Bull Case
🚨Moar Early Cycle Signs: The percentage of US states with rising YoY unemployment topped above 80% and is falling fast, suggesting peak labor market stress is behind us. Historically such tops have marked the start of a new expansionary cycle. [We'll never…
🚨Mike Wilson: ROLLING RECESSION IS OVER (ended with Liberation Day) and the US is now in an early-cycle recovery.
[Wall St catching with early cycle signs. BTFD before everything moons!]
[Wall St catching with early cycle signs. BTFD before everything moons!]
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Bull Case
🚨Altcoin OI spread ATH: $30B surge over BTC, with $2bn added in the last 7 days! This OI surge is a clear indication that big money keeps rotating into altcoins. When institutions or whales buy alts spot, they hedge with futures pushing up OI. [Sell BTC…
🚨WHY WE DIPPED AND WHY YOU SHOULD BTFD (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
Like we noted this weekend, institutions have been hedging their surging altcoin spot positions with shorts in the futures market.
When an institution opens a short, someone else takes the long, usually a leveraged trader. Flushes hit the side with more leverage.
Institutions hedging spot positions are 'the strong hands'. The leveraged side is, as expected, the long side. After today's crash the altcoin-BTC OI spread decreased by 20%, down to 23.86bn from 30bn 2 days ago.
Those opening longs with leverage because institutions and whales are accumulating spot will have their stops hunted.
Buy spot, don't touch leverage. That's all you need to do.
Like we noted this weekend, institutions have been hedging their surging altcoin spot positions with shorts in the futures market.
When an institution opens a short, someone else takes the long, usually a leveraged trader. Flushes hit the side with more leverage.
Institutions hedging spot positions are 'the strong hands'. The leveraged side is, as expected, the long side. After today's crash the altcoin-BTC OI spread decreased by 20%, down to 23.86bn from 30bn 2 days ago.
Those opening longs with leverage because institutions and whales are accumulating spot will have their stops hunted.
Buy spot, don't touch leverage. That's all you need to do.
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🚨Discretionary (independent) investor equity exposure ticked up this week but they are still stuck at neutral with plenty of room to catch up.
Systematic strategy positioning ("Big Money") flipped discretionary investors in summer and has been rising ever since reaching the 92nd percentile today.
Crypto positioning mirrors equities: institutions are leading retail, as seen in ETF and DATCO inflows since summer, despite weak retail participation (low crypto app traffic).
[The pain trade is higher. Much higher. BTFD before institutions start pumping their bags!]
Systematic strategy positioning ("Big Money") flipped discretionary investors in summer and has been rising ever since reaching the 92nd percentile today.
Crypto positioning mirrors equities: institutions are leading retail, as seen in ETF and DATCO inflows since summer, despite weak retail participation (low crypto app traffic).
[The pain trade is higher. Much higher. BTFD before institutions start pumping their bags!]
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Bull Case
🚨Morgan Stanley Research: Fed Funds currently 100bps behind the market, a spread that's widening. *The disconnect between weak labor data and Fed caution creates near-term volatility, but supports the bull case if they catch up Morgan Stanley Research confirming…
🚨Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says neutral rate is 100-125 bps below current rate
*Golsbee: Inflation target still 2%
[That's why gold keeps ripping, the Fed is on a dovish autopilot but can't afford to admit it. BTFD!]
*Golsbee: Inflation target still 2%
[That's why gold keeps ripping, the Fed is on a dovish autopilot but can't afford to admit it. BTFD!]
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🚨Bitwise CIO: The Bitcoin Treasury trend may be slowing, but more companies are eyeing 5–10% BTC allocations on their balance sheets.
[That’s Bitcoin penetrating corporate treasury assets as an inflation hedge. Every 1% allocation adds $20k to BTC's fair price!]
[That’s Bitcoin penetrating corporate treasury assets as an inflation hedge. Every 1% allocation adds $20k to BTC's fair price!]
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🚨New Calastone survey reveals imminent $235B liquidity big bang.
*Calastone: TradFi managers are accelerating fund tokenization, while DeFi platforms project a 50% surge in tokenized holdings to improve treasury management.
*Calastone: TradFi managers are accelerating fund tokenization, while DeFi platforms project a 50% surge in tokenized holdings to improve treasury management.
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Bull Case
🚨The gap between the S&P 500 and the weakening job market has widened significantly since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, when Powell still raised rates by 25bps. Today, that gap has reached an ATH. [This chart is the smoking gun that Powell's higher…
🚨Powell: downside risks to employment have risen, "one-time" price increases are likely over the next several quarters
[Powell will only get more dovish, BTFD before everything rips!]
[Powell will only get more dovish, BTFD before everything rips!]
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Bull Case
🚨Discretionary (independent) investor equity exposure ticked up this week but they are still stuck at neutral with plenty of room to catch up. Systematic strategy positioning ("Big Money") flipped discretionary investors in summer and has been rising ever…
🚨Crypto treasury companies (DATCOs) have now accumulated $105bn in assets, up from $60bn since June
[Same story as with stocks, insitutions have been accumulating while retail sits on the fence. BTFD before big money pumps their bags!]
[Same story as with stocks, insitutions have been accumulating while retail sits on the fence. BTFD before big money pumps their bags!]
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