2% GDP growth in Q1 vs 2.2% forecast supported by consumer spending (weakest pace in four quarters) and business spending

Now we need Kevin Warsh to cut rates for more growth and less inflation.

Consumer spending rose 1.6%, driven by services, while business investment jumped 10.4%, led by AI-related outlays. The economy has remained resilient despite higher oil prices and supply disruptions from the Iran war, though risks persist if consumers turn cautious. Inflation pressures intensified, with the Fed's preferred PCE index rising 0.7% in March and 3.5% year on year, partly due to surging gasoline prices.

ECB Lagarde warns of downside risks to growth; warns of inflation risks skewed to the upside

She probably won't hike this year because of risks to growth

Lagarde: Given our position, six weeks is the right time to evaluate progress.

Lagarde: ECB debated various options including rate hike; some governors might present opposing views on proposals

But they need to sit down and do as I say. The Fed wants to run it hot and we will run it hot too.

US gasoline at $4.3, the highest since 2022

Lagarde: ECB is currently not seeing second-round effects; while energy prices are spiking, the ECB doesn't see workers demanding massive raises and companies hiking prices.

Dovish talk in a hawkish environment

WH Adviser Hassett: It would be a policy error for the ECB and the Fed to hike rates.

Lol

White House Adviser Hassett: Productivity boom will keep core prices under control.

Nobody uses AI in EU just saying

Telegram has officially staked 2.2 million TON, valued at approximately $2.88M, to operate as a primary validator on the TON blockchain.

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng: held a call with USTR Greer and Treasury Secretary Bessent, candid and in-depth exchanges. China raised concerns about the recent restrictive measures from the US. Both agree to manage differences and enhance cooperation

China is desperate to project an image of "business as usual" and "Yuan stability" to prevent a massive capital flight. For Xi, a successful summit with Trump is less about policy and more about optics. He needs to signal to big money at home that the trade war remains negotiable to prevent capital flight before the 2027 Taiwan crisis.

Scott Rubner: going to be biggest year of buybacks ever, US corporates are the biggest buyer of stocks with $428 billion YTD as of April. This puts the market on pace for over $1 trillion in total executions this year

Bloomberg just cut off scott rubner interview to report on gas prices

ECB President Christine Lagarde said stagflation is a label that belongs to the 1970s and shouldn't be used to describe the current predicament of the euro zone.

Now everyone is echoing Kevin Warsh

Trump weighing plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz while maintaining Iran port blockade and coordinating with allies to raise costs on Tehran - US official

🚨 Senate Banking is now targeting the week of May 11 to mark up the Clarity Act

Iran only shipped 4M bbls of crude out of gulf of Oman between April 13-25 as US blockade tightens exports - Vortexa

Trackable exports down more than 80% since March although exact calculations of Iran exports is impossible as tankers switching off tracking systems

Bessent: this morning convened talks with vice premier He Lifeng to discuss Trump's trip to China

Bessent: stressed that China's recent provocative extraterritorial regulations have a chilling effect on global supply chains

Bessent is referring to two new decrees signed by Premier Li Qiang in April 2026 in response to Treasury's sanctions on Chinese refineries:

Decree No. 835: It allows China to punish any organization or individual (even outside China) that complies with foreign sanctions (like US export controls) against Chinese firms; It establishes a new blacklist for entities that "promote" foreign sanctions.

Decree No. 834: It restricts "investigations and information collection" related to Chinese supply chains creating a direct conflict with laws (like the US UFLPA or EU CSDDD) that require companies to audit their suppliers for labor and environmental standards.

Iran leadership in shambles: Sources told Iran International that Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are seeking the removal of Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, accusing him of coordinating nuclear talks with Revolutionary Guards commander Ahmad Vahidi without presidential oversight. The dispute reflects broader tensions over wartime governance and control of negotiations. Araghchi reportedly acted independently in recent weeks, prompting dissatisfaction from Pezeshkian. Separately, divisions persist within parliament over the negotiating team, while Ghalibaf is said to have stepped back from talks before Araghchi engaged Pakistan with proposals later rejected by the US.