Bull Case
🚨WRESBAL (the reserve balances of commercial banks held at the Fed) dropped another $21B this week, to $3,160B. WRESBAL outflows will accelerate when the Fed starts cutting rates next week. [$3tn are about to flood markets and go risk on, BTFD!]
🚨QE NOT QE: WRESBAL (the reserve balances of commercial banks held at the Fed) dropped another $71B this week, to $3,002B.
Since August 20, a total $300B has been injected into the market from WRESBAL. ($400B since July 16!)
Stablecoin supply change since July 16: +$40B
10% of whatever leaves WRESBAL seems to spill over into stablecoins. This trend is only going to accelerate as the Fed ramps up rate cuts.
[Don't let leveraged long liquidations shake you out, BTFD before everything moons!]
Since August 20, a total $300B has been injected into the market from WRESBAL. ($400B since July 16!)
Stablecoin supply change since July 16: +$40B
10% of whatever leaves WRESBAL seems to spill over into stablecoins. This trend is only going to accelerate as the Fed ramps up rate cuts.
[Don't let leveraged long liquidations shake you out, BTFD before everything moons!]
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ALMOST 1/5 OF WHAT LEAVES WRESBAL ENDS UP IN ALTCOINS (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) With CPI at around 3.1%, the real return on WRESBAL is 1% and the real return on US 2Y Treasuries is less than 0.5%.
Obviously, when real interest rates fall, coming close to 0, gold, crypto, and even stocks become more attractive.
Since mid July, when we saw the first signs of tariff inflation coming to surface, banks have pulled $400B from WRESBAL. During the same time, we have seen a reported $80bn inflow into crypto. Of these, $74.5B has gone into alt coins through ETFs, treasuries, stablecoins and RWAs.
Therefore whether directly or indirectly, 18,6% of whatever banks pull from the Fed ends up in altcoins.
This is a spot bull market driven by cheap liquidity. With inflation trending higher and the Fed projected to cut more, banks will pull even more money out of WRESBAL.
Ignore noise and BTFD because there is no top in sight.
Obviously, when real interest rates fall, coming close to 0, gold, crypto, and even stocks become more attractive.
Since mid July, when we saw the first signs of tariff inflation coming to surface, banks have pulled $400B from WRESBAL. During the same time, we have seen a reported $80bn inflow into crypto. Of these, $74.5B has gone into alt coins through ETFs, treasuries, stablecoins and RWAs.
Therefore whether directly or indirectly, 18,6% of whatever banks pull from the Fed ends up in altcoins.
This is a spot bull market driven by cheap liquidity. With inflation trending higher and the Fed projected to cut more, banks will pull even more money out of WRESBAL.
Ignore noise and BTFD because there is no top in sight.
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Bull Case
🚨Chamath SPAC filed. It will invest in Defi, AI, energy, warfare. [We're officially back in 2021, BTFD!]
Chamath Palihapitiya's and Tom Lee's SPACs IPO'd today:
🟢 American Exceptionalism closed at $10.61 (+6.1%)
🟢 FutureCrest closed at $10.36 (+3.6%)
[Operating on levels of we're so back that haven’t been seen in a long time, BTFD!]
🟢 American Exceptionalism closed at $10.61 (+6.1%)
🟢 FutureCrest closed at $10.36 (+3.6%)
[Operating on levels of we're so back that haven’t been seen in a long time, BTFD!]
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Bull Case
🚨MIND THE ROTATION FROM ETH ETFS TO ETH TREASURIES (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) ETH is a yield bearing asset and at some point companies realize that contrary to BTC, it’s much better to hold Eth directly and stake it instead of holding it through an…
🚨LAST WEEK INSTITUTIONS BOUGHT $356M SPOT ETH WHILE HUNTING DOWN LEVERAGED LONGS WITH FUD (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
Week ending Sep 26:
ETH ETFs sold 177,280 ETH
ETH Treasuries bought 266,000 ETH
🟢 Net: 88,720 ETH, worth $356M at $4k, were accumulated by institutions.
