Glencore Ex-CEO Glasenberg buys shares for the first time since 2015 after a share-price rout triggered by Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. -source

Novogratz’s Galaxy Research predicts Bitcoin could hit $185,000 by 2025, citing growing adoption by states and corporations as a reserve asset.

SPX down 3.7% since this morning

US 3Y Notes draw 3.784% vs 3.760% pre-sale when-issued yield [the Trump-Xi plan of pushing yields higher to force Fed's hand to cut rates seems to be working]

SERFFs (unsecured short term lending) drop into negative territory signaling a deep risk-off move among institutional investors.

The U.S. DOJ announced it will no longer launch criminal investigations into crypto exchanges, mixing services (such as Tornado Cash), and offline wallets due to user behavior or unintentional violations, nor will it pursue legal liability for developers whose code is used by others to commit crimes. -source

USD30Y yields and USD/JPY diverging. Markets may have found in the Japanese yen an alternative to Treasuries as a safe bet in the storm.

Yield curve since last Friday. If yields keep going higher the Fed will be dragged in kicking and screaming.

QQQ (NASDAQ ETF) Jan 2024 support holding for now. [Maybe we gap lower after tonight's China tariff comes into effect]

SPX Boom and Bust Cycles. We're inside the AI-fuelled global hyperinflation boom that will go well beyond the Covid BRRR top.

Trump: Japan is flying here to make a deal and so is South Korea. I've had tariffs talks with more than 70 countries. Tariffs are on.

Fitch Ratings: US tariffs have a mixed fiscal impact and will not solve underlying challenges.

TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD RISES 10 BASIS POINTS ON DAY TO 4.28%

Fitch Ratings: Stabilising US debt/GDP will be challenging as long as long-term spending pressures remain unaddressed.

📉 Snapshot
- Equities: Down
- Treasuries: Down
- Crude: Down
- Dollar: Down

📊 Equities

S&P 500: –1.57% at 4,983
Nasdaq 100: –1.95% at 17,090
Dow Jones: –0.84% at 37,646
Russell 2K: –2.57% at 1,764

Bloomberg: The ProShares Ultra Crude oil fund just had its biggest outflow since 2020, as traders take profits from bets that oil prices would fall during a 4-day slump. This is a peak fear signal.

The US imports over $1bn per day from China. With >100% tariffs hitting in 7h, the US Customs will begin taxing importers ~$1bn per day on China goods alone.

Distribution of US Investor Exposure. Investor exposure is now in the bottom 1% of historical risk appetite. This is the time to go contrarian with an inevitable monetary inflation event.

Jim Bianco: Tariffs have broken the bond market. The 30 year yield is now 5% after rising 0.67% in 3 days. The last time yields rose this much in 3 days was 1982. This kind of historic move is caused by a forced liquidation, not human managers making decisions about the outlook for rates. While technically possible, I don't think China is selling. -tweets