🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)

Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered both the probabilities and the timing around Taiwan, as well as the parabolic phase of the bull market.

With the purge that began in October 2025, the internal balance within the CCP has shifted decisively. The 2027 camp is now prevailing, materially increasing geopolitical risk, as Xi sidelined the long-horizon 2035 faction. This stretched the cycle and slowed everything down, sending metals vertical as China and Asia began positioning for conflict risk.

The explosive move in gold and silver didn't end the bull market, it extended it.

A credible war scenario requires the Fed to retain room for aggressive hikes in 2027 to enforce dollar strength and preserve weaponization optionality, as seen with Russia in 2022. For that leverage to exist, policy must be looser beforehand, which is why easing into 2026 is coming, and Warsh's pick confirms it. In Iran and Venezuela (China's sanctioned energy anchors), the US is already weaponizing energy to make a 2027 Taiwan intervention economically and logistically unaffordable for Beijing.

2026 is the global reflation trade.

To prepare for a potential 2027 escalation, the Fed needs dry powder. Rates must be cut aggressively in 2026 to create a buffer that can later be used via tightening to weaponize the dollar during a conflict, a 2021-2022 style setup, but on steroids.

BTFD and chill, everything will rip soon!

🚨A LOT OF FUD IS CIRCULATING ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

Nothing broke in crypto on Oct 10.

Oct 10 is National Day in Taiwan. It was also one week before the Fourth Plenum and the Ministry of National Defense announcement expelling Gen. He Weidong, Adm. Miao Hua, and others. Multiple open source indicators around Oct 10 pointed to a purge process being finalized internally ahead of public disclosure.

This set the final phase of the current cycle in motion. Metals ripped. BTC began a 50% correction to facilitate a leverage reset ahead of the final parabolic phase of 2026.

Like we explained in our post on Feb 6, the Fed is also expected to cut more this year. They will run it hot before a very hawkish 2027 (weaponization of USD) in response to China's expected move on Taiwan.

2026 is bullish. BTFD and chill!

🚨THE WARSH PIVOT

Liquidity expert Michael Howell has just released a 2026 outlook that aligns closely with our geopolitical bull thesis, outlining an expansionary "Warsh Pivot" that points to rising liquidity despite a strong economic backdrop. Howell's view for 2026:

1) The Fed under Kevin Warsh (a hawk) is unlikely to pursue QT in 2026 and will deliver a few rate cuts, though fewer than Trump would like.

2) The Treasury, under Bessent, will run "QE-not-QE" via heavier short-term bill issuance, effectively channeling interest payments into the private sector and boosting liquidity.

3) Banking deregulation and looser reserve constraints would further support credit expansion.

Bottom line: Despite rapid underlying economic momentum, Howell expects Main Street liquidity to expand in 2026 without formal Fed QE. An outlook that aligns with the broader "run it hot" view. 2026 will be expansionary for QT and hikes to be an option in 2027, as a response to China's move on Taiwan.

[Crypto will rip, BTFD!!]

🚨WHY IRAN OPERATION MAX PRESSURE 2.0 CONFIRMS OUR CRYPTO BULL CASE 2026

Trump just said that a regime change in Iran would be "the best thing that could happen", while sending another aircraft carrier to the region. The Maximum Pressure 2.0 campaign is officially about Iran's nuclear program. Unofficially, the deeper objective is to undermine China's energy security. If a Taiwan crisis emerges in 2027, China would depend heavily on steady flows of cheap imported oil to sustain its military operations.

Iran accounts for 12-13% of China's discounted crude imports. By targeting Iran's oil exports and cracking down on the so-called "dark fleet" that transports sanctioned crude to Asia, the US is effectively constraining a key source of low cost crude for Beijing.

WHY IS THIS BULLISH CRYPTO FOR 2026?

The Trump administration is moving on all fronts to contain a Chinese move on Taiwan in 2027. Financially, a Taiwan war will be fought through sanctions and a stronger US dollar (through rate hikes and quantitative tightening). But the Fed can't hike rates and conduct QT to fight China if inflation cools and job data remain soft (which, according to Kevin Warsh, is partly the effect AI is having on the economy). This is why 2026 is being set up as the year they run the economy hot, so they can wage a financial war in 2027. This is similar to how the Fed inexplicably labeled inflation as transitory for an entire year in 2021 before going hawkish in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.

