Global gold reserves (% over time) reveal a clear trend: central banks have been loading up on gold recently, and they’re likely not done yet. The trend is your friend.

The White House says China didn’t back down, so the 104% tariff hits tomorrow, April 9, starting at noon ET.

Bloomberg's John Authers: Trading volume suggests that the initial post-Liberation Day has come to a climax. More shares in SPY changed hands yesterday than on any day since Covid five years ago.

Bitcoin Quantile Model shows bitcoin is getting significantly derisked here. The current pricing places Bitcoin in a lower quantile with a risk score of 47%, making it deeply undervalued for long-term investors.

Glencore Ex-CEO Glasenberg buys shares for the first time since 2015 after a share-price rout triggered by Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. -source

Novogratz’s Galaxy Research predicts Bitcoin could hit $185,000 by 2025, citing growing adoption by states and corporations as a reserve asset.

SPX down 3.7% since this morning

US 3Y Notes draw 3.784% vs 3.760% pre-sale when-issued yield [the Trump-Xi plan of pushing yields higher to force Fed's hand to cut rates seems to be working]

SERFFs (unsecured short term lending) drop into negative territory signaling a deep risk-off move among institutional investors.

The U.S. DOJ announced it will no longer launch criminal investigations into crypto exchanges, mixing services (such as Tornado Cash), and offline wallets due to user behavior or unintentional violations, nor will it pursue legal liability for developers whose code is used by others to commit crimes. -source

USD30Y yields and USD/JPY diverging. Markets may have found in the Japanese yen an alternative to Treasuries as a safe bet in the storm.

Yield curve since last Friday. If yields keep going higher the Fed will be dragged in kicking and screaming.

QQQ (NASDAQ ETF) Jan 2024 support holding for now. [Maybe we gap lower after tonight's China tariff comes into effect]

SPX Boom and Bust Cycles. We're inside the AI-fuelled global hyperinflation boom that will go well beyond the Covid BRRR top.

Trump: Japan is flying here to make a deal and so is South Korea. I've had tariffs talks with more than 70 countries. Tariffs are on.

Fitch Ratings: US tariffs have a mixed fiscal impact and will not solve underlying challenges.

TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD RISES 10 BASIS POINTS ON DAY TO 4.28%

Fitch Ratings: Stabilising US debt/GDP will be challenging as long as long-term spending pressures remain unaddressed.

📉 Snapshot
- Equities: Down
- Treasuries: Down
- Crude: Down
- Dollar: Down

📊 Equities

S&P 500: –1.57% at 4,983
Nasdaq 100: –1.95% at 17,090
Dow Jones: –0.84% at 37,646
Russell 2K: –2.57% at 1,764