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π¨YIELD GAP BETWEEN 10-YEAR CHINESE GOVERNMENT BONDS AND US TREASURIES WIDENS TO ABOUT 260 BASIS POINTS, LARGEST SINCE AUGUST 2025
*China's state oil giant Sinopec will follow government orders to use national reserves -Sinopec exec
*Not much Russian oil available under the sanction waiver - Sinopec exec
Chyna is starting to feel the pain. They must be pushing hard for Iran to make a deal.
[Crypto turbo reversal incoming, BTFD!]
*China's state oil giant Sinopec will follow government orders to use national reserves -Sinopec exec
*Not much Russian oil available under the sanction waiver - Sinopec exec
Chyna is starting to feel the pain. They must be pushing hard for Iran to make a deal.
[Crypto turbo reversal incoming, BTFD!]
π€£3π3
Bull Case
π¨TRUMP ISSUES 48-HOURS ULTIMATUM TO IRAN TO RE-OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ THAT THE US DOESN'T USE 48h from now is TACO Tuesday in Iran. [Ignore WW3 FUD, BTFD spot and chill!]
π¨BULLISH TACO: TRUMP SAYS HAS POSTPONED 'ANY AND ALL' MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR FIVE DAYS
[BTFD before everything rips!]
[BTFD before everything rips!]
π€£5π2π1π1
Bull Case
π¨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially alteredβ¦
π¨RUNNING IT HOT: EVEN AFTER TACO 2Y TREASURY YIELDS KEPT FREE FLOATING DEEP INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The holders of the US debt have dumped Treasuries and are on the hunt for a good inflation hedge. They kept rejecting Fed's rates as mispriced relative to the market, even after Trump TACO'd!
Big money is not buying Trump's "the war will end soon, oil prices will drop like a rock". They keep pulling money out of Treasuries. They seem to believe oil prices will remain somewhat elevated even after the crisis is resolved.
The only inflation hedge left here is Crypto. The trillions getting out of gold and Treasuries will flow into crypto soon. Let that sink in.
[BTFD before crypto blasts off!]
The holders of the US debt have dumped Treasuries and are on the hunt for a good inflation hedge. They kept rejecting Fed's rates as mispriced relative to the market, even after Trump TACO'd!
Big money is not buying Trump's "the war will end soon, oil prices will drop like a rock". They keep pulling money out of Treasuries. They seem to believe oil prices will remain somewhat elevated even after the crisis is resolved.
The only inflation hedge left here is Crypto. The trillions getting out of gold and Treasuries will flow into crypto soon. Let that sink in.
[BTFD before crypto blasts off!]
π€―2π1
Bull Case
π¨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially alteredβ¦
π¨GOOLSBEE: REMAIN OPTIMISTIC THAT BY THE END OF 2026 RATES COULD GO DOWN, BUT NEED PROOF ON INFLATION
*Miran: still projecting four rate cuts for 2026
Even Golsbee (non voter) is leaning dovish after dissenting in December.
Warsh, Miran, Bowman, Paulson and Waller are dovish for 2026. That's already 5 out of the 6 votes needed to cut in Warsh's Fed.
Translation: The FOMC will stick to the plan and vote to cut more in 2026. They will run it hot and crypto will moon.
When China moves on Taiwan in 2027 Warsh will come out as a TOMA-hawk and then the bull market will end.
[Ignore Trump and BTFD before everything rips! Trump is the chief manipulator]
*Miran: still projecting four rate cuts for 2026
Even Golsbee (non voter) is leaning dovish after dissenting in December.
Warsh, Miran, Bowman, Paulson and Waller are dovish for 2026. That's already 5 out of the 6 votes needed to cut in Warsh's Fed.
Translation: The FOMC will stick to the plan and vote to cut more in 2026. They will run it hot and crypto will moon.
When China moves on Taiwan in 2027 Warsh will come out as a TOMA-hawk and then the bull market will end.
[Ignore Trump and BTFD before everything rips! Trump is the chief manipulator]
π3π1
Bull Case
π¨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially alteredβ¦
π¨THE FED IS CHOKING THE GOLDEN GOOSE: OPENAI OFFERING PE A GUARANTEED MINIMUM RETURN OF 17.5%, AS WELL AS EARLY ACCESS TO MODELS NOT YET IN PUBLIC RELEASE
This is a great example of the distortions caused by Powell's Fed. OpenAI shouldn't have to guarantee 17.5% return to secure funding for a distribution that could slash costs by 50% for its customers.
This is why Kevin Warsh wants to cut rates this year. The Fed needs to get out of AI's way ASAP.
