Bull Case
π¨IMF's Georgieva: price shock from war in Middle East will inflict a toll for some time to come But CBs shouldn't rush to hike rates (she said that yesterday). In other words, run it hot. Risk assets will fly. Melt up.
IMF's Georgieva: Strong growth is the best shock absorber for the world.
Run it hot
Run it hot
π₯3π2π2
Bull Case
Fed's Williams (FOMC voter): AI will likely lift productivity rate, but the level of increase is hard to say Everyone's starting to parrot Warsh's productivity thesis. Most people still have no clue about Kevin Warsh's plans for 2026.
Fed's Waller: cautious about the need to lower interest rates in the near term, due to the energy shock triggered by war in Iran
Waller sounding like an ECB official. Warsh will fix him
Waller sounding like an ECB official. Warsh will fix him
π€£1
Bull Case
South Korea launches new pilot replacing state cards with programmable deposit tokens issued by commercial banks holding the government fiat budget. The tokens will be issued on a permissioned private ledger. 1. The bank "locks" a certain amount of that fiatβ¦
French Finance Minister calls for more euro-denominated stablecoins and urged EU banks to explore tokenized deposits like the ones in the South Korean pilot
β‘2
Bull Case
Trump is considering a $20B cash for Uranium deal. In exchange Iran would surrender the entire stockpile
US considers releasing $6B in frozen Iranian assets as first phase of possible $20bln deal to end war with Iran - NYP source
π€‘2π€―1π1
Bull Case
In line with Lebanon ceasefire passage for all commercial vessels through the strait of Hormuz is fully open for the remaining ceasefire period - Iran FM
Around 20 ships are seen moving from the gulf towards the exit via the Strait of Hormuz - ship tracking data
β€1π€‘1
Bull Case
π¨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially alteredβ¦
This April stocks are experiencing the second fastest rally in history. They went from oversold to overbought in just 11 days -Bloomberg
2026 is 2021 on steroids, read the final paragraph of the bull thesis we shared the first week of February. We're headed much higher
2026 is 2021 on steroids, read the final paragraph of the bull thesis we shared the first week of February. We're headed much higher
πΎ3π₯2π€―1π€‘1
Bull Case
US considers releasing $6B in frozen Iranian assets as first phase of possible $20bln deal to end war with Iran - NYP source
US eyes Monday talks with Iran in Pakistan - WSJ
π1π€‘1π1
Bull Case
Fed's Waller: cautious about the need to lower interest rates in the near term, due to the energy shock triggered by war in Iran Waller sounding like an ECB official. Warsh will fix him
Fed's Waller: Some of low-hire and low-fire job market is related to firms dealing with tariffs.
And high rates
And high rates
π₯2π2π©2
Bull Case
South Korea launches new pilot replacing state cards with programmable deposit tokens issued by commercial banks holding the government fiat budget. The tokens will be issued on a permissioned private ledger. 1. The bank "locks" a certain amount of that fiatβ¦
Iran's enriched uranium will not be transferred to any place under any circumstance. Just like Iranβs soil is considered sacred to us, this matter is also sacred to us. - Foreign Ministry Spokesperson
Maybe Trump proposed to tokenize it and transfer uranium tokens to Trump's digital wallet?
Maybe Trump proposed to tokenize it and transfer uranium tokens to Trump's digital wallet?
π©3π€‘3π€―1
Bull Case
Iran's enriched uranium will not be transferred to any place under any circumstance. Just like Iranβs soil is considered sacred to us, this matter is also sacred to us. - Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maybe Trump proposed to tokenize it and transfer uraniumβ¦
It must be emphasized again that the Strait of Hormuz will never return to the pre-war situation. Tweet writing errors [by Iran's foreign minister Aragchi] on the one hand and Trump's tweeting delusions on the other will not change the situation. - Iran State Media
Only trust what Trump says. State media will never admit any important concessions
Only trust what Trump says. State media will never admit any important concessions
π€‘3π€1
Bull Case
π¨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially alteredβ¦
US stock market has now added over $7.5 trillion in market value since the 30th of March.
