Bull Case
π¨LAST WEEK INSTITUTIONS BOUGHT $356M SPOT ETH WHILE HUNTING DOWN LEVERAGED LONGS WITH FUD (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Week ending Sep 26: ETH ETFs sold 177,280 ETH ETH Treasuries bought 266,000 ETH π’ Net: 88,720 ETH, worth $356M at $4k, were accumulatedβ¦
π¨INSTITUTIONAL HEDGES ARE NOT LEVERAGE, DUMMY! (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
Altcoin OI surged by almost $10bn since the Sep 24 low. Some analysts are trying to sow panic by using alt coin OI as proof that this rally is driven by leverage.
Alt coin OI is a measure of hedging activity, not leverage. When institutions buy spot they hedge with shorts which increases OI. This is perfectly in line with macro flows that have shown 25% of what leaves the Fed ends in alts (~$75bn).
Funding rates signal leverage, but funding rates remain in the norm when compared to the rest of the year.
The September dump had nothing to do with leverage but was driven by the rotation from ETH ETFs to ETH Treasuries that some exploited to FUD by focusing on ETF outflows.
Conclusion: There is no leverage, this is a spot driven rally fueled by cheap liquidity. BTFD!
Altcoin OI surged by almost $10bn since the Sep 24 low. Some analysts are trying to sow panic by using alt coin OI as proof that this rally is driven by leverage.
Alt coin OI is a measure of hedging activity, not leverage. When institutions buy spot they hedge with shorts which increases OI. This is perfectly in line with macro flows that have shown 25% of what leaves the Fed ends in alts (~$75bn).
Funding rates signal leverage, but funding rates remain in the norm when compared to the rest of the year.
The September dump had nothing to do with leverage but was driven by the rotation from ETH ETFs to ETH Treasuries that some exploited to FUD by focusing on ETF outflows.
Conclusion: There is no leverage, this is a spot driven rally fueled by cheap liquidity. BTFD!
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Bull Case
Make Amerizuela Great Again. Tariffs + trade war = global hyperinflation => crypto global inflation hedge. The biggest bull in the history of humanity is coming.
π¨LONG DATED SOVEREIGN BONDS ARE DUMPING ACROSS THE BOARD
[Out of control inflation everywhere, BTFD before the global fiat crisis sends crypto to the moon!]
[Out of control inflation everywhere, BTFD before the global fiat crisis sends crypto to the moon!]
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Bull Case
π¨GOLDMAN EXPECTS INFLATION TO KEEP RISING IN Q4 UNTIL JAN 2026 A 1% rise in PCE equals four 25 bps cuts, pushing real rates lower and accelerating WRESBAL outflows. With $3T still parked in WRESBAL this bull market has a lot of jet fuel in the tank. [BTFDβ¦
π¨TRUMP'S TARIFFS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN CPI
[Translation: Trump's tariffs starting to push real rates down. BTFD!]
[Translation: Trump's tariffs starting to push real rates down. BTFD!]
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Bull Case
π¨2025 IS GOLD'S BEST YEAR SINCE 1979 [Because the inflation hedge trade is on steroids, BTFD before crypto catches up!]
π¨WHY ISN'T MY ALT PUMPING? (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
We're inside a global inflation hedge trade on steroids. Remember how BTC pumped in Nigeria, Turkey and Venezuela because of excessive money printing? The same thing is happening today at a global scale!
The entire world is moving toward the Venezuela scenario. Gold is the confirmation signal.
Crypto is starting to catch up: BTC pumps first, majors follow suit, then liquidity trickles down smaller alts. You have to wait for liquidity to move down the risk curve.
Show some conviction and buy spot before everything moons. Longing the Ponzi is the only way to survive. BTFD!
We're inside a global inflation hedge trade on steroids. Remember how BTC pumped in Nigeria, Turkey and Venezuela because of excessive money printing? The same thing is happening today at a global scale!
The entire world is moving toward the Venezuela scenario. Gold is the confirmation signal.
Crypto is starting to catch up: BTC pumps first, majors follow suit, then liquidity trickles down smaller alts. You have to wait for liquidity to move down the risk curve.
Show some conviction and buy spot before everything moons. Longing the Ponzi is the only way to survive. BTFD!
π8β€5π1π1π1
Bull Case
π¨DELINQUENCIES ON SUBPRIME AUTO LOANS HAVE RISEN FROM 2.24% TO 2.32% (EDGAR SEC FILINGS) [ABS delinquencies will force the Fed to cut moar, BTFD before everything goes full bullgazi!]
π¨US AUTO LOAN JUST HAD THEIR BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE MARCH 2020
The Fed will cut again in October.
[BTFD before JPow turns on the money printer and everything rips! Don't be a rational trader or you will be boiled by all the bad news and capitulate right before the big move comes.]
The Fed will cut again in October.
[BTFD before JPow turns on the money printer and everything rips! Don't be a rational trader or you will be boiled by all the bad news and capitulate right before the big move comes.]
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π¨NEW FILING WITH 3X LEVERED ETFS FOR BITCOIN, ETHEREUM, SOLANA AND XRP FROM GRANITESHARES
[Bullish SIR.trading, just like leveraged ETFs but without volatility decay! BTFD!]
[Bullish SIR.trading, just like leveraged ETFs but without volatility decay! BTFD!]
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π¨BTC FACES ITS MOST IMPORTANT TEST IN 8 YEARS (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
If BTC breaks above the 130kβ145k level, it will break a long term upper trendline that has lasted for 8 years (black line). That would mean only one thing: BTC's cycle could extend until 2027.
This is inline with our base case that points to a prolonged, exhaustive bull.
Macro supports it: gold keeps making new highs, the Fed is projected to stay dovish and keep cutting, and global sovereign debt markets are tightening further. These dynamics fuel the inflation hedge trade, and show no signs of slowing anytime soon.
Sentiment supports it too: the final phase of a cycle can't be driven solely by institutional investors, as it is now. Retail participation is needed, and so far, they've remained on the sidelines.
This is why we think BTC will break above that black line soon and shift the entire crypto market 4 year cycle forward.
[BTFD before bears start chasing the pump and everything melts up!]
If BTC breaks above the 130kβ145k level, it will break a long term upper trendline that has lasted for 8 years (black line). That would mean only one thing: BTC's cycle could extend until 2027.
This is inline with our base case that points to a prolonged, exhaustive bull.
Macro supports it: gold keeps making new highs, the Fed is projected to stay dovish and keep cutting, and global sovereign debt markets are tightening further. These dynamics fuel the inflation hedge trade, and show no signs of slowing anytime soon.
Sentiment supports it too: the final phase of a cycle can't be driven solely by institutional investors, as it is now. Retail participation is needed, and so far, they've remained on the sidelines.
This is why we think BTC will break above that black line soon and shift the entire crypto market 4 year cycle forward.
[BTFD before bears start chasing the pump and everything melts up!]
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