Bull Case
π¨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially alteredβ¦
Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi confirmed Kraken has confidentially filed for a US IPO at $13.3B valuation. Kraken had initially targeted a Q1 2026 listing but pushed back the timeline amid Iran tensions.
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Bull Case
π¨UPCOMING FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH: WE'RE IN THE EARLY INNINGS OF A STRUCTURAL DECLINE IN PRICES In 2026 Warsh will send everything fugazi with his AI-led productivity boom thesis. [BTFD before everything rips!]
Hassett on AI: It is raising the productivity of small and large businesses.
The AI led productivity boom thesis is about to go mainstream. Most still have no idea how dovish Warsh is going to be this year.
The AI led productivity boom thesis is about to go mainstream. Most still have no idea how dovish Warsh is going to be this year.
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Bull Case
Hassett on AI: It is raising the productivity of small and large businesses. The AI led productivity boom thesis is about to go mainstream. Most still have no idea how dovish Warsh is going to be this year.
1-year breakevens fell back to pre war levels last week. Breakevens reflect 1-year inflation expectations priced in by those holding US gov debt.
For now, big money is buying back into the official "inflation is under control" narrative.
For now, big money is buying back into the official "inflation is under control" narrative.
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Bull Case
The US will allow the temporary waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil on the sea to expire this week - two US officials. Btc dumping again on this. Just like with tariffs, they will sign a peace deal only when markets stop reacting to news about negotiations.
The US will not renew sanctions waiver on Iranian oil -Reuters
Another huge L for the IRGC.
Another huge L for the IRGC.
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Only 6.5% of US adults reported cryptocurrency sales to the IRS -Bloomberg
I read the full article and it's not as bad as they make it.
That means close to 40% of degens reported their sales to the IRS.
Full article for those who want to read it for free: https://archive.ph/20260414211006/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-14/crypto-bros-appear-to-be-dodging-reporting-sales-to-the-irs#selection-1605.50-1605.223
I read the full article and it's not as bad as they make it.
Between 12% and 21% of US adults had owned cryptocurrency at some point through 2021, Menzer and his colleagues found that only 6.5% reported cryptocurrency sales to the IRS
That means close to 40% of degens reported their sales to the IRS.
Full article for those who want to read it for free: https://archive.ph/20260414211006/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-14/crypto-bros-appear-to-be-dodging-reporting-sales-to-the-irs#selection-1605.50-1605.223
archive.ph
Crypto Bros Appear to be Dodging Reporting Sales to the IRS - Bloombeβ¦
archived 14 Apr 2026 21:10:06 UTC
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Bull Case
The US will not renew sanctions waiver on Iranian oil -Reuters Another huge L for the IRGC.
Deep divisions within Iran's negotiating team led them to abandon talks with the US in Islamabad and return to Tehran on 11/04, following an order from the country's top security official - Iran international
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The SEC today approved FINRA's proposed change which replaces the fixed $25,000 requirement with a real time margin system. Retail no longer needs $25,000 to day trade. They just need enough margin to cover the actual risk of their open positions.
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Societe Generale USD stablecoin CoinVertible is now available on MetaMask thanks to a partnership with Consensys
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Bull Case
The US will allow the temporary waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil on the sea to expire this week - two US officials. Btc dumping again on this. Just like with tariffs, they will sign a peace deal only when markets stop reacting to news about negotiations.
Ali Nikzad, Deputy Speaker of Iran's Parliament: Revenge for Khamenei's killing will certainly be taken. No negotiations regarding enrichment are acceptable. We stand alongside the "oppressed nations and resistance forces" in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria
Btc did a mini dump to $73.9k on this
Btc did a mini dump to $73.9k on this
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π¨US to begin tariff refund claims with interest from April 20, $127B eligible out of the $166B are eligible
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Iran to use alternative ports to bypass US Strait of Hormuz blockade
Do they mean the Caspian Sea ports?
Do they mean the Caspian Sea ports?
Bull Case
Ali Nikzad, Deputy Speaker of Iran's Parliament: Revenge for Khamenei's killing will certainly be taken. No negotiations regarding enrichment are acceptable. We stand alongside the "oppressed nations and resistance forces" in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syriaβ¦
US sending thousands of additional troops to the Middle East, including 6000 aboard the USS George H.W. Bush and 4200 with a Boxer Amphibious Ready Group, with more deployments expected
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ETH wallets holding 0.01 ETH or less have offloaded 1,791 ETH in just two days
Shrimps are fading the rally already for 5% gains lmao
Shrimps are fading the rally already for 5% gains lmao
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Pakistani CenBank ends crypto ban. Now regulated entities can offer banking services to licensed VASPs under strict AML/CFT rules
Everyone will come on board for the 2026 bull market.
Everyone will come on board for the 2026 bull market.
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Bull Case
Trump: War should be over soon -Fox interview
Trump: China has not responded to the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
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Bull Case
Trump: China has not responded to the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
Trump exchanged letters with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, suggesting the move was motivated by concerns over Beijing providing weapons to Iran -Bloomberg
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