As noted on September 8, ETH is a yield bearing asset. Since late August, institutions have been waking up to the fact that by holding ETH in an ETF they miss out on staking revenue.
Firms like Sharplink openly advertise their staking revenue, accelerating this realization.
To capitalize on the rotation, MSM stays focused mainly on ETF outflows while glossing over ETH Treasury inflows while KOLs call for lower prices on social media.
The past week this FUD strategy netted Treasuries an extra $356M in spot sell pressure and over $10B in futures liquidations.
The lesson here? Ignore the noise and BTFD spot before big money pumps its bags!
Week ending Sep 26:
ETH ETFs sold 177,280 ETH
ETH Treasuries bought 266,000 ETH
🟢 Net: 88,720 ETH, worth $356M at $4k, were accumulated by institutions.
As noted on September 8, ETH is a yield bearing asset. Since late August, institutions have been waking up to the fact that by holding ETH in an ETF they miss out on staking revenue.
Firms like Sharplink openly advertise their staking revenue, accelerating this realization.
To capitalize on the rotation, MSM stays focused mainly on ETF outflows while glossing over ETH Treasury inflows while KOLs call for lower prices on social media.
The past week this FUD strategy netted Treasuries an extra $356M in spot sell pressure and over $10B in futures liquidations.
The lesson here? Ignore the noise and BTFD spot before big money pumps its bags!
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Bull Case
🚨Core & Headline PCE both as expected but bouncing off Fed's 2% target. Inflation remains stealth, still not high enough to trigger a hawkish response from the Fed. Stealth inflation cuts real rates and pushes more money out of WRESBAL into crypto. [QE…
🚨GOLDMAN EXPECTS INFLATION TO KEEP RISING IN Q4 UNTIL JAN 2026
A 1% rise in PCE equals four 25 bps cuts, pushing real rates lower and accelerating WRESBAL outflows.
With $3T still parked in WRESBAL this bull market has a lot of jet fuel in the tank.
[BTFD before big money sends everything ballistic in Q4!]
A 1% rise in PCE equals four 25 bps cuts, pushing real rates lower and accelerating WRESBAL outflows.
With $3T still parked in WRESBAL this bull market has a lot of jet fuel in the tank.
[BTFD before big money sends everything ballistic in Q4!]
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🚨WHAT’S THE SAFEST & MOST PROFITABLE WAY TO MAXIMIZE RETURNS ON 1 ETH ON THE WAY UP? (exclusive bull alpha by @bullcase)
Starting capital 1 ETH, entry ETH price $4k, planned exit $10k (only a matter of time):
1. Spot: +$6k profit, no liquidation risk
2. Open 2x long with perps: +$16k return, liquidation risk: -50% price dump
3. SIR defi 2x ETH long: +$19.5k profit, no liquidation risk
The best part? It gives exponential returns if price pumps higher.
Let’s calculate profit for exit at $15k (starting capital 1 ETH, entry ETH price $4k, planned exit $15k):
1. Spot: +$11k (no liquidation risk)
2. Perps 2x: +$26k (with liquidation risk)
3. SIR defi 2x ETH long: $34.5k, no liquidation risk
There is one way to do this right & that’s SIR. Max profit with no liquidation risk and no volatility decay. Profit/loss depends exclusively on entry & exit price.
SIR is a new defi primitive on ETH that we @bullcase approve of 🤝
https://app.sir.trading/
https://app.sir.trading/leverage-calculator
Starting capital 1 ETH, entry ETH price $4k, planned exit $10k (only a matter of time):
1. Spot: +$6k profit, no liquidation risk
2. Open 2x long with perps: +$16k return, liquidation risk: -50% price dump
3. SIR defi 2x ETH long: +$19.5k profit, no liquidation risk
The best part? It gives exponential returns if price pumps higher.
Let’s calculate profit for exit at $15k (starting capital 1 ETH, entry ETH price $4k, planned exit $15k):
1. Spot: +$11k (no liquidation risk)
2. Perps 2x: +$26k (with liquidation risk)
3. SIR defi 2x ETH long: $34.5k, no liquidation risk
There is one way to do this right & that’s SIR. Max profit with no liquidation risk and no volatility decay. Profit/loss depends exclusively on entry & exit price.
