State Street ($5.6 trillion AUM) plans to launch tokenized fund management from Luxembourg by the end of the year.

Iranian army spokesperson: we do not consider the war to be over, the situation is still considered a war, and the bank of objectives and equipment for the armed forces has been updated

Iran parliament's national security commission Khezrian: the Emiratis are taking steps to align with America for a renewed attack on the Islamic republic, and Emirati citizens should know that this country will be taught a lesson in any potential future war - Iran international

Treasury's OFAC says firms making toll payments for Hormuz passage face 'significant' sanctions

US Intelligence agencies are examining how Iran would react to Trump declaring victory in conflict - sources

US intelligence agencies are assessing how Iran would react if Donald Trump declares a unilateral victory in the ongoing war, according to officials. Early assessments suggest Tehran may view a US drawdown as a win, while a continued troop presence could be seen as a negotiating tactic. Officials say large-scale escalation, such as a ground invasion, is now less likely, though military options remain. The conflict has become a domestic political burden, with polling showing low public support. Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt oil flows and sustain pressure on energy prices.

Today semis make up 14% of the entire US stock market

Even the Dotcom pump was a test pump when compared to what will happen this year

US President Donald Trump has instructed aides to plan an extended blockade of Iran. Officials say he sees it as lower-risk than resuming bombing or walking away, aiming to pressure Tehran into nuclear capitulation via sustained economic squeeze on oil/ports. No swift exit expected.

BTC sees this as TACO and is pumping

In the past 2 hours Tom Lee's Bitmine bought 45,000 ETH worth $103.5 million

Apple's next chief John Ternus confronts break from China playbook – FT

Unlike Cook, whose career was defined by building the China centric supply chain, Ternus is inheriting a company that is actively trying to diversify away from China (shifting production to India and Vietnam) due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks.

Canada announces plan to ban cryptocurrency ATMs citing their role in financial crimes. Nearly 4000 machines, world's highest density per capita, to be prohibited.

The move follows a high profile investigation (the "Coin Laundry" series) by The Toronto Star and the ICIJ earlier this year. That investigation revealed that dozens of crypto ATMs in major hubs like Toronto were operating unlawfully, often without being registered with FINTRAC

Today is FOMC day.

2:00 PM ET Rate decision
2:30 PM ET Powell speaks

This will probably be Powell's last presser

Clarity Act hits a wall in senate as Democrats demand strict ethics rules targeting Trump family's $1b+ crypto empire. This is widely viewed as a direct response to World Liberty Financial (WLF) and other crypto-related interests associated with the Trump family, which have been valued by some analysts at or above the $1 billion mark.

Republican Thom Tillis has also stated he will vote against the Clarity Act in the Senate Banking Committee unless it includes specific ethics provisions. With his defection in the banking committee the bill could fail to reach the floor entirely. Republicans currently need at least 7 Democratic votes to reach the 60-vote threshold for cloture in the Senate floor.

Money markets now fully pricing three 25 bp rate hikes from the European Central Bank this year

Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl has endorsed Bitcoin as part of reserve strategy, during his Bitcoin 2026 keynote in Las Vegas. He proposed allocating around one percent of reserves to Bitcoin exposure.

Analysts scrap China rate cut calls following Politburo meeting that omitted references to rate and RRR tools, alongside rising inflation pressures linked to higher oil prices and ample interbank liquidity.

Economists at Goldman and Nomura have dropped forecasts for China monetary easing this year. Nomura pushed expected rate and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to 2027, from prior calls for a 50 bps RRR cut in Q2 and a 10 bps rate cut in Q4. Goldman also removed its forecast for a 50 bps RRR cut in 2026, while Bank of America withdrew expectations for two rate cuts totaling 20 bps in 2026. Economists cited reduced urgency for stimulus, with Barclays saying rate cuts are unlikely unless growth falls below 4.5%.

China's only urgency is Yuan stability to prevent a massive capital flight. If the Yuan weakens too much, it would trigger capital flight. The Yuan has been getting stronger since Liberation Day, a massive bull trap before it collapses in 2027 when Xi moves on Taiwan.

China central bank:

*Outstanding individual mortgage loans -3.1% y/y

*Outstanding property development loans -5.1% y/y

*Outstanding property loans -3.4% y/y

Trump met top energy executives at the White House to discuss the energy impact of the Iran war and broader market conditions. Attendees included Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, alongside officials such as Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Senator Warren: a vote to advance Warsh is a vote to help Donald trump take over the Fed; We should not be advancing Warsh today

Trump and oil companies discussed steps to continue Iran blockade for months if needed - White House official