Bull Case
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Content here is for informational purposes only, always DYOR before making decisions.
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🚨Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee for Fed chair, has disclosed assets with his wife Jane Lauder that total at least $192 million -Bloomberg
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OpenAI’s $852bn valuation is under increasing scrutiny from its own backers as the group switches focus to the enterprise market and tackling competition from Anthropic -FT
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Israel-Lebanon talks at the U.S. State Department have begun

Bullish
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🚨US CENTCOM: More than 10,000 US sailors, marines, and airmen, over a dozen warships, and dozens of aircraft are executing a mission to blockade ships entering and departing Iranian ports.
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IMF urges members to be prepared for market dysfunction, liquidity squeeze

That comes later, in 2027
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Iran has said there is still no agreement with the US -CNN

Funny how BTC still reacts to FUD coming from Iran. Me and you ain't selling but manipulators still try to milk it.
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Sec Wright on Iran blockade: We put the military pressure on Iran to degrade their capacities to menace the region, and now, we're going to put an economic squeeze on them, end their oil revenues from coming out of their country. This is the way to bring this conflict to an end.

Iran getting r*ped right now
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The US will allow the temporary waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil on the sea to expire this week - two US officials.

Btc dumping again on this. Just like with tariffs, they will sign a peace deal only when markets stop reacting to news about negotiations.
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Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse expresses continued optimism on the Clarity Act, stating that peak frustration is when compromise finally happens

Why would Ripple care about the Clarity Act, they've been hiring call centers to dump on retirees since 2017
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Trump: second round of talks with Iran could take place in Pakistan within the next two days
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Hastra, the largest player in blockchain based private credit with 70% market share, is expanding its use of Chainlink as official oracle infrastructure. The move will allow Hastra to bring the $20 billion Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOC) and auto loans market onchain.
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Bull Case
Trump: second round of talks with Iran could take place in Pakistan within the next two days
Trump tells NY post we're more 'inclined' to go to Pakistan for Iran talks

Bullish
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Bull Case
Sec Wright on Iran blockade: We put the military pressure on Iran to degrade their capacities to menace the region, and now, we're going to put an economic squeeze on them, end their oil revenues from coming out of their country. This is the way to bring this…
Iran says it has established alternate trade routes through Russia, Central Asia, and China, claiming any blockade will backfire and become "America's biggest regional mistake.
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🚨Crude under $92

Oil knows a peace deal is coming soon
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Bull Case
🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered…
Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi confirmed Kraken has confidentially filed for a US IPO at $13.3B valuation. Kraken had initially targeted a Q1 2026 listing but pushed back the timeline amid Iran tensions.
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Bull Case
🚨UPCOMING FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH: WE'RE IN THE EARLY INNINGS OF A STRUCTURAL DECLINE IN PRICES In 2026 Warsh will send everything fugazi with his AI-led productivity boom thesis. [BTFD before everything rips!]
Hassett on AI: It is raising the productivity of small and large businesses.

The AI led productivity boom thesis is about to go mainstream. Most still have no idea how dovish Warsh is going to be this year.
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Bull Case
Hassett on AI: It is raising the productivity of small and large businesses. The AI led productivity boom thesis is about to go mainstream. Most still have no idea how dovish Warsh is going to be this year.
1-year breakevens fell back to pre war levels last week. Breakevens reflect 1-year inflation expectations priced in by those holding US gov debt.

For now, big money is buying back into the official "inflation is under control" narrative.
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Only 6.5% of US adults reported cryptocurrency sales to the IRS -Bloomberg

I read the full article and it's not as bad as they make it.

Between 12% and 21% of US adults had owned cryptocurrency at some point through 2021, Menzer and his colleagues found that only 6.5% reported cryptocurrency sales to the IRS


That means close to 40% of degens reported their sales to the IRS.

Full article for those who want to read it for free: https://archive.ph/20260414211006/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-14/crypto-bros-appear-to-be-dodging-reporting-sales-to-the-irs#selection-1605.50-1605.223
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Bull Case
The US will not renew sanctions waiver on Iranian oil -Reuters Another huge L for the IRGC.
Deep divisions within Iran's negotiating team led them to abandon talks with the US in Islamabad and return to Tehran on 11/04, following an order from the country's top security official - Iran international
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