Bull Case
π¨Alt coin OI has increased by over $3B since yesterday's FOMC When institutions and whales buy spot, they hedge their spot positions with futures. This is what pushes open interest higher. [Big money is rotating into altcoins, BTFD before they pump everything!]
π¨100 BTC just moved after being dormant for 12 years.
[The rotation into alts continues, show conviction and BTFD or you will be left behind!]
[The rotation into alts continues, show conviction and BTFD or you will be left behind!]
π³3πΎ2π€‘1π1
π¨ Bears capitulated yesterday.
This index tracks end-of-day flows, when institutions typically execute large orders (as opposed to retail-driven activity when market opens). Yesterday's close saw heavy bidding, fueling the rally.
[Big money is flooding in, BTFD before everything moons!]
This index tracks end-of-day flows, when institutions typically execute large orders (as opposed to retail-driven activity when market opens). Yesterday's close saw heavy bidding, fueling the rally.
[Big money is flooding in, BTFD before everything moons!]
π3π1π€‘1π1
Bull Case
π¨SELL YOUR GOLD FOR BITCOIN HERE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) BTC is dumping not because of PCE, which came inline with expectations, but because of gold retesting its ATH. This is the 4th retest since April. Our view remains that gold has toppedβ¦
π¨SELL YOUR GOLD FOR BITCOIN HERE 2 (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) The US yield curve has been steepening since yesterdayβs FOMC, with long term yields rising faster than short term ones. This creates strong headwinds for gold.
With the $3T parked in WRESBAL growing increasingly restless because of inflation and lower rates, gold now stands as the 2nd largest source of hot liquidity.
Rising yields pressure Big Money to rotate out of gold, since Treasuries, unlike gold, generate risk free yield. If these dynamics intensify they could mark a technical top for gold at the September monthly close.
A technical top will unlock trillions currently tied up in gold, and push that liquidity down the risk curve into crypto, sending everything parabolic. BTFD before it starts!
With the $3T parked in WRESBAL growing increasingly restless because of inflation and lower rates, gold now stands as the 2nd largest source of hot liquidity.
Rising yields pressure Big Money to rotate out of gold, since Treasuries, unlike gold, generate risk free yield. If these dynamics intensify they could mark a technical top for gold at the September monthly close.
A technical top will unlock trillions currently tied up in gold, and push that liquidity down the risk curve into crypto, sending everything parabolic. BTFD before it starts!
π€―3π₯1π€‘1π1
Bull Case
π¨WRESBAL (the reserve balances of commercial banks held at the Fed) dropped another $21B this week, to $3,160B. WRESBAL outflows will accelerate when the Fed starts cutting rates next week. [$3tn are about to flood markets and go risk on, BTFD!]
π¨BREAKING: $160B HAS FLOWED OUT OF WRESBAL INTO MARKETS OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS.
WRESBAL (reserve balances of commercial banks held at the Fed) outflows will only accelerate from here now that another rate cutting cycle has officially started.
[Big money is starting to flood markets. Show some conviction and BTFD or you gonna regret it for the rest of your life!]
WRESBAL (reserve balances of commercial banks held at the Fed) outflows will only accelerate from here now that another rate cutting cycle has officially started.
[Big money is starting to flood markets. Show some conviction and BTFD or you gonna regret it for the rest of your life!]
π€―3πΎ3π2π€‘1
π¨HOW DO DIFFERENT ASSETS PERFORM WHEN LIQUIDITY RETURNS? EQUITIES VS CRYPTO (exclusive market analysis by @bullcase)
EQUITIES react unevenly:
β³ in 1998, a cut fueled a 21% rally in 100 days;
β³ in 2001, after 9/11, easing lifted stocks only 10.7% before structural weakness resurfaced;
β³ in 2007, cuts came too late, with the S&P down 2.9% ahead of the GFC;
β³ in 2019, stabilization produced a modest 7.8% gain;
β³ in 2024, a surprise cut drove just 6.3% as stocks were already at cycle highs.