πΎ3π€‘2π€―1
Bull Case
Iran's enriched uranium will not be transferred to any place under any circumstance. Just like Iranβs soil is considered sacred to us, this matter is also sacred to us. - Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maybe Trump proposed to tokenize it and transfer uraniumβ¦
China offers to take Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium as part of agreement to end war
π4π2π2
Negotiation teams from Iran and US are expected in Islamabad on Tuesday for the final round before Trump makes his appearance to sign a deal on Wednesday or Thursday in Islamabad - Pakistani source
π₯2π2
Bull Case
Negotiation teams from Iran and US are expected in Islamabad on Tuesday for the final round before Trump makes his appearance to sign a deal on Wednesday or Thursday in Islamabad - Pakistani source
Regional source: There are communication challenges with Mojtaba Khamenei in the shadow of the US-Iran negotiations. Optimistic that the ceasefire will be extended.
He hides in a cave and communicates with mail pigeons
He hides in a cave and communicates with mail pigeons
π©3π1
Bull Case
Regional source: There are communication challenges with Mojtaba Khamenei in the shadow of the US-Iran negotiations. Optimistic that the ceasefire will be extended. He hides in a cave and communicates with mail pigeons
Iranian officials suspect US could attack before ceasefire ends on Tuesday night - Axios
π€¬1π©1π1
Bull Case
Iranian officials suspect US could attack before ceasefire ends on Tuesday night - Axios
Iran believes it is being misled by the US and is on the "verge of a new round of escalation," - Al Jazeera
π€‘2π€―1
Trump: the concept of the deal is done. I think we have a very good chance to get it completed
π€‘2π€£2π1π1
Bull Case
Negotiation teams from Iran and US are expected in Islamabad on Tuesday for the final round before Trump makes his appearance to sign a deal on Wednesday or Thursday in Islamabad - Pakistani source
π¨Today, an Iranian delegation of 17 people arrived at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad. Ghalibaf and Araghchi will come. - Saudi source
π2π2π1
Bull Case
Trump: the concept of the deal is done. I think we have a very good chance to get it completed
π¨Details of the latest US-Iran draft proposal, according to Amit Segal & various other journalists [Key US Concessions in bold]:
β’ Iran commits to a 15-year enrichment suspension, with the exception of research reactors for medical isotopes.
β’ Iran's stockpile of 60% and 20% enriched uranium would be partially converted to reactor fuel, and partially 'downblended' to a lower enrichment level. However, it wonβt leave Iran.
β’ IAEA supervison on nuclear sites.
β’ Opening the Strait of Hormuz, with the possibility of collecting tolls.
β’ The US will offer Iran phased sanctions relief.
β’ The US will unfreeze all Iranian assets currently frozen abroad, amounting to $20 Billion or more.
β’ The US will commit to a non-aggression pact with Iran that is ensured through a UN National Security Council resolution and a treaty ratified by Congress.
β’ The US will withdraw all its military forces from the Persian Gulf.
β’ Iran commits to a 15-year enrichment suspension, with the exception of research reactors for medical isotopes.
β’ Iran's stockpile of 60% and 20% enriched uranium would be partially converted to reactor fuel, and partially 'downblended' to a lower enrichment level. However, it wonβt leave Iran.
β’ IAEA supervison on nuclear sites.
β’ Opening the Strait of Hormuz, with the possibility of collecting tolls.
β’ The US will offer Iran phased sanctions relief.
β’ The US will unfreeze all Iranian assets currently frozen abroad, amounting to $20 Billion or more.
β’ The US will commit to a non-aggression pact with Iran that is ensured through a UN National Security Council resolution and a treaty ratified by Congress.
β’ The US will withdraw all its military forces from the Persian Gulf.
π€3π2π1