Bull Case
Money market pricing shows a nearly 69% probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting rates by the end of 2026 Nearly 3 months after his nomination, money markets are still mispricing Warsh's plans for 2026. Warsh's cuts will be the major green swan of…
Money markets now pricing 54.4% probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting in 2026
Money markets are behind the curve on US, ECB and UK. The following are still not priced in:
• Kevin Warsh and his AI led productivity boom thesis
• Bessent, IMF calls to CenBanks to focus on growth and look through the Iran war shock as temporary
• AI-induced unemployment
2026 is going to be much more dovish than what's priced in so far.
Money markets are behind the curve on US, ECB and UK. The following are still not priced in:
• Kevin Warsh and his AI led productivity boom thesis
• Bessent, IMF calls to CenBanks to focus on growth and look through the Iran war shock as temporary
• AI-induced unemployment
2026 is going to be much more dovish than what's priced in so far.
👌3🤔2
Bull Case
Money markets now pricing 54.4% probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting in 2026 Money markets are behind the curve on US, ECB and UK. The following are still not priced in: • Kevin Warsh and his AI led productivity boom thesis • Bessent, IMF calls…
US dollar index has now given up the entire increase since the start of the Iran conflict
Up only from here for the DXY as well
Up only from here for the DXY as well
👎1🤯1
DeepSeek is in talks to raise outside capital for the first time, seeking at least $300M at a $10B+ valuation.
😁1
Bull Case
BTC $78k
The US and Iran have made progress in the negotiations over a three-page memorandum of understanding to end the war - Axios
👍3❤2
Bull Case
The US and Iran have made progress in the negotiations over a three-page memorandum of understanding to end the war - Axios
Trump: I expect an Iran deal in a day or two - Axios
🔥2🤡1
Bull Case
IMF warns central banks that they risk choking off the global economy if they rush into rate hikes over the Iran war's energy shock The IMF is reminding everyone that the plan for 2026 is to run it hot. Rate hikes come later in 2027.
🚨IMF's Georgieva: price shock from war in Middle East will inflict a toll for some time to come
But CBs shouldn't rush to hike rates (she said that yesterday).
In other words, run it hot.
Risk assets will fly.
Melt up.
But CBs shouldn't rush to hike rates (she said that yesterday).
In other words, run it hot.
Risk assets will fly.
Melt up.
🌚4
Bull Case
🚨IMF's Georgieva: price shock from war in Middle East will inflict a toll for some time to come But CBs shouldn't rush to hike rates (she said that yesterday). In other words, run it hot. Risk assets will fly. Melt up.
IMF's Georgieva: Strong growth is the best shock absorber for the world.
Run it hot
Run it hot
🔥3🌚2😈2
Bull Case
Fed's Williams (FOMC voter): AI will likely lift productivity rate, but the level of increase is hard to say Everyone's starting to parrot Warsh's productivity thesis. Most people still have no clue about Kevin Warsh's plans for 2026.
Fed's Waller: cautious about the need to lower interest rates in the near term, due to the energy shock triggered by war in Iran
Waller sounding like an ECB official. Warsh will fix him
Waller sounding like an ECB official. Warsh will fix him
🤣1
Bull Case
South Korea launches new pilot replacing state cards with programmable deposit tokens issued by commercial banks holding the government fiat budget. The tokens will be issued on a permissioned private ledger. 1. The bank "locks" a certain amount of that fiat…
French Finance Minister calls for more euro-denominated stablecoins and urged EU banks to explore tokenized deposits like the ones in the South Korean pilot
⚡2
Bull Case
Trump is considering a $20B cash for Uranium deal. In exchange Iran would surrender the entire stockpile
US considers releasing $6B in frozen Iranian assets as first phase of possible $20bln deal to end war with Iran - NYP source
🤡2🤯1🌚1
Bull Case
In line with Lebanon ceasefire passage for all commercial vessels through the strait of Hormuz is fully open for the remaining ceasefire period - Iran FM
Around 20 ships are seen moving from the gulf towards the exit via the Strait of Hormuz - ship tracking data
❤1🤡1
Bull Case
🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered…
This April stocks are experiencing the second fastest rally in history. They went from oversold to overbought in just 11 days -Bloomberg
2026 is 2021 on steroids, read the final paragraph of the bull thesis we shared the first week of February. We're headed much higher
2026 is 2021 on steroids, read the final paragraph of the bull thesis we shared the first week of February. We're headed much higher
🍾3🔥2🤯1🤡1
Bull Case
US considers releasing $6B in frozen Iranian assets as first phase of possible $20bln deal to end war with Iran - NYP source
US eyes Monday talks with Iran in Pakistan - WSJ
👌1🤡1👀1
Bull Case
Fed's Waller: cautious about the need to lower interest rates in the near term, due to the energy shock triggered by war in Iran Waller sounding like an ECB official. Warsh will fix him
Fed's Waller: Some of low-hire and low-fire job market is related to firms dealing with tariffs.
And high rates
And high rates
🔥2😁2💩2
Bull Case
South Korea launches new pilot replacing state cards with programmable deposit tokens issued by commercial banks holding the government fiat budget. The tokens will be issued on a permissioned private ledger. 1. The bank "locks" a certain amount of that fiat…
Iran's enriched uranium will not be transferred to any place under any circumstance. Just like Iran’s soil is considered sacred to us, this matter is also sacred to us. - Foreign Ministry Spokesperson
Maybe Trump proposed to tokenize it and transfer uranium tokens to Trump's digital wallet?
Maybe Trump proposed to tokenize it and transfer uranium tokens to Trump's digital wallet?
💩3🤡3🤯1