Bull Case
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Bull Case
China home prices fall to lowest levels in at least 20 years, extending property slump that has erased decades of household wealth Xi will attack Taiwan to divert attention from the immediate problem
China central bank:

*Outstanding individual mortgage loans -3.1% y/y

*Outstanding property development loans -5.1% y/y

*Outstanding property loans -3.4% y/y
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Bull Case
UAE Energy Minister: The decision will enable us to work with our partners and investors to ensure we are meeting the future requirements of the world relating to crude products, petrochemicals, and others, as well as gas. Multipolar world order innit
Trump met top energy executives at the White House to discuss the energy impact of the Iran war and broader market conditions. Attendees included Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, alongside officials such as Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
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White House: Trump will be satisfied once Warsh confirmed (30 min ago)
Senator Warren: a vote to advance Warsh is a vote to help Donald trump take over the Fed; We should not be advancing Warsh today
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Hegseth declines to say how many more months he expects Iran war to continue - NYT
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US to Withdraw USS Gerald R. Ford from Middle East, reducing carrier presence

The US will send the USS Gerald R. Ford home after a record deployment of about 10 months, easing strain on roughly 4,500 sailors but reducing military firepower in the Middle East as tensions with Iran persist. The carrier, one of three in the region alongside the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS George H.W. Bush, is expected to return to Virginia around mid-May for repairs after extended operations and mechanical issues.
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Bull Case
Today is FOMC day. 2:00 PM ET Rate decision 2:30 PM ET Powell speaks This will probably be Powell's last presser
Trump would gain Fed board Majority if Powell leaves Powell is currently the only governor appointed by presidents of both parties, having been named by Barack Obama, elevated by Trump, and reappointed by Joe Biden. Trump also appointed current governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, and is set to fill another seat with Kevin Warsh.
FOMC statement: The implications of Middle East developments for the US economy are uncertain.
Putin warned US against new military action in Iran in Trump call - Cremlin
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Fed's Powell: I will leave when I think it's appropriate to do so
Powell to remain Fed Governor after Chair term ends, backs Warsh transition.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he will continue serving as a governor after his chair term ends May 15, with his board seat running through 2028. He indicated he would keep a low profile, noting there is only one chair and that Kevin Warsh will assume the role upon confirmation. Powell said a Justice Department decision to drop a probe into Fed renovation costs cleared the way for Warsh's confirmation. Powell added, "My concern is legal attacks on the Fed, which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors."
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FOMC statement: The implications of Middle East developments for the US economy are uncertain.
Powell: prospects of core inflation rise are real; policy in a good place to wait and see
Meta launches stablecoin payments for content creators via Stripe, using USDCfrom Circle on the Solana and Polygon - The Information
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Bessent: we're sprinting for the finish line with Iran
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Bessent: we're sprinting for the finish line with Iran
Bessent: the UAE and several others have requested swap lines
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Bessent: it would be highly unusual for Powell to stay on the Fed board
Trump: Jerome 'Too late' Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can't find a job anywhere else. Nobody wants him.
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The Trump administration is 'asking other countries to join a new international coalition' to help open the Strait of Hormuz - WSJ
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