The lesson: in stocks timing matters, cuts during crises deliver outsized performance, while late or "maintenance" cuts tend to last less.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES, by contrast, display a more direct correlation with liquidity. Bitcoin has historically been the first responder but this time GENIUS has improved liquidity transmission by turning stablecoins (whose total market cap is approaching $300bn) into immediate conduits of dry powder for altcoins.
ETH and alt coin DATCO (treasury companies) are booming. RWAs are also flying. There is liquidity coming from all sides, and it's not going to stop any time soon.
The MOVE Index just made another low at 71.91, signaling Fed rhetoric will get even more dovish. $300 billion have exited WRESBAL in the last 30 days, but $3 trillion are still parked, the scale of capital rotation ahead.
In short, history shows equities deliver moderate gains in similar "risk management" contexts. But crypto, which is backed by GENIUS and the new institutional plumbing of ETFs & treasury solutions, stands to capture the lion's share of performance as the Fed embarks on a new rate-cutting cycle.
[BTFD before everything moons!]
EQUITIES react unevenly:
β³ in 1998, a cut fueled a 21% rally in 100 days;
β³ in 2001, after 9/11, easing lifted stocks only 10.7% before structural weakness resurfaced;
β³ in 2007, cuts came too late, with the S&P down 2.9% ahead of the GFC;
β³ in 2019, stabilization produced a modest 7.8% gain;
β³ in 2024, a surprise cut drove just 6.3% as stocks were already at cycle highs.
The lesson: in stocks timing matters, cuts during crises deliver outsized performance, while late or "maintenance" cuts tend to last less.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES, by contrast, display a more direct correlation with liquidity. Bitcoin has historically been the first responder but this time GENIUS has improved liquidity transmission by turning stablecoins (whose total market cap is approaching $300bn) into immediate conduits of dry powder for altcoins.
ETH and alt coin DATCO (treasury companies) are booming. RWAs are also flying. There is liquidity coming from all sides, and it's not going to stop any time soon.
The MOVE Index just made another low at 71.91, signaling Fed rhetoric will get even more dovish. $300 billion have exited WRESBAL in the last 30 days, but $3 trillion are still parked, the scale of capital rotation ahead.
In short, history shows equities deliver moderate gains in similar "risk management" contexts. But crypto, which is backed by GENIUS and the new institutional plumbing of ETFs & treasury solutions, stands to capture the lion's share of performance as the Fed embarks on a new rate-cutting cycle.
[BTFD before everything moons!]
πΎ2π2π€‘1π€£1
Bull Case
π¨HOW DO DIFFERENT ASSETS PERFORM WHEN LIQUIDITY RETURNS? EQUITIES VS CRYPTO (exclusive market analysis by @bullcase) EQUITIES react unevenly: β³ in 1998, a cut fueled a 21% rally in 100 days; β³ in 2001, after 9/11, easing lifted stocks only 10.7% beforeβ¦
π¨S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 all hit an ATH yesterday.
[Crypto is about to do in 2 months what they did in the last 20 years, BTFD!]
[Crypto is about to do in 2 months what they did in the last 20 years, BTFD!]
πΎ2π1π€‘1
Bull Case
π¨MIND THE ROTATION FROM ETH ETFS TO ETH TREASURIES (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) ETH is a yield bearing asset and at some point companies realize that contrary to BTC, itβs much better to hold Eth directly and stake it instead of holding it through anβ¦
Bitcoin/Ethereum Spot ETF Flows: 18 September 2025
π’Bitcoin ETFs: $163.0M net inflows
π’Ethereum ETFs: $213.1M net inflows
[ETH ETF inflows have resumed, alt season will accelerate. BTFD!]
π’Bitcoin ETFs: $163.0M net inflows
π’Ethereum ETFs: $213.1M net inflows
[ETH ETF inflows have resumed, alt season will accelerate. BTFD!]
