Bull Case
In line with Lebanon ceasefire passage for all commercial vessels through the strait of Hormuz is fully open for the remaining ceasefire period - Iran FM
Trump: The SoH is completely open and ready for business, but the naval blockade will remain in full force as it pertains to Iran until our transaction is 100% complete.
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Bull Case
Trump: The SoH is completely open and ready for business, but the naval blockade will remain in full force as it pertains to Iran until our transaction is 100% complete.
Commercial vessels can pass the SoH along a determined route and with permission of the Revolutionary Guards Navy - Iranian State TV
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Bull Case
🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered…
Lutnick: US growth will hit 6% under Trump
3-3.5% real growth this year, thanks to AI led productivity boom and Kevin Warsh's cuts
3-3.5% real growth this year, thanks to AI led productivity boom and Kevin Warsh's cuts
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Bull Case
US President Donald Trump is ready to make new concessions in negotiations with Iran to bring the issue to an end - Gulf official
US official says paying for Iranian Uranium is being considered as an option - Axios
That's a huge concession
That's a huge concession
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Bull Case
US official says paying for Iranian Uranium is being considered as an option - Axios That's a huge concession
Trump is considering a $20B cash for Uranium deal. In exchange Iran would surrender the entire stockpile
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Trump: Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. Israel is prohibited from doing so by USA. Enough is enough
Now all eyes on Taiwan
Now all eyes on Taiwan
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Bull Case
China said the presence of a Japanese Self-Defense Forces vessel in the Taiwan Strait was provocative - Bloomberg
Japanese destroyer JS Ikazuchi (DD-107) transited the Taiwan Strait on April 17, marking the vessel's first known passage through the strait.
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Norwegian shipowners' association CEO: situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. Uncertainties include sea mines, applicable Iranian conditions, and practical implementation
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Bull Case
Norwegian shipowners' association CEO: situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. Uncertainties include sea mines, applicable Iranian conditions, and practical implementation
Trump: Iran removing all sea mines with US help
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Bull Case
🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered…
Stocks entering the final parabolic phase which is going to last until 2027 when China moves on Taiwan
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Bull Case
Money market pricing shows a nearly 69% probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting rates by the end of 2026 Nearly 3 months after his nomination, money markets are still mispricing Warsh's plans for 2026. Warsh's cuts will be the major green swan of…
Money markets now pricing 54.4% probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting in 2026
Money markets are behind the curve on US, ECB and UK. The following are still not priced in:
• Kevin Warsh and his AI led productivity boom thesis
• Bessent, IMF calls to CenBanks to focus on growth and look through the Iran war shock as temporary
• AI-induced unemployment
2026 is going to be much more dovish than what's priced in so far.
Money markets are behind the curve on US, ECB and UK. The following are still not priced in:
• Kevin Warsh and his AI led productivity boom thesis
• Bessent, IMF calls to CenBanks to focus on growth and look through the Iran war shock as temporary
• AI-induced unemployment
2026 is going to be much more dovish than what's priced in so far.
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Bull Case
Money markets now pricing 54.4% probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting in 2026 Money markets are behind the curve on US, ECB and UK. The following are still not priced in: • Kevin Warsh and his AI led productivity boom thesis • Bessent, IMF calls…
US dollar index has now given up the entire increase since the start of the Iran conflict
Up only from here for the DXY as well
Up only from here for the DXY as well
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DeepSeek is in talks to raise outside capital for the first time, seeking at least $300M at a $10B+ valuation.
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Bull Case
BTC $78k
The US and Iran have made progress in the negotiations over a three-page memorandum of understanding to end the war - Axios
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Bull Case
The US and Iran have made progress in the negotiations over a three-page memorandum of understanding to end the war - Axios
Trump: I expect an Iran deal in a day or two - Axios
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Bull Case
IMF warns central banks that they risk choking off the global economy if they rush into rate hikes over the Iran war's energy shock The IMF is reminding everyone that the plan for 2026 is to run it hot. Rate hikes come later in 2027.
🚨IMF's Georgieva: price shock from war in Middle East will inflict a toll for some time to come
But CBs shouldn't rush to hike rates (she said that yesterday).
In other words, run it hot.
Risk assets will fly.
Melt up.
But CBs shouldn't rush to hike rates (she said that yesterday).
In other words, run it hot.
Risk assets will fly.
Melt up.
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