🚨IN Q4 2025 STOCKS CONSOLIDATED WHILE BITCOIN FELL 25%
Classic divergence that looks bearish short term, but historically sets the stage for capital rotation back into Bitcoin. Santa seasonality is next for stocks, with full blown rotation into crypto primed to start in 2026.
[BTFD spot and chill!]
Classic divergence that looks bearish short term, but historically sets the stage for capital rotation back into Bitcoin. Santa seasonality is next for stocks, with full blown rotation into crypto primed to start in 2026.
[BTFD spot and chill!]
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🚨US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HITS NEW CYCLE HIGH AT 4.6%. HIGHEST SINCE 2021!
Last week, the Fed's preferred measure of wage pressures, the Employment Cost Index (ECI), posted its weakest increase since mid-2021.
[The Fed is behind the curve, load up spot before they turn on the money printer!]
Last week, the Fed's preferred measure of wage pressures, the Employment Cost Index (ECI), posted its weakest increase since mid-2021.
[The Fed is behind the curve, load up spot before they turn on the money printer!]
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Bull Case
🚨WE'RE IN ALTSEASON. BTFD NOW OR FOMO LATER. BTC.D minus stables has failed every retest of the HL trendline since it broke below in the first week of Moonvember. BTC.d-s is at 64% and pressing lower, while the TGA liquidity flood looms ahead. Now is…
🚨CORE CPI AT JUST 2.62% Y/Y IN NOV, WELL UNDER 3% FORECAST.
Lowest print since March 2021 and lower than all 62 forecasters in Bloomberg’s survey predicted. The MOVE index also did a new cycle low yesterday, the Fed is about to get even more dovish!
[BTFD before everything rips and sell in 2026 when FOMO kicks in! We've got at least 6 months of parabolic bull ahead of us]
Lowest print since March 2021 and lower than all 62 forecasters in Bloomberg’s survey predicted. The MOVE index also did a new cycle low yesterday, the Fed is about to get even more dovish!
[BTFD before everything rips and sell in 2026 when FOMO kicks in! We've got at least 6 months of parabolic bull ahead of us]
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Forwarded from Techleaks24 🇵🇸
Tic toc Christmas alpha time.
I don’t know what coin you hold, but I do know that 99% of the crypto people out there hold old, obsolete tech that is either a fork of BTC, Eth or Cryptonote, and are waiting for a 10x pump to break even. You were late to the party and that’s why you were left behind holding a bag for years praying for a pump to break even.
The next frontier for digital cash DLT tech is privacy, and privacy will be fought on tech and tech alone. If you want to be early in privacy you must study the difference between Pedersen Commitments (old tech everyone has been using to hide amounts) and El Gamal (the future tech nobody uses). Just like those who had mastered blockchains & smart contracts in 2010-2014 got in BTC and ETH early, those who master/understand these primitives well will become the crypto royalty of the next 10-20 years.
But aspiring cypherpunk princesses and princes today are running out of time.
So let me help you save time, one more time.
Pedersen Commitments have 2 huge weaknesses that the big guys (those that have been in crypto since 2010) don’t want you to know about (yet). In their defense, they could have received gag orders from 3 letter agencies to STFU & are not at liberty to speak about this (because how else do you explain that there are NO public posts on this topic by anyreputable devs?!):
1. PCs, contrary to El Gamal, are not public key updatable
2. PCs, contrary to El Gamal, are not public key re-randomizable
This means any privacy chain that uses Pedersen Commitments will always have to opt for UTXO, which means wallet balances will be split among many single-use notes created in incoming transactions. For this reason they will always be traceable because to spend your money you will have to combine different notes forming a UTXO transaction type which when triangulated with your behavioral metadata exposes all your onchain transaction history.
That’s why the deep state loves Pedersen Commitments, because anything using them is fragile and can be traced in one way or another. Monero uses PCs to hide balances. Zcash uses PCs to hide balances. Aztec uses PCs to hide balances. MimbleWimble uses PCs to hide balances. ARRR uses PCs to hide balances. Same for Zano, Aleo and any privacy coin you can think of.
El Gamal closes this attack surface completely. When you think of ElGamal you probably think of Dero, but Dero had an inflation exploit as documented here, which is why I sold most of it. Yet not all of it because Dero and only Dero implements ElGamal correctly today. So I’m confused.
