The U.S. DOJ announced it will no longer launch criminal investigations into crypto exchanges, mixing services (such as Tornado Cash), and offline wallets due to user behavior or unintentional violations, nor will it pursue legal liability for developers whose code is used by others to commit crimes. -source

USD30Y yields and USD/JPY diverging. Markets may have found in the Japanese yen an alternative to Treasuries as a safe bet in the storm.

Yield curve since last Friday. If yields keep going higher the Fed will be dragged in kicking and screaming.

QQQ (NASDAQ ETF) Jan 2024 support holding for now. [Maybe we gap lower after tonight's China tariff comes into effect]

SPX Boom and Bust Cycles. We're inside the AI-fuelled global hyperinflation boom that will go well beyond the Covid BRRR top.

Trump: Japan is flying here to make a deal and so is South Korea. I've had tariffs talks with more than 70 countries. Tariffs are on.

Fitch Ratings: US tariffs have a mixed fiscal impact and will not solve underlying challenges.

TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD RISES 10 BASIS POINTS ON DAY TO 4.28%

Fitch Ratings: Stabilising US debt/GDP will be challenging as long as long-term spending pressures remain unaddressed.

📉 Snapshot
- Equities: Down
- Treasuries: Down
- Crude: Down
- Dollar: Down

📊 Equities

S&P 500: –1.57% at 4,983
Nasdaq 100: –1.95% at 17,090
Dow Jones: –0.84% at 37,646
Russell 2K: –2.57% at 1,764

Bloomberg: The ProShares Ultra Crude oil fund just had its biggest outflow since 2020, as traders take profits from bets that oil prices would fall during a 4-day slump. This is a peak fear signal.

The US imports over $1bn per day from China. With >100% tariffs hitting in 7h, the US Customs will begin taxing importers ~$1bn per day on China goods alone.

Distribution of US Investor Exposure. Investor exposure is now in the bottom 1% of historical risk appetite. This is the time to go contrarian with an inevitable monetary inflation event.

Jim Bianco: Tariffs have broken the bond market. The 30 year yield is now 5% after rising 0.67% in 3 days. The last time yields rose this much in 3 days was 1982. This kind of historic move is caused by a forced liquidation, not human managers making decisions about the outlook for rates. While technically possible, I don't think China is selling. -tweets

Trump's China tariff and a dozen other tariffs went into effect 1 hour ago

1 year inflation swap is rising sharply while 5 and 10 year inflation swaps have actually gone down reflecting expections. While investors are expecting prices to go up in the short run, they also expect a recession & sharp slowdown in the long term.

China launches comprehensive market rescue: PBOC, Central Huijin (sovereign wealth fund), state owned enterprises, and regulators are deploying real capital, backstops with buybacks, long-term liquidity, and reform measures.
[Chinese capital injections are strongly correlated with BTC ATHs]

SOURCES: CHINA IS UNDERTAKING LARGE-SCALE SELL-OFF OF U.S. TREASURIES

ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF TQQQ (3x long QQQ ETF) saw a $1.5 Billion inflow within the last few days, the largest daily inflow in history