This is a great example of the distortions caused by Powell's Fed. OpenAI shouldn't have to guarantee 17.5% return to secure funding for a distribution that could slash costs by 50% for its customers.
This is why Kevin Warsh wants to cut rates this year. The Fed needs to get out of AI's way ASAP.
π3π©1
Bull Case
π¨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially alteredβ¦
π¨BULLISH: CRYPTO FEAR AND GREED 11
Foundations are actively trying to milk the geopol FUD by torching their own trust factors. No marketing, falling volumes, fewer Github updates and more FUD.
Insiders know this is the year of the blow off tops. They're trying to shake out as many holders as possible.
[Don't fall for it, BTFD!]
Foundations are actively trying to milk the geopol FUD by torching their own trust factors. No marketing, falling volumes, fewer Github updates and more FUD.
Insiders know this is the year of the blow off tops. They're trying to shake out as many holders as possible.
[Don't fall for it, BTFD!]
π―2πΎ2π2π1
Bull Case
π¨THE FED IS CHOKING THE GOLDEN GOOSE: OPENAI OFFERING PE A GUARANTEED MINIMUM RETURN OF 17.5%, AS WELL AS EARLY ACCESS TO MODELS NOT YET IN PUBLIC RELEASE This is a great example of the distortions caused by Powell's Fed. OpenAI shouldn't have to guaranteeβ¦
π¨SOFTWARE INDEX IGV FALLS ~4% ON NEW AI AGENT RELEASES FROM ANTHROPIC AND AMAZON WEB SERVICES.
Kevin Warsh sees this as a sign that AI deflation is on track in software despite high rates.
AI driven productivity is widely blamed for SaaS's ~30% drop from its October high.
Now Warsh would want to see the same across all sectors, but high rates get in the way of AI adoption.
If Jerome "Too Slow" Powell dropped the 1970s playbook, AI would already be fueling a broad productivity boom.
Kevin Warsh will fix this.
[BTFD ASAP before everyone realizes what Warsh plans to do and crypto moons!]
Kevin Warsh sees this as a sign that AI deflation is on track in software despite high rates.
AI driven productivity is widely blamed for SaaS's ~30% drop from its October high.
Now Warsh would want to see the same across all sectors, but high rates get in the way of AI adoption.
If Jerome "Too Slow" Powell dropped the 1970s playbook, AI would already be fueling a broad productivity boom.
Kevin Warsh will fix this.
[BTFD ASAP before everyone realizes what Warsh plans to do and crypto moons!]
π―2π2
Bull Case
π¨Metals have topped. 1.3 billion ounces of silver traded in the Shanghai morning session today. That's nearly 2x global annual mine supply. Shanghai premium crushed from $25 to $4.81. [In the coming weeks, trillions will rotate out of metals into crypto.β¦
π¨TRADERS REPORT CRYPTO ROTATION SIGNAL FROM GOLD INTO BITCOIN
We warned you that metals topped in late January, when Warsh was announced. In this environment there is simply nowhere else to go for big money.
The only inflation hedge now is crypto.
The 2026 reflation thesis is starting to bleed into the mainstream, but we're still very early.
[BTFD ASAP before more traders wake up!]
We warned you that metals topped in late January, when Warsh was announced. In this environment there is simply nowhere else to go for big money.
The only inflation hedge now is crypto.
The 2026 reflation thesis is starting to bleed into the mainstream, but we're still very early.
[BTFD ASAP before more traders wake up!]
π3πΎ1π1
π¨IRAN ALLOWS THE KINGDOM OF SPAIN TO USE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WITH COMPLETE FREEDOM WITHOUT RESTRICTIONS OR BARRIERS THAT IMPEDE THE MARITIME NAVIGATION OF SPANISH SHIPS AND TANKERS.
Spain has just shown the world how to open the Strait of Hormuz on your own.
[Ignore all Iran FUD and BTFD!]
Spain has just shown the world how to open the Strait of Hormuz on your own.
[Ignore all Iran FUD and BTFD!]
π3π€£3π2
Bull Case
π¨A CEASEFIRE FOR A PERIOD OF ONE MONTH WILL BE ANNOUNCED ACCORDING TO A MECHANISM THAT WITKOFF AND KUSHNER ARE WORKING ON - ISRAELI CHANNEL 12 Btc seems to be pumping on this. [BTFD ASAP!!]
π¨MORE BULLISH CEASEFIRE REPORTS: US SEEKING MONTH-LONG CEASEFIRE TO DISCUSS 15-POINT AGREEMENT WITH IRAN -NYT
*The United States has delivered a 15-point plan to Iran to end the Middle East war, routed through Pakistan, whose army chief, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, acts as the key intermediary.