π4π₯1π€‘1
Bull Case
π¨Goldman: Major central banks are cutting rates from their cycle peak, but yields are still rising. This is what happens when you cut rates with high inflation, the liquidity freed up from Central Banks doesn't go to buy Treasuries but flows into gold, bitcoinβ¦
π¨46% of global crypto users now see crypto as an inflation hedge, up from 29% in Q1 2025 (MEXC survey)
[The guys googling credit card debt, are going to hedge against inflation with memecoins. BTFD before retail storms in!]
[The guys googling credit card debt, are going to hedge against inflation with memecoins. BTFD before retail storms in!]
π€£5π3π€‘1πΎ1
π¨The gap between the S&P 500 and the weakening job market has widened significantly since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, when Powell still raised rates by 25bps. Today, that gap has reached an ATH.
[This chart is the smoking gun that Powell's higher for longer strategy has been a disaster. BTFD before the Fed becomes ultradovish!]
[This chart is the smoking gun that Powell's higher for longer strategy has been a disaster. BTFD before the Fed becomes ultradovish!]
π€―3π1π€‘1πΎ1π1
Bull Case
π¨Early Cycle Signs: Temporary help services and overtime hours in nonfarm payrolls have bottomed and are rising. Historically this has marked the start of a new expansionary cycle. [This is inline with our base case of 9 more months of bull. BTFD!]
π¨Moar Early Cycle Signs: The percentage of US states with rising YoY unemployment topped above 80% and is falling fast, suggesting peak labor market stress is behind us.
Historically such tops have marked the start of a new expansionary cycle.
[We'll never see these prices again for a long time, show some conviction and BTFD!]
Historically such tops have marked the start of a new expansionary cycle.
[We'll never see these prices again for a long time, show some conviction and BTFD!]
πΎ4π€―1π€‘1π
1πΏ1
Bull Case
π¨Altseason is intensifying: the gap between open interest between BTC and altcoins has just reached a new record high. When institutions or whales buy spot, they hedge with futures pushing up the OI. [This is evidence that institutions have been buyingβ¦
π¨Altcoin OI spread ATH: $30B surge over BTC, with $2bn added in the last 7 days!
This OI surge is a clear indication that big money keeps rotating into altcoins. When institutions or whales buy alts spot, they hedge with futures pushing up OI.
[Sell BTC for alts before whales pump everything!]
This OI surge is a clear indication that big money keeps rotating into altcoins. When institutions or whales buy alts spot, they hedge with futures pushing up OI.
[Sell BTC for alts before whales pump everything!]
π3π2πΎ2π€‘1π³1
Bull Case
π¨BULL BASE CASE UPDATE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Following the latest batch of US data (NFP, CPI, jobless claims), the 2Y Treasury yield (red curve on the chart) has been falling sharply, increasing the gap with the rates set by the Fed (black curve).β¦
π¨Morgan Stanley Research: Fed Funds currently 100bps behind the market, a spread that's widening.
*The disconnect between weak labor data and Fed caution creates near-term volatility, but supports the bull case if they catch up
Morgan Stanley Research confirming what we noted in our last bull base case update.
Historically, the Fed has no choice but to cut when the 2Y yield keeps dipping under EFFR.
Even if it doesn't cut right away, it cuts more later.
The Fed has been off tune since the SVB collapse. The Sept FOMC presser made it clear Powell finally understands higher for longer has been a disaster.
He will keep cutting.
[BTFD before Powell turns ultra dovish and everything moons!]
*The disconnect between weak labor data and Fed caution creates near-term volatility, but supports the bull case if they catch up
Morgan Stanley Research confirming what we noted in our last bull base case update.
Historically, the Fed has no choice but to cut when the 2Y yield keeps dipping under EFFR.
Even if it doesn't cut right away, it cuts more later.
