US President Donald Trump has instructed aides to plan an extended blockade of Iran. Officials say he sees it as lower-risk than resuming bombing or walking away, aiming to pressure Tehran into nuclear capitulation via sustained economic squeeze on oil/ports. No swift exit expected.

BTC sees this as TACO and is pumping

In the past 2 hours Tom Lee's Bitmine bought 45,000 ETH worth $103.5 million

Apple's next chief John Ternus confronts break from China playbook – FT

Unlike Cook, whose career was defined by building the China centric supply chain, Ternus is inheriting a company that is actively trying to diversify away from China (shifting production to India and Vietnam) due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks.

Canada announces plan to ban cryptocurrency ATMs citing their role in financial crimes. Nearly 4000 machines, world's highest density per capita, to be prohibited.

The move follows a high profile investigation (the "Coin Laundry" series) by The Toronto Star and the ICIJ earlier this year. That investigation revealed that dozens of crypto ATMs in major hubs like Toronto were operating unlawfully, often without being registered with FINTRAC

Today is FOMC day.

2:00 PM ET Rate decision
2:30 PM ET Powell speaks

This will probably be Powell's last presser

Clarity Act hits a wall in senate as Democrats demand strict ethics rules targeting Trump family's $1b+ crypto empire. This is widely viewed as a direct response to World Liberty Financial (WLF) and other crypto-related interests associated with the Trump family, which have been valued by some analysts at or above the $1 billion mark.

Republican Thom Tillis has also stated he will vote against the Clarity Act in the Senate Banking Committee unless it includes specific ethics provisions. With his defection in the banking committee the bill could fail to reach the floor entirely. Republicans currently need at least 7 Democratic votes to reach the 60-vote threshold for cloture in the Senate floor.

Money markets now fully pricing three 25 bp rate hikes from the European Central Bank this year

Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl has endorsed Bitcoin as part of reserve strategy, during his Bitcoin 2026 keynote in Las Vegas. He proposed allocating around one percent of reserves to Bitcoin exposure.

Analysts scrap China rate cut calls following Politburo meeting that omitted references to rate and RRR tools, alongside rising inflation pressures linked to higher oil prices and ample interbank liquidity.

Economists at Goldman and Nomura have dropped forecasts for China monetary easing this year. Nomura pushed expected rate and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to 2027, from prior calls for a 50 bps RRR cut in Q2 and a 10 bps rate cut in Q4. Goldman also removed its forecast for a 50 bps RRR cut in 2026, while Bank of America withdrew expectations for two rate cuts totaling 20 bps in 2026. Economists cited reduced urgency for stimulus, with Barclays saying rate cuts are unlikely unless growth falls below 4.5%.

China's only urgency is Yuan stability to prevent a massive capital flight. If the Yuan weakens too much, it would trigger capital flight. The Yuan has been getting stronger since Liberation Day, a massive bull trap before it collapses in 2027 when Xi moves on Taiwan.

China central bank:

*Outstanding individual mortgage loans -3.1% y/y

*Outstanding property development loans -5.1% y/y

*Outstanding property loans -3.4% y/y

Trump met top energy executives at the White House to discuss the energy impact of the Iran war and broader market conditions. Attendees included Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, alongside officials such as Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Senator Warren: a vote to advance Warsh is a vote to help Donald trump take over the Fed; We should not be advancing Warsh today

Trump and oil companies discussed steps to continue Iran blockade for months if needed - White House official

Senate votes on Fed Chair nominee Warsh; Nomination has enough committee votes to advance.

Hegseth declines to say how many more months he expects Iran war to continue - NYT

US to Withdraw USS Gerald R. Ford from Middle East, reducing carrier presence

The US will send the USS Gerald R. Ford home after a record deployment of about 10 months, easing strain on roughly 4,500 sailors but reducing military firepower in the Middle East as tensions with Iran persist. The carrier, one of three in the region alongside the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS George H.W. Bush, is expected to return to Virginia around mid-May for repairs after extended operations and mechanical issues.

Trump would gain Fed board Majority if Powell leaves Powell is currently the only governor appointed by presidents of both parties, having been named by Barack Obama, elevated by Trump, and reappointed by Joe Biden. Trump also appointed current governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, and is set to fill another seat with Kevin Warsh.

FOMC statement: The implications of Middle East developments for the US economy are uncertain.

Trump: It's a good time to lower rates.

Fed's Powell: I will leave when I think it's appropriate to do so