SIR is a new defi primitive on ETH that we @bullcase approve of 🤝
https://app.sir.trading/
https://app.sir.trading/leverage-calculator
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Bull Case
🚨GOLDMAN EXPECTS INFLATION TO KEEP RISING IN Q4 UNTIL JAN 2026 A 1% rise in PCE equals four 25 bps cuts, pushing real rates lower and accelerating WRESBAL outflows. With $3T still parked in WRESBAL this bull market has a lot of jet fuel in the tank. [BTFD…
🚨BofA: Tariff-driven inflation and Fed cuts could push real rates below 0, making policy accommodative and signaling higher tolerance for inflation.
[BTFD before real rates go to zero and $3T from WRESBAL flood into markets!]
[BTFD before real rates go to zero and $3T from WRESBAL flood into markets!]
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Bull Case
ALMOST 1/5 OF WHAT LEAVES WRESBAL ENDS UP IN ALTCOINS (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) With CPI at around 3.1%, the real return on WRESBAL is 1% and the real return on US 2Y Treasuries is less than 0.5%. Obviously, when real interest rates fall, coming…
🚨Gold above $3800/oz
[It's going to be a long exhausting bull for crypto. Load up spot at these prices while you can before everything rips!]
[It's going to be a long exhausting bull for crypto. Load up spot at these prices while you can before everything rips!]
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Bull Case
🚨BULL BASE CASE UPDATE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Following the latest batch of US data (NFP, CPI, jobless claims), the 2Y Treasury yield (red curve on the chart) has been falling sharply, increasing the gap with the rates set by the Fed (black curve).…
🚨NOMURA: CHINESE M2 FLIPPED TSF IN AUGUST FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2023
TSF (Total Social Financing) is the amount of new credit flowing into the real Chinese economy. M2 > TSF means there is excess liquidity to be deployed into risk assets.
The Chinese Central Bank has injected almost one trillion dollars into the economy this year, which has also coincided with a bottoming out of the Yuan. This suggests the US and China must have quietly reached a deal to allow the yuan to strengthen against the dollar.
Taken together, these dynamics create powerful tailwinds for the ongoing crypto bull run that align perfectly with our base case scenario of 9 more months of bull left. (exclusive analysis added by @bullcase)
TSF (Total Social Financing) is the amount of new credit flowing into the real Chinese economy. M2 > TSF means there is excess liquidity to be deployed into risk assets.
The Chinese Central Bank has injected almost one trillion dollars into the economy this year, which has also coincided with a bottoming out of the Yuan. This suggests the US and China must have quietly reached a deal to allow the yuan to strengthen against the dollar.
Taken together, these dynamics create powerful tailwinds for the ongoing crypto bull run that align perfectly with our base case scenario of 9 more months of bull left. (exclusive analysis added by @bullcase)
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🚨Coinshares FUD: Digital asset investment products recorded US$812m in outflows last week, as expectations for two US interest rate cuts this year moderated following stronger than anticipated macroeconomic data, particularly the revised GDP and durable goods figures.
The "outflows" in the CoinShares report refer specifically to digital asset investment products, which are mainly ETFs and ETPs.
These outflows are happening because big money is moving out of BTC in favor of alts and out of ETH ETFs into ETH Treasuries (where Eth can be staked).
-Bitcoin ETPs: –$719M outflows
-Ethereum ETPs: –$409M outflows
-Solana ETPs: +$291M inflows
-XRP ETPs: +$93.1M inflows
[BTFD before everything rips, don't listen to institutional FUD!]
The "outflows" in the CoinShares report refer specifically to digital asset investment products, which are mainly ETFs and ETPs.
These outflows are happening because big money is moving out of BTC in favor of alts and out of ETH ETFs into ETH Treasuries (where Eth can be staked).
-Bitcoin ETPs: –$719M outflows
-Ethereum ETPs: –$409M outflows
-Solana ETPs: +$291M inflows
-XRP ETPs: +$93.1M inflows
[BTFD before everything rips, don't listen to institutional FUD!]
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