But I’m sure about ElGamal vs PCs. Study the tech, and be ready for what’s coming. Once word spreads about this we will see a whole new generation of coins built on ElGamal and only those who know the tech will be able to capture the upside.
Study the tech, and make up your own mind. But study the tech. That's the alpha.
Merry Christmas, fellow plebs!
I don’t know what coin you hold, but I do know that 99% of the crypto people out there hold old, obsolete tech that is either a fork of BTC, Eth or Cryptonote, and are waiting for a 10x pump to break even. You were late to the party and that’s why you were left behind holding a bag for years praying for a pump to break even.
The next frontier for digital cash DLT tech is privacy, and privacy will be fought on tech and tech alone. If you want to be early in privacy you must study the difference between Pedersen Commitments (old tech everyone has been using to hide amounts) and El Gamal (the future tech nobody uses). Just like those who had mastered blockchains & smart contracts in 2010-2014 got in BTC and ETH early, those who master/understand these primitives well will become the crypto royalty of the next 10-20 years.
But aspiring cypherpunk princesses and princes today are running out of time.
So let me help you save time, one more time.
Pedersen Commitments have 2 huge weaknesses that the big guys (those that have been in crypto since 2010) don’t want you to know about (yet). In their defense, they could have received gag orders from 3 letter agencies to STFU & are not at liberty to speak about this (because how else do you explain that there are NO public posts on this topic by any
1. PCs, contrary to El Gamal, are not public key updatable
2. PCs, contrary to El Gamal, are not public key re-randomizable
This means any privacy chain that uses Pedersen Commitments will always have to opt for UTXO, which means wallet balances will be split among many single-use notes created in incoming transactions. For this reason they will always be traceable because to spend your money you will have to combine different notes forming a UTXO transaction type which when triangulated with your behavioral metadata exposes all your onchain transaction history.
That’s why the deep state loves Pedersen Commitments, because anything using them is fragile and can be traced in one way or another. Monero uses PCs to hide balances. Zcash uses PCs to hide balances. Aztec uses PCs to hide balances. MimbleWimble uses PCs to hide balances. ARRR uses PCs to hide balances. Same for Zano, Aleo and any privacy coin you can think of.
El Gamal closes this attack surface completely. When you think of ElGamal you probably think of Dero, but Dero had an inflation exploit as documented here, which is why I sold most of it. Yet not all of it because Dero and only Dero implements ElGamal correctly today. So I’m confused.
But I’m sure about ElGamal vs PCs. Study the tech, and be ready for what’s coming. Once word spreads about this we will see a whole new generation of coins built on ElGamal and only those who know the tech will be able to capture the upside.
Study the tech, and make up your own mind. But study the tech. That's the alpha.
Merry Christmas, fellow plebs!
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The Real Objective Behind the Shrinking US Trade Deficit And Why It's Bullish for Crypto (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
The recent collapse of the US trade deficit, driven in part by tariff policy, has led some to focus narrowly on GDP growth.
Improving GDP is not the ultimate goal of reducing the trade deficit. The deeper objective is monetary: to reduce the net outflow of US dollars abroad.
This is where stablecoins assume a central role, becoming a critical strategic instrument that increasingly rivals, and in some functions outweighs, traditional banking channels.
Stablecoins allow the US to square the circle between domestic monetary control and global dollar demand. Physical and bank held dollars can be repatriated to the US financial system, while foreign users continue to access dollar liquidity through tokenized representations of USD.
In other words, dollars "come home," while dollar dominance is preserved through stablecoins.
The recent collapse of the US trade deficit, driven in part by tariff policy, has led some to focus narrowly on GDP growth.
Improving GDP is not the ultimate goal of reducing the trade deficit. The deeper objective is monetary: to reduce the net outflow of US dollars abroad.
This is where stablecoins assume a central role, becoming a critical strategic instrument that increasingly rivals, and in some functions outweighs, traditional banking channels.
Stablecoins allow the US to square the circle between domestic monetary control and global dollar demand. Physical and bank held dollars can be repatriated to the US financial system, while foreign users continue to access dollar liquidity through tokenized representations of USD.
In other words, dollars "come home," while dollar dominance is preserved through stablecoins.
