Bull Case
π¨MORE BULLISH CEASEFIRE REPORTS: US SEEKING MONTH-LONG CEASEFIRE TO DISCUSS 15-POINT AGREEMENT WITH IRAN -NYT *The United States has delivered a 15-point plan to Iran to end the Middle East war, routed through Pakistan, whose army chief, Field Marshal Syedβ¦
π¨IRAN REJECTS CEASEFIRE OFFER; SOURCES SAY IRAN WILL NOT ACCEPT A CEASEFIRE OR ENTER TALKS WITH PARTIES THAT BREACHED AGREEMENTS: FARS NEWS
Trump will make them a better offer.
[If we dip, BTFD!]
Trump will make them a better offer.
[If we dip, BTFD!]
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Bull Case
π¨IRAN REJECTS CEASEFIRE OFFER; SOURCES SAY IRAN WILL NOT ACCEPT A CEASEFIRE OR ENTER TALKS WITH PARTIES THAT BREACHED AGREEMENTS: FARS NEWS Trump will make them a better offer. [If we dip, BTFD!]
π¨SUMMARY OF IRAN'S OFFICIAL RESPONSE TO THE US OFFER
Stalemate is bullish. Trump has got plenty that Iran wants. He can easily negotiate himself out of this.
Stalemate is bullish. Trump has got plenty that Iran wants. He can easily negotiate himself out of this.
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Bull Case
π¨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially alteredβ¦
π¨CCP'S TAIWAN OFFICE RELEASES A BARRAGE OF STATEMENTS: DETAILED 7-POINT PEACEFUL REUNIFICATION PITCH; ATTACKS PRESIDENT LAI AS PRO-JAPAN; REMINDS FORCE OPTION ALWAYS ON THE TABLE
This is a clear escalation in CCP's rhetoric which has gone from "unification is good" to "this is how unification is going to work".
And what if I don't like it? Then you get invaded.
[Translation: BTFD ASAP and sell when the blow off tops come later this year. This is the final year of the bull.]
This is a clear escalation in CCP's rhetoric which has gone from "unification is good" to "this is how unification is going to work".
And what if I don't like it? Then you get invaded.
[Translation: BTFD ASAP and sell when the blow off tops come later this year. This is the final year of the bull.]
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Bull Case
π¨TRUMP: MAYBE WE SHOULDN'T BE THERE AT ALL. WE DON'T NEED HORMUZ, WE'VE A LOT OF OIL. *Trump: I demanded that these countries come and protect their territory, because it's the place from which they take their energy. Trump knows the closing of Hormuz isβ¦
π¨BULLISH OECD REPORT ON IRAN CRISIS: US LESS STRUCTURALLY EXPOSED TO ENERGY SHOCK; US GDP SLOWS, INFLATION UP, BUT MUCH LESS THAN PEERS, SUPPORTED BY AI INVESTMENTS; ASIA, EUROPE HIT HARDEST; CALLS SHOCK BULLISH USD
Trump started this war because it is jet fuel for the 2026 reflation trade.
2021 was the test pump. The real one is coming this year.
Trump started this war because it is jet fuel for the 2026 reflation trade.
2021 was the test pump. The real one is coming this year.
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Bull Case
π¨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially alteredβ¦
π¨BULLISH: TURKEY'S CENTRAL BANK GOLD RESERVES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP SINCE AUG 2018, SELL ABOUT 22 TONNES LAST WEEK
Central Bank gold reserves have peaked and will be replaced with Treasuries again in the coming years.
Warsh killed the USD debasement hedge trade.
Central Bank gold reserves have peaked and will be replaced with Treasuries again in the coming years.
Warsh killed the USD debasement hedge trade.