*US 15-point document demands no material to be enriched on iranian soil - Channel 12
*The plan addresses Iranβs ballistic missile and nuclear programs and maritime routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
*Pakistan offers to host talks if both sides agree
The market is struggling to price in these reports after weeks of fake ceasefires. The offer itself seems confirmed and it's still bullish even if Iran rejects it.
[Trump is folding, BTFD!]
*The United States has delivered a 15-point plan to Iran to end the Middle East war, routed through Pakistan, whose army chief, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, acts as the key intermediary.
*US 15-point document demands no material to be enriched on iranian soil - Channel 12
*The plan addresses Iranβs ballistic missile and nuclear programs and maritime routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
*Pakistan offers to host talks if both sides agree
The market is struggling to price in these reports after weeks of fake ceasefires. The offer itself seems confirmed and it's still bullish even if Iran rejects it.
[Trump is folding, BTFD!]
π3β€1πΎ1π1
Bull Case
π¨SOFTWARE INDEX IGV FALLS ~4% ON NEW AI AGENT RELEASES FROM ANTHROPIC AND AMAZON WEB SERVICES. Kevin Warsh sees this as a sign that AI deflation is on track in software despite high rates. AI driven productivity is widely blamed for SaaS's ~30% drop fromβ¦
π¨BULLISH: OPENAI SHUTS DOWN SORA AND DROPS VIDEO FEATURES FROM CHATGPT; DISNEY PULLS OUT OF $1BN DEAL
Jerome "Too Late" Powell is putting an artificial stupidity ceiling on CAPEX. Under ZIRP, OpenAI wouldn't be offering junk-bond-like guaranteed returns or cutting GPU spend.
There is no AI bubble.
Powell is starving the greatest productivity engine in history over inflation fears. Trump needs to fire him ASAP.
Kevin Warsh can't come soon enough!
Crypto will pump hard when markets learn to see through geopol FUD and understand Warsh will cut this year.
[BTFD now while crypto markets are still cold!]
Jerome "Too Late" Powell is putting an artificial stupidity ceiling on CAPEX. Under ZIRP, OpenAI wouldn't be offering junk-bond-like guaranteed returns or cutting GPU spend.
There is no AI bubble.
Powell is starving the greatest productivity engine in history over inflation fears. Trump needs to fire him ASAP.
Kevin Warsh can't come soon enough!
Crypto will pump hard when markets learn to see through geopol FUD and understand Warsh will cut this year.
[BTFD now while crypto markets are still cold!]
π€£4β€2π1π€―1π―1
Bull Case
π¨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially alteredβ¦
π¨BULLISH: SPACEX PLANS TO FILE ITS IPO WITHIN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS; LISTING POSSIBLE AS SOON AS JUNE; COULD RAISE MORE THAN $75 BILLION
This is why Elon can't stop talking about building cities on the moon. He knows 2026 is the last exit and 2027 is too late.
Big money knows the Fed will run it hot this year. A lot of big IPOs coming.
[BTFD before more people figure out what's about to happen and crypto rips!]
This is why Elon can't stop talking about building cities on the moon. He knows 2026 is the last exit and 2027 is too late.
Big money knows the Fed will run it hot this year. A lot of big IPOs coming.
[BTFD before more people figure out what's about to happen and crypto rips!]
π6π€‘2π₯1π€―1
Bull Case
π¨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially alteredβ¦
π¨BULLISH: S&P GLOBAL US PMI POINTS TO BROAD GROWTH: MANUFACTURING AT MULTI-MONTH HIGHS, SERVICES EXPANDING, WITH IMPROVING CONFIDENCE, PROFITS, AND REAL WAGES. (S&P Global/Bloomberg)
This is a national 'running hot' signal because S&P Global PMI covers the entire US; Richmond PMI is just one region.
The reflation trade is going according to plan. Be paytient, things are about to get very interesting.
This is a national 'running hot' signal because S&P Global PMI covers the entire US; Richmond PMI is just one region.
The reflation trade is going according to plan. Be paytient, things are about to get very interesting.
π4πΏ2πΎ1
Bull Case
π¨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially alteredβ¦
π¨BULLISH: THE US TRUCKING MARKET IS IN EXTREME TIGHTENING (7.66): REJECTIONS RISING, CAPACITY CONSTRAINED, SPOT DOMINATES
1. Liberation Day tariffs were meant to reshore manufacturing, and they worked. Freight doesn't lie, manufacturing has been expanding for months.