The Fed has been off tune since the SVB collapse. The Sept FOMC presser made it clear Powell finally understands higher for longer has been a disaster.
He will keep cutting.
[BTFD before Powell turns ultra dovish and everything moons!]
π4π₯2π€£2π€‘1πΏ1
Bull Case
π¨MIND THE ROTATION FROM ETH ETFS TO ETH TREASURIES (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) ETH is a yield bearing asset and at some point companies realize that contrary to BTC, itβs much better to hold Eth directly and stake it instead of holding it through anβ¦
π¨The rotation from ETH ETFs into ETH Treasuries has dragged ETH's MVRV back into undervalued territory, after briefly surging past 2 in early September.
ETH is back to being technically undervalued.
[ETH is filling up the tank before the next leg up, BTFD before everything moons with it!]
ETH is back to being technically undervalued.
[ETH is filling up the tank before the next leg up, BTFD before everything moons with it!]
π6π₯1π€‘1π1π
1
Bull Case
π¨Moar Early Cycle Signs: The percentage of US states with rising YoY unemployment topped above 80% and is falling fast, suggesting peak labor market stress is behind us. Historically such tops have marked the start of a new expansionary cycle. [We'll neverβ¦
π¨Mike Wilson: ROLLING RECESSION IS OVER (ended with Liberation Day) and the US is now in an early-cycle recovery.
[Wall St catching with early cycle signs. BTFD before everything moons!]
[Wall St catching with early cycle signs. BTFD before everything moons!]
π©4π₯2πΎ2π€‘1π1
Bull Case
π¨Altcoin OI spread ATH: $30B surge over BTC, with $2bn added in the last 7 days! This OI surge is a clear indication that big money keeps rotating into altcoins. When institutions or whales buy alts spot, they hedge with futures pushing up OI. [Sell BTCβ¦
π¨WHY WE DIPPED AND WHY YOU SHOULD BTFD (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
Like we noted this weekend, institutions have been hedging their surging altcoin spot positions with shorts in the futures market.
When an institution opens a short, someone else takes the long, usually a leveraged trader. Flushes hit the side with more leverage.
Institutions hedging spot positions are 'the strong hands'. The leveraged side is, as expected, the long side. After today's crash the altcoin-BTC OI spread decreased by 20%, down to 23.86bn from 30bn 2 days ago.
Those opening longs with leverage because institutions and whales are accumulating spot will have their stops hunted.
Buy spot, don't touch leverage. That's all you need to do.
Like we noted this weekend, institutions have been hedging their surging altcoin spot positions with shorts in the futures market.
When an institution opens a short, someone else takes the long, usually a leveraged trader. Flushes hit the side with more leverage.
Institutions hedging spot positions are 'the strong hands'. The leveraged side is, as expected, the long side. After today's crash the altcoin-BTC OI spread decreased by 20%, down to 23.86bn from 30bn 2 days ago.
Those opening longs with leverage because institutions and whales are accumulating spot will have their stops hunted.
Buy spot, don't touch leverage. That's all you need to do.
π3π2π―2π2π€‘1π
1
π¨Discretionary (independent) investor equity exposure ticked up this week but they are still stuck at neutral with plenty of room to catch up.
Systematic strategy positioning ("Big Money") flipped discretionary investors in summer and has been rising ever since reaching the 92nd percentile today.
Crypto positioning mirrors equities: institutions are leading retail, as seen in ETF and DATCO inflows since summer, despite weak retail participation (low crypto app traffic).
[The pain trade is higher. Much higher. BTFD before institutions start pumping their bags!]
Systematic strategy positioning ("Big Money") flipped discretionary investors in summer and has been rising ever since reaching the 92nd percentile today.
Crypto positioning mirrors equities: institutions are leading retail, as seen in ETF and DATCO inflows since summer, despite weak retail participation (low crypto app traffic).
[The pain trade is higher. Much higher. BTFD before institutions start pumping their bags!]
π₯3π3π€‘1π1