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π¨BULLISH RUMOURS: TRUMP'S 'PRODUCTIVE TALKS' SAID TO REFER TO UNOFFICIAL USβIRGC BACKCHANNEL NEGOTIATIONS UNDERWAY VIA QATAR -SOURCES
*Qatar controls $6bn of frozen IRGC funds
*No Iranian strikes there since March 18
*Trump issued ultimatum on March 22, announced 'productive talks' on March 23
*Qatar started phased reopening on March 24
*The Qatari Foreign Ministry (MOFA) issued a statement on March 24 denying mediation. "No mediation" often means "no official mediation"
[Turbo reversal imminent, BTFD!!]
*Qatar controls $6bn of frozen IRGC funds
*No Iranian strikes there since March 18
*Trump issued ultimatum on March 22, announced 'productive talks' on March 23
*Qatar started phased reopening on March 24
*The Qatari Foreign Ministry (MOFA) issued a statement on March 24 denying mediation. "No mediation" often means "no official mediation"
[Turbo reversal imminent, BTFD!!]
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Bull Case
π¨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially alteredβ¦
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π¨BTC MACD NEARING BULLISH CROSSOVER IN THE WEEKLY; YOU'RE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH!
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Bull Case
π¨BULLISH RUMOURS: TRUMP'S 'PRODUCTIVE TALKS' SAID TO REFER TO UNOFFICIAL USβIRGC BACKCHANNEL NEGOTIATIONS UNDERWAY VIA QATAR -SOURCES *Qatar controls $6bn of frozen IRGC funds *No Iranian strikes there since March 18 *Trump issued ultimatum on March 22, announcedβ¦
π¨MORE BULLISH TACO: TRUMP PAUSES ENERGY PLANT DESTRUCTION FOR 10 DAYS UNTIL MONDAY, APRIL 6, 2026, AT 8 P.M. ET
*Trump: Talks are ongoing, going very well.
He is referring to the unofficial backchannel negotiations with the IRGC mediated by Qatar.
[The Iran crisis has peaked, BTFD!]
*Trump: Talks are ongoing, going very well.
He is referring to the unofficial backchannel negotiations with the IRGC mediated by Qatar.
[The Iran crisis has peaked, BTFD!]
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π¨BEARTARDS HAVE GONE FULL IDIOT SANDWICH BY PRICING 50% CHANCE OF RATE HIKE BY END OF YEAR (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
Ten reasons why major TACO shocks are inbound and there will be no hikes:
*Bessent wants 10Y yields under 4.5%; Now: 4.40%
*Bessent wants 30Y yields under 5%; Now: 4.94%
In 2025, every single time yields approached those levels we saw TACO.
*Ongoing unofficial of negotiations via Qatar
*Ongoing official negotiations via Pakistan
*Fox News Poll: Trump -28 approval on Iran
There will be no boots on the ground, it's just a negotiation tactic. Trump has absolutely no room to escalate.
*Oil-to-copper ratio: 17 (Stagflation warning >25)
*Freight rejections at cycle high; if oil were hitting industrials, we'd see it here.
Inflation is far from becoming a problem.
There will be no hikes, only more cuts to run it hot. BTFD ASAP if you haven't yet.
Ten reasons why major TACO shocks are inbound and there will be no hikes:
*Bessent wants 10Y yields under 4.5%; Now: 4.40%
*Bessent wants 30Y yields under 5%; Now: 4.94%
In 2025, every single time yields approached those levels we saw TACO.
*Ongoing unofficial of negotiations via Qatar
*Ongoing official negotiations via Pakistan
*Fox News Poll: Trump -28 approval on Iran
There will be no boots on the ground, it's just a negotiation tactic. Trump has absolutely no room to escalate.
*Oil-to-copper ratio: 17 (Stagflation warning >25)
*Freight rejections at cycle high; if oil were hitting industrials, we'd see it here.
Inflation is far from becoming a problem.
There will be no hikes, only more cuts to run it hot. BTFD ASAP if you haven't yet.