2. 2026 is the year to run it hot. When truckers say "No" that's the floor, shipping rates must go up. When shipping rates go up, the cost of everything goes up.
3. The Warsh Pivot: The Fed will look past inflation and cut this year, as Kevin Warsh bets AI driven productivity will offset costs.
[2026 is the year of blow off tops for crypto, BTFD!]
1. Liberation Day tariffs were meant to reshore manufacturing, and they worked. Freight doesn't lie, manufacturing has been expanding for months.
2. 2026 is the year to run it hot. When truckers say "No" that's the floor, shipping rates must go up. When shipping rates go up, the cost of everything goes up.
3. The Warsh Pivot: The Fed will look past inflation and cut this year, as Kevin Warsh bets AI driven productivity will offset costs.
[2026 is the year of blow off tops for crypto, BTFD!]
π€―3π2π1π1
Bull Case
π¨BULLISH: THE US TRUCKING MARKET IS IN EXTREME TIGHTENING (7.66): REJECTIONS RISING, CAPACITY CONSTRAINED, SPOT DOMINATES 1. Liberation Day tariffs were meant to reshore manufacturing, and they worked. Freight doesn't lie, manufacturing has been expandingβ¦
π¨TOM LEE'S BITMINE JUST BOUGHT ANOTHER 67,111 ETH WORTH $145M
He knows what's coming this year that's why he can't stop buying the dip.
ICYMI: Recently Bitmine also invested $200 million in Beast Industries, the company of YouTuber MrBeast.
Mr Beast generates 5 billion views per month, which is great for exit liquidity during a blow off top.
He knows what's coming this year that's why he can't stop buying the dip.
ICYMI: Recently Bitmine also invested $200 million in Beast Industries, the company of YouTuber MrBeast.
Mr Beast generates 5 billion views per month, which is great for exit liquidity during a blow off top.
π€―4π2π1π€£1
Bull Case
π¨LARGE INFORMED PLAYERS HAVE BEEN RISK ON SINCE LIBERATION DAY AND ARE INCREASING THEIR EXPOSURE FURTHER DURING THIS GEOPOL DIP. *March 2021: Admiral Davidson, head of US Indo-Pacific Command, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee that a Chineseβ¦
π¨BULLISH CONFIRMATION FROM MORGAN STANLEY: BIG MONEY HAS BEEN AGGRESSIVELY ROTATING INTO USD IN Q1 2026; WE'VE SEEN MASSIVE ETF INFLOWS SO FAR THIS YEAR, +$518B YTD, +30% VS LAST YEAR, 5X NORMAL
Large players were briefed by the CIA on a potential 2027 Taiwan crisis as early as 2023. They've known for years that the Fed would have to run it hot in 2026.
That's why they can't stop buying risk. 2026 is the last exit and 2027 is too late.
[BTFD ASAP!!]
Large players were briefed by the CIA on a potential 2027 Taiwan crisis as early as 2023. They've known for years that the Fed would have to run it hot in 2026.
That's why they can't stop buying risk. 2026 is the last exit and 2027 is too late.
[BTFD ASAP!!]
π₯2β€1π€―1π1π€£1
Bull Case
π¨MORE BULLISH CEASEFIRE REPORTS: US SEEKING MONTH-LONG CEASEFIRE TO DISCUSS 15-POINT AGREEMENT WITH IRAN -NYT *The United States has delivered a 15-point plan to Iran to end the Middle East war, routed through Pakistan, whose army chief, Field Marshal Syedβ¦
π¨IRAN REJECTS CEASEFIRE OFFER; SOURCES SAY IRAN WILL NOT ACCEPT A CEASEFIRE OR ENTER TALKS WITH PARTIES THAT BREACHED AGREEMENTS: FARS NEWS
Trump will make them a better offer.
[If we dip, BTFD!]
Trump will make them a better offer.
[If we dip, BTFD!]
π4π₯±2π©1π1
Bull Case
π¨IRAN REJECTS CEASEFIRE OFFER; SOURCES SAY IRAN WILL NOT ACCEPT A CEASEFIRE OR ENTER TALKS WITH PARTIES THAT BREACHED AGREEMENTS: FARS NEWS Trump will make them a better offer. [If we dip, BTFD!]
π¨SUMMARY OF IRAN'S OFFICIAL RESPONSE TO THE US OFFER
Stalemate is bullish. Trump has got plenty that Iran wants. He can easily negotiate himself out of this.
Stalemate is bullish. Trump has got plenty that Iran wants. He can easily negotiate himself out of this.
π4π1π₯΄1