In the US Q1 earnings season so far earnings are up +27% versus a year ago.

Welcome to the AI led productivity boom

UAE is leaving OPEC and OPEC+

UAE Energy Minister: The decision will enable us to work with our partners and investors to ensure we are meeting the future requirements of the world relating to crude products, petrochemicals, and others, as well as gas.

Multipolar world order innit

Now the UAE can produce more oil than the OPEC+ quota previously allowed them

Ton Tech introduces agentic wallets on the Ton blockchain enabling AI agents to execute onchain transactions without manual user approval. Each agent operates a dedicated wallet funded by the user, providing full ownership and the ability to revoke access at any time.

China home prices fall to lowest levels in at least 20 years, extending property slump that has erased decades of household wealth

Xi will attack Taiwan to divert attention from the immediate problem

Trump: Iran is "collapsing" and wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened as soon as possible as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!)

World Bank forecasts 24% increase in energy prices in 2026, if most acute disruptions of war in Middle East end in May

State Street ($5.6 trillion AUM) plans to launch tokenized fund management from Luxembourg by the end of the year.

Iranian army spokesperson: we do not consider the war to be over, the situation is still considered a war, and the bank of objectives and equipment for the armed forces has been updated

Iran parliament's national security commission Khezrian: the Emiratis are taking steps to align with America for a renewed attack on the Islamic republic, and Emirati citizens should know that this country will be taught a lesson in any potential future war - Iran international

Treasury's OFAC says firms making toll payments for Hormuz passage face 'significant' sanctions

US Intelligence agencies are examining how Iran would react to Trump declaring victory in conflict - sources

US intelligence agencies are assessing how Iran would react if Donald Trump declares a unilateral victory in the ongoing war, according to officials. Early assessments suggest Tehran may view a US drawdown as a win, while a continued troop presence could be seen as a negotiating tactic. Officials say large-scale escalation, such as a ground invasion, is now less likely, though military options remain. The conflict has become a domestic political burden, with polling showing low public support. Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt oil flows and sustain pressure on energy prices.

Today semis make up 14% of the entire US stock market

Even the Dotcom pump was a test pump when compared to what will happen this year

US President Donald Trump has instructed aides to plan an extended blockade of Iran. Officials say he sees it as lower-risk than resuming bombing or walking away, aiming to pressure Tehran into nuclear capitulation via sustained economic squeeze on oil/ports. No swift exit expected.

BTC sees this as TACO and is pumping

In the past 2 hours Tom Lee's Bitmine bought 45,000 ETH worth $103.5 million

Apple's next chief John Ternus confronts break from China playbook – FT

Unlike Cook, whose career was defined by building the China centric supply chain, Ternus is inheriting a company that is actively trying to diversify away from China (shifting production to India and Vietnam) due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks.

Canada announces plan to ban cryptocurrency ATMs citing their role in financial crimes. Nearly 4000 machines, world's highest density per capita, to be prohibited.

The move follows a high profile investigation (the "Coin Laundry" series) by The Toronto Star and the ICIJ earlier this year. That investigation revealed that dozens of crypto ATMs in major hubs like Toronto were operating unlawfully, often without being registered with FINTRAC

Today is FOMC day.

2:00 PM ET Rate decision
2:30 PM ET Powell speaks

This will probably be Powell's last presser