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1
Bull Case
π¨BEARTARDS HAVE GONE FULL IDIOT SANDWICH BY PRICING 50% CHANCE OF RATE HIKE BY END OF YEAR (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Ten reasons why major TACO shocks are inbound and there will be no hikes: *Bessent wants 10Y yields under 4.5%; Now: 4.40% *Bessentβ¦
π¨BULLISH: WSJ REPORTS TRUMP CONSIDERING DEPLOYING AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 GROUND TROOPS TO THE MIDDLE EAST
Btc still dumps on such rumors, incredible!
Trump has no room to escalate anymore. Both 10Y and 30Y yields sit within 10bps of Bessent's red line.
We're close to the end. We could see some more outrageous escalation FUD before the final TACO. Trump will try to milk his own FUD until the very end.
Take advantage of it to BTFD if you haven't yet!
Btc still dumps on such rumors, incredible!
Trump has no room to escalate anymore. Both 10Y and 30Y yields sit within 10bps of Bessent's red line.
We're close to the end. We could see some more outrageous escalation FUD before the final TACO. Trump will try to milk his own FUD until the very end.
Take advantage of it to BTFD if you haven't yet!
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Bull Case
π¨BULLISH: WSJ REPORTS TRUMP CONSIDERING DEPLOYING AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 GROUND TROOPS TO THE MIDDLE EAST Btc still dumps on such rumors, incredible! Trump has no room to escalate anymore. Both 10Y and 30Y yields sit within 10bps of Bessent's red line. We'reβ¦
π¨BULLISH FOR FULL TACO: TRUMP'S ECONOMIC APPROVAL HAS JUST FALLEN BELOW ALL BIDEN-ERA LEVELS
Treasury markets are still doing relatively fine. Sinking approval is Trump's real weakness. The big final TACO is coming very soon.
As soon as that final TACO happens crypto will rip.
Treasury markets are still doing relatively fine. Sinking approval is Trump's real weakness. The big final TACO is coming very soon.
As soon as that final TACO happens crypto will rip.
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Bull Case
π¨2Y YIELDS BOUNCE OFF EFFR, BIG MONEY KEEPS DUMPING TREASURIES AND GOES RISK ON The higher PPI has raised the inflation expectations of big money. If the Fed hikes then we go risk off. As long as the Fed doesn't hike the reflation trade picks up and moreβ¦
π¨THE BULL CASE SIGNAL EVERYONE IS MISSING: 2Y YIELDS RALLYING ABOVE FED'S RATE MEANS BIG MONEY IS ABOUT TO FLOOD CRYPTO.
We pointed this out 10 days ago. It's getting more attention now, but most still donβt understand why 2Y yields matter.
When this cross over happens, the late cycle melt-up phase begins. It lasts until the Fed starts hiking.
In the chart above, when the Fed hikes the yellow line begins to move up.
The yellow line will stay flat or go lower throughout 2026. Because Powell won't hike and Kevin Warsh plans to cut.
Expect full blown fugazi from here until year end.
2021 was the test pump. 2026 is the real pump.
We pointed this out 10 days ago. It's getting more attention now, but most still donβt understand why 2Y yields matter.
When this cross over happens, the late cycle melt-up phase begins. It lasts until the Fed starts hiking.
In the chart above, when the Fed hikes the yellow line begins to move up.
The yellow line will stay flat or go lower throughout 2026. Because Powell won't hike and Kevin Warsh plans to cut.
Expect full blown fugazi from here until year end.
2021 was the test pump. 2026 is the real pump.
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1πΏ1
Bull Case
π¨BULLISH FOR FULL TACO: TRUMP'S ECONOMIC APPROVAL HAS JUST FALLEN BELOW ALL BIDEN-ERA LEVELS Treasury markets are still doing relatively fine. Sinking approval is Trump's real weakness. The big final TACO is coming very soon. As soon as that final TACOβ¦
π¨WITKOFF: TRUMP WANTS A PEACE DEAL; THINK THERE WILL BE IRAN MEETINGS THIS WEEK;
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