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Bull Case
🚨DOLLAR DEBASEMENT TALK NOW AT THE SAME LEVEL AS IN EARLY 2021 The bull is reaching the stage where foreign big money short on USD is forced to buy back dollars to participate in the USD denominated bull market. [BTFD before they start FOMO bidding shitcoins!]
🚨DXY’s moving averages and MACD resemble those of 2021 (box on the left). At that time, starting in August, a prolonged rally was triggered.
As we explained in October, DXY tends to strengthen at the beginning of the final phase of a bull market. Strap in before everything rips!
As we explained in October, DXY tends to strengthen at the beginning of the final phase of a bull market. Strap in before everything rips!
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Forwarded from C
Have you or someone close to you been laid off recently?
Anonymous Poll
16%
Yes, me
11%
Yes, someone close to me
6%
Yes, but they already found a new job
10%
Not yet, but it feels likely
56%
No, not at all
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🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered both the probabilities and the timing around Taiwan, as well as the parabolic phase of the bull market.
With the purge that began in October 2025, the internal balance within the CCP has shifted decisively. The 2027 camp is now prevailing, materially increasing geopolitical risk, as Xi sidelined the long-horizon 2035 faction. This stretched the cycle and slowed everything down, sending metals vertical as China and Asia began positioning for conflict risk.
The explosive move in gold and silver didn't end the bull market, it extended it.
A credible war scenario requires the Fed to retain room for aggressive hikes in 2027 to enforce dollar strength and preserve weaponization optionality, as seen with Russia in 2022. For that leverage to exist, policy must be looser beforehand, which is why easing into 2026 is coming, and Warsh's pick confirms it. In Iran and Venezuela (China's sanctioned energy anchors), the US is already weaponizing energy to make a 2027 Taiwan intervention economically and logistically unaffordable for Beijing.
2026 is the global reflation trade.
To prepare for a potential 2027 escalation, the Fed needs dry powder. Rates must be cut aggressively in 2026 to create a buffer that can later be used via tightening to weaponize the dollar during a conflict, a 2021-2022 style setup, but on steroids.
BTFD and chill, everything will rip soon!
Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered both the probabilities and the timing around Taiwan, as well as the parabolic phase of the bull market.
With the purge that began in October 2025, the internal balance within the CCP has shifted decisively. The 2027 camp is now prevailing, materially increasing geopolitical risk, as Xi sidelined the long-horizon 2035 faction. This stretched the cycle and slowed everything down, sending metals vertical as China and Asia began positioning for conflict risk.
The explosive move in gold and silver didn't end the bull market, it extended it.
A credible war scenario requires the Fed to retain room for aggressive hikes in 2027 to enforce dollar strength and preserve weaponization optionality, as seen with Russia in 2022. For that leverage to exist, policy must be looser beforehand, which is why easing into 2026 is coming, and Warsh's pick confirms it. In Iran and Venezuela (China's sanctioned energy anchors), the US is already weaponizing energy to make a 2027 Taiwan intervention economically and logistically unaffordable for Beijing.
2026 is the global reflation trade.
To prepare for a potential 2027 escalation, the Fed needs dry powder. Rates must be cut aggressively in 2026 to create a buffer that can later be used via tightening to weaponize the dollar during a conflict, a 2021-2022 style setup, but on steroids.
BTFD and chill, everything will rip soon!
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Bull Case
🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered…
🚨A LOT OF FUD IS CIRCULATING ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
Nothing broke in crypto on Oct 10.
Oct 10 is National Day in Taiwan. It was also one week before the Fourth Plenum and the Ministry of National Defense announcement expelling Gen. He Weidong, Adm. Miao Hua, and others. Multiple open source indicators around Oct 10 pointed to a purge process being finalized internally ahead of public disclosure.
This set the final phase of the current cycle in motion. Metals ripped. BTC began a 50% correction to facilitate a leverage reset ahead of the final parabolic phase of 2026.
Like we explained in our post on Feb 6, the Fed is also expected to cut more this year. They will run it hot before a very hawkish 2027 (weaponization of USD) in response to China's expected move on Taiwan.
2026 is bullish. BTFD and chill!
Nothing broke in crypto on Oct 10.
Oct 10 is National Day in Taiwan. It was also one week before the Fourth Plenum and the Ministry of National Defense announcement expelling Gen. He Weidong, Adm. Miao Hua, and others. Multiple open source indicators around Oct 10 pointed to a purge process being finalized internally ahead of public disclosure.