For crypto this means one thing: a total melt up is incoming. 2021 was a test pump by comparison. In 2026 everything will rip toward new ATHs. BTFD and strap in!

🚨Chairman of the House Select Committee on the CCP John Moolenaar on 2026 & Taiwan:

• Xi's 2027 readiness deadline makes 2026 an important year where we will prepare for all scenarios using all available tools of our national power to ensure Beijing never decides an aggression against Taiwan will be fast, cheap or successful

[Translation: we will run it hot so we can weaponize the USD in 2027. BTFD!]

🚨THE BIGGEST TAX REFUND SEASON IN US HISTORY IS BEGINNING RIGHT NOW; MARCH PROJECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST LIQUIDITY MONTH IN US HISTORY FOR CONSUMERS.

The 2026 tax filing season officially opened on January 26, 2026, and because of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the IRS is projecting a record-breaking $370 billion in total refunds this season. Most taxpayers who file will see their OBBBA boosted refunds within 21 days.

[The plan was always to run it hot in 2026. BTFD before everything slips away!]

🚨ETH ETF HOLDERS ARE SHOWING DIAMOND HANDS

Eth down 50% since October, cumulative flows down barely 14%.

Institutions keep holding ETH because they know the playbook for this year is to run it hot. BTFD!

🚨TRUMP ON IRAN: WE HAVE TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL DEAL; OTHERWISE, BAD THINGS HAPPEN

[The TACO trade is back, BTFD!]

🚨TRUMP’S GLOBAL TARIFFS STRUCK DOWN BY US SUPREME COURT

We called this in September.

[BTFD before everything sends!]

🚨OPERATION MAX PRESSURE 2.0: UNLIKE THE INVASION FOOTPRINTS OF 1991 AND 2003, TODAY'S NAVAL BUILDUP PROJECTS DETERRENCE, NOT WAR.

[The TACO trade is back, BTFD before everything rips!]

🚨ICYMI: IT'S TACO TUESDAY 🌮

*Israeli intelligence assessment (via FT): Even with USS Gerald R. Ford arriving, US forward-deployed munitions limit intense airstrikes on Iran to just 4-5 days

*Ex-CIA agent John Kiriakou: VP JD Vance and Tulsi Gabbard lead the anti-war bloc within the Trump admin

*Trump denies reports that General Dan Caine warned against military action on Iran, calling them fake news. Trump says Caine prefers peace but would lead any strike if ordered and claims any conflict would be easily won.

*WSJ reports USS Gerald R. Ford's vacuum sewage system (650 toilets) averages ~1 maintenance call/day from clogs/backups amid 8+ month deployment in Middle East

[BTFD before everything rips!]

🚨BITCOIN IS NEARING ATH OVERSOLD TERRITORY

They had to send an entire armada to the Middle East to make retail sell their coins out of fear.

[BTFD before everything sends!]

🚨NYT: WASHINGTON INCREASINGLY VIEWS A TAIWAN BLOCKADE IN 2027 AS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN MARKETS ARE PRICING IN

*Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have treated a potential Chinese move on Taiwan as a risk within 2027
*Biden offered financial grants worth billions to improve the domestic production of chips
*Trump threatened billions in tariffs to essentially accomplish the same thing
*Xi Jinping "breathes heavy" when Taiwan is mentioned
*Mr Lutnick wants 40% of Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing in the US.

-sauce

[They will run it hot in 2026 before tightening everything in 2027. BTFD!]

🚨FEBRUARY 2026 13F FILINGS: JANE STREET, SUSQUEHANNA, BLACKROCK, GOLDMAN ARE POSITIONED FOR THE 2026 REFLATION TRADE

If they didn't believe the plan is to run it hot in 2026, they wouldn't be 5Xing their positions in the most volatile inflation hedge proxies on the market.