tools, alongside rising inflation pressures linked to higher oil prices and ample interbank liquidity. Economists at Goldman and Nomura have dropped forecasts…
Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng: held a call with USTR Greer and Treasury Secretary Bessent, candid and in-depth exchanges. China raised concerns about the recent restrictive measures from the US. Both agree to manage differences and enhance cooperation
China is desperate to project an image of "business as usual" and "Yuan stability" to prevent a massive capital flight. For Xi, a successful summit with Trump is less about policy and more about optics. He needs to signal to big money at home that the trade war remains negotiable to prevent capital flight before the 2027 Taiwan crisis.
China is desperate to project an image of "business as usual" and "Yuan stability" to prevent a massive capital flight. For Xi, a successful summit with Trump is less about policy and more about optics. He needs to signal to big money at home that the trade war remains negotiable to prevent capital flight before the 2027 Taiwan crisis.
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Bull Case
🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered…
Scott Rubner: going to be biggest year of buybacks ever, US corporates are the biggest buyer of stocks with $428 billion YTD as of April. This puts the market on pace for over $1 trillion in total executions this year
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Bull Case
Scott Rubner: going to be biggest year of buybacks ever, US corporates are the biggest buyer of stocks with $428 billion YTD as of April. This puts the market on pace for over $1 trillion in total executions this year
Bloomberg just cut off scott rubner interview to report on gas prices
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Bull Case
🚨UPCOMING FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH: WE'RE IN THE EARLY INNINGS OF A STRUCTURAL DECLINE IN PRICES In 2026 Warsh will send everything fugazi with his AI-led productivity boom thesis. [BTFD before everything rips!]
ECB President Christine Lagarde said stagflation is a label that belongs to the 1970s and shouldn't be used to describe the current predicament of the euro zone.
Now everyone is echoing Kevin Warsh
Now everyone is echoing Kevin Warsh
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Bull Case
The Trump administration is 'asking other countries to join a new international coalition' to help open the Strait of Hormuz - WSJ
Trump weighing plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz while maintaining Iran port blockade and coordinating with allies to raise costs on Tehran - US official
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Bull Case
Over $8tn in US debt must be rolled over this year. CLARITY is needed to get boomers to fomo with their entire 401(s)s, IRAs, Roth IRAs and pension funds at the 2026 blow off top with a single click. Then old money dumps on boomers and rotates back into…
🚨 Senate Banking is now targeting the week of May 11 to mark up the Clarity Act
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Bull Case
US-Iran standoff shows no sign of easing with Trump saying the naval blockade is "choking" Iran's oil exports and working effectively. US military commanders are expected to brief Trump on new Iran strike options, including limited operations aimed at breaking…
Iran only shipped 4M bbls of crude out of gulf of Oman between April 13-25 as US blockade tightens exports - Vortexa
Trackable exports down more than 80% since March although exact calculations of Iran exports is impossible as tankers switching off tracking systems
Trackable exports down more than 80% since March although exact calculations of Iran exports is impossible as tankers switching off tracking systems
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Bull Case
Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng: held a call with USTR Greer and Treasury Secretary Bessent, candid and in-depth exchanges. China raised concerns about the recent restrictive measures from the US. Both agree to manage differences and enhance cooperation China…
Bessent: this morning convened talks with vice premier He Lifeng to discuss Trump's trip to China
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Bull Case
Bessent: this morning convened talks with vice premier He Lifeng to discuss Trump's trip to China
Bessent: stressed that China's recent provocative extraterritorial regulations have a chilling effect on global supply chains
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Bull Case
Bessent: stressed that China's recent provocative extraterritorial regulations have a chilling effect on global supply chains
Bessent is referring to two new decrees signed by Premier Li Qiang in April 2026 in response to Treasury's sanctions on Chinese refineries:
Decree No. 835: It allows China to punish any organization or individual (even outside China) that complies with foreign sanctions (like US export controls) against Chinese firms; It establishes a new blacklist for entities that "promote" foreign sanctions.
Decree No. 834: It restricts "investigations and information collection" related to Chinese supply chains creating a direct conflict with laws (like the US UFLPA or EU CSDDD) that require companies to audit their suppliers for labor and environmental standards.
Decree No. 835: It allows China to punish any organization or individual (even outside China) that complies with foreign sanctions (like US export controls) against Chinese firms; It establishes a new blacklist for entities that "promote" foreign sanctions.
Decree No. 834: It restricts "investigations and information collection" related to Chinese supply chains creating a direct conflict with laws (like the US UFLPA or EU CSDDD) that require companies to audit their suppliers for labor and environmental standards.
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Iran leadership in shambles: Sources told Iran International that Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are seeking the removal of Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, accusing him of coordinating nuclear talks with Revolutionary Guards commander Ahmad Vahidi without presidential oversight. The dispute reflects broader tensions over wartime governance and control of negotiations. Araghchi reportedly acted independently in recent weeks, prompting dissatisfaction from Pezeshkian. Separately, divisions persist within parliament over the negotiating team, while Ghalibaf is said to have stepped back from talks before Araghchi engaged Pakistan with proposals later rejected by the US.
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Bull Case
🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered…
US manufacturing activity rose to 54.5 in April, topping the 54.0 estimate and prior reading
The 2026 global reflation trade is firing on all cylinders.
The 2026 global reflation trade is firing on all cylinders.
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Forwarded from Techleaks24 🇵🇸
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primal.net
Demystifying Monero Privacy For Bitcoiners: How it works and why it's promoted so aggressively despite being so bad