This set the final phase of the current cycle in motion. Metals ripped. BTC began a 50% correction to facilitate a leverage reset ahead of the final parabolic phase of 2026.
Like we explained in our post on Feb 6, the Fed is also expected to cut more this year. They will run it hot before a very hawkish 2027 (weaponization of USD) in response to China's expected move on Taiwan.
2026 is bullish. BTFD and chill!
😈3❤2💩2🥱2🤯1
Bull Case
🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered…
🚨THE WARSH PIVOT
Liquidity expert Michael Howell has just released a 2026 outlook that aligns closely with our geopolitical bull thesis, outlining an expansionary "Warsh Pivot" that points to rising liquidity despite a strong economic backdrop. Howell's view for 2026:
1) The Fed under Kevin Warsh (a hawk) is unlikely to pursue QT in 2026 and will deliver a few rate cuts, though fewer than Trump would like.
2) The Treasury, under Bessent, will run "QE-not-QE" via heavier short-term bill issuance, effectively channeling interest payments into the private sector and boosting liquidity.
3) Banking deregulation and looser reserve constraints would further support credit expansion.
Bottom line: Despite rapid underlying economic momentum, Howell expects Main Street liquidity to expand in 2026 without formal Fed QE. An outlook that aligns with the broader "run it hot" view. 2026 will be expansionary for QT and hikes to be an option in 2027, as a response to China's move on Taiwan.
[Crypto will rip, BTFD!!]
Liquidity expert Michael Howell has just released a 2026 outlook that aligns closely with our geopolitical bull thesis, outlining an expansionary "Warsh Pivot" that points to rising liquidity despite a strong economic backdrop. Howell's view for 2026:
1) The Fed under Kevin Warsh (a hawk) is unlikely to pursue QT in 2026 and will deliver a few rate cuts, though fewer than Trump would like.
2) The Treasury, under Bessent, will run "QE-not-QE" via heavier short-term bill issuance, effectively channeling interest payments into the private sector and boosting liquidity.
3) Banking deregulation and looser reserve constraints would further support credit expansion.
Bottom line: Despite rapid underlying economic momentum, Howell expects Main Street liquidity to expand in 2026 without formal Fed QE. An outlook that aligns with the broader "run it hot" view. 2026 will be expansionary for QT and hikes to be an option in 2027, as a response to China's move on Taiwan.
[Crypto will rip, BTFD!!]
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Bull Case
🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered…
🚨WHY IRAN OPERATION MAX PRESSURE 2.0 CONFIRMS OUR CRYPTO BULL CASE 2026
Trump just said that a regime change in Iran would be "the best thing that could happen", while sending another aircraft carrier to the region. The Maximum Pressure 2.0 campaign is officially about Iran's nuclear program. Unofficially, the deeper objective is to undermine China's energy security. If a Taiwan crisis emerges in 2027, China would depend heavily on steady flows of cheap imported oil to sustain its military operations.
Iran accounts for 12-13% of China's discounted crude imports. By targeting Iran's oil exports and cracking down on the so-called "dark fleet" that transports sanctioned crude to Asia, the US is effectively constraining a key source of low cost crude for Beijing.
WHY IS THIS BULLISH CRYPTO FOR 2026?
The Trump administration is moving on all fronts to contain a Chinese move on Taiwan in 2027. Financially, a Taiwan war will be fought through sanctions and a stronger US dollar (through rate hikes and quantitative tightening). But the Fed can't hike rates and conduct QT to fight China if inflation cools and job data remain soft (which, according to Kevin Warsh, is partly the effect AI is having on the economy). This is why 2026 is being set up as the year they run the economy hot, so they can wage a financial war in 2027. This is similar to how the Fed inexplicably labeled inflation as transitory for an entire year in 2021 before going hawkish in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.
For crypto this means one thing: a total melt up is incoming. 2021 was a test pump by comparison. In 2026 everything will rip toward new ATHs. BTFD and strap in!
Trump just said that a regime change in Iran would be "the best thing that could happen", while sending another aircraft carrier to the region. The Maximum Pressure 2.0 campaign is officially about Iran's nuclear program. Unofficially, the deeper objective is to undermine China's energy security. If a Taiwan crisis emerges in 2027, China would depend heavily on steady flows of cheap imported oil to sustain its military operations.
Iran accounts for 12-13% of China's discounted crude imports. By targeting Iran's oil exports and cracking down on the so-called "dark fleet" that transports sanctioned crude to Asia, the US is effectively constraining a key source of low cost crude for Beijing.
WHY IS THIS BULLISH CRYPTO FOR 2026?
The Trump administration is moving on all fronts to contain a Chinese move on Taiwan in 2027. Financially, a Taiwan war will be fought through sanctions and a stronger US dollar (through rate hikes and quantitative tightening). But the Fed can't hike rates and conduct QT to fight China if inflation cools and job data remain soft (which, according to Kevin Warsh, is partly the effect AI is having on the economy). This is why 2026 is being set up as the year they run the economy hot, so they can wage a financial war in 2027. This is similar to how the Fed inexplicably labeled inflation as transitory for an entire year in 2021 before going hawkish in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.
For crypto this means one thing: a total melt up is incoming. 2021 was a test pump by comparison. In 2026 everything will rip toward new ATHs. BTFD and strap in!
🔥5💩2🌚2🤯1
Bull Case
🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered…
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VIEW IN TELEGRAM
🚨Chairman of the House Select Committee on the CCP John Moolenaar on 2026 & Taiwan:
• Xi's 2027 readiness deadline makes 2026 an important year where we will prepare for all scenarios using all available tools of our national power to ensure Beijing never decides an aggression against Taiwan will be fast, cheap or successful
[Translation: we will run it hot so we can weaponize the USD in 2027. BTFD!]
• Xi's 2027 readiness deadline makes 2026 an important year where we will prepare for all scenarios using all available tools of our national power to ensure Beijing never decides an aggression against Taiwan will be fast, cheap or successful
[Translation: we will run it hot so we can weaponize the USD in 2027. BTFD!]
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Forwarded from NOVRIX
been tracking this lately, PSCF is an ETF that tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Financials & Real Estate Index, providing concentrated exposure to the U.S. "small-cap" financial sector and moving away from the usual Wall Street giants. It holds a basket of approximately 160+ small-cap companies, primarily regional banks, insurance firms, and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). These smaller institutions are highly sensitive to regional economic growth and interest rate shifts, making them a key barometer for the broader economy, and as seen in the chart, index has spent years building a massive base and is now testing a major breakout level around 60–62, leading me to believe we might be on the verge of the most hated rally in history...
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Bull Case
🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered…
🚨THE BIGGEST TAX REFUND SEASON IN US HISTORY IS BEGINNING RIGHT NOW; MARCH PROJECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST LIQUIDITY MONTH IN US HISTORY FOR CONSUMERS.
The 2026 tax filing season officially opened on January 26, 2026, and because of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the IRS is projecting a record-breaking $370 billion in total refunds this season. Most taxpayers who file will see their OBBBA boosted refunds within 21 days.
[The plan was always to run it hot in 2026. BTFD before everything slips away!]
The 2026 tax filing season officially opened on January 26, 2026, and because of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the IRS is projecting a record-breaking $370 billion in total refunds this season. Most taxpayers who file will see their OBBBA boosted refunds within 21 days.
[The plan was always to run it hot in 2026. BTFD before everything slips away!]
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Bull Case
🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered…
🚨ETH ETF HOLDERS ARE SHOWING DIAMOND HANDS
Eth down 50% since October, cumulative flows down barely 14%.
Institutions keep holding ETH because they know the playbook for this year is to run it hot. BTFD!
Eth down 50% since October, cumulative flows down barely 14%.
Institutions keep holding ETH because they know the playbook for this year is to run it hot. BTFD!
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Bull Case
🚨WHY IRAN OPERATION MAX PRESSURE 2.0 CONFIRMS OUR CRYPTO BULL CASE 2026 Trump just said that a regime change in Iran would be "the best thing that could happen", while sending another aircraft carrier to the region. The Maximum Pressure 2.0 campaign is officially…
🚨TRUMP ON IRAN: WE HAVE TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL DEAL; OTHERWISE, BAD THINGS HAPPEN
[The TACO trade is back, BTFD!]
[The TACO trade is back, BTFD!]
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