Bull Case
π¨YOU ARE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH: DXY down, gold ATH, uncertainty index higher than during Covid, trade war escalating, short term inflation expectations UP, EMs imploding, China easing and dumping USTs to keep the Yuan afloat, EU easing, the Fed about to easeβ¦
π¨In 2016β2017, Ethereum formed a classic bear trap before soaring to new ATHs. Now in 2024β2025, the chart shows a very similar setup. [We told you at the pico bottom and we're telling you again now, BTFD!]
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Bull Case
π¨The MOVE index hasnβt set a new low since August 15, closing yesterday at 85.28. With money also flowing out of the long end, it looks increasingly likely that Jackson Hole marked the peak of the Fedβs dovish rhetoric. [At least 3 months of bull left fromβ¦
π¨The MOVE index has resumed making new lows closing Friday at 73.3, the lowest since January 2022.
Fed rhetoric is about to get even more dovish than at Jackson Hole.
[There is no end in sight for this bull, load up spot before everything explodes!]
Fed rhetoric is about to get even more dovish than at Jackson Hole.
[There is no end in sight for this bull, load up spot before everything explodes!]
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π¨In FT interview, SEC Chair Paul Atkins signals shift to warning over fines.
*Atkins FT interview: No more surprise crackdowns for technical violations. Companies will get warnings for technical slip-ups before any action.
[This will send risk appetite through the roof. Load up spot before everything moons!]
*Atkins FT interview: No more surprise crackdowns for technical violations. Companies will get warnings for technical slip-ups before any action.
[This will send risk appetite through the roof. Load up spot before everything moons!]
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Bull Case
π¨BULL BASE CASE UPDATE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Bitcoin has closed 100 days above $100K, supported by $16bn inflows into spot ETFs since May. Saturday the 200DMA reached $100K for the first time. Strategic ETH reserves by corporate entities haveβ¦
π¨BULL BASE CASE UPDATE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Following the latest batch of US data (NFP, CPI, jobless claims), the 2Y Treasury yield (red curve on the chart) has been falling sharply, increasing the gap with the rates set by the Fed (black curve).
Every time 2Y yields diverged from Fed's rates (red bars), the Fed triggered a rate-cutting cycle that further lowered actual market rates as well. These cycles trigger bull markets that end when the Fed starts hiking again.
The MOVE index also keeps making new lows, confirming the Fed is only going to get more dovish soon. Therefore there are no hikes in sight for now.
In August we updated our base case from a top for Oct-Nov 2025, to Q2 2026. Inflation denial and recessionary signals across bankruptcies, housing, and labor markets indicated the Fed was likely going to get more dovish.
One month later, our base case has been confirmed again by 2Y bond yields. We're expecting 9 months of bull left from here.
Load up spot before it's too late!
Every time 2Y yields diverged from Fed's rates (red bars), the Fed triggered a rate-cutting cycle that further lowered actual market rates as well. These cycles trigger bull markets that end when the Fed starts hiking again.
The MOVE index also keeps making new lows, confirming the Fed is only going to get more dovish soon. Therefore there are no hikes in sight for now.
In August we updated our base case from a top for Oct-Nov 2025, to Q2 2026. Inflation denial and recessionary signals across bankruptcies, housing, and labor markets indicated the Fed was likely going to get more dovish.
One month later, our base case has been confirmed again by 2Y bond yields. We're expecting 9 months of bull left from here.
Load up spot before it's too late!
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π¨$39.9T corporate treasury assets are starting to spill over into altcoins.
BTC & ETH DATs are already massive. Alt DATs is where the opportunity is at.
We're expecting a lot of new alt DAT announcements in the coming months.
[There will be a DAT for every alt coin, BTFD before Wall Street starts aping!]
BTC & ETH DATs are already massive. Alt DATs is where the opportunity is at.
We're expecting a lot of new alt DAT announcements in the coming months.
[There will be a DAT for every alt coin, BTFD before Wall Street starts aping!]
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Bull Case
π¨$39.9T corporate treasury assets are starting to spill over into altcoins. BTC & ETH DATs are already massive. Alt DATs is where the opportunity is at. We're expecting a lot of new alt DAT announcements in the coming months. [There will be a DAT forβ¦
π¨Standard Chartered report says many DATs are now falling below the critical mNAV level, making it difficult for them to acquire more assets. Only major players with cheap capital and solid strategies can survive. The rest are at risk of being crushed by consolidation.
[Foundation backed alt DATs for most coins in the top 50 are coming. Ignore the mNAV compression FUD and BTFD before Wall St starts aping!]
[Foundation backed alt DATs for most coins in the top 50 are coming. Ignore the mNAV compression FUD and BTFD before Wall St starts aping!]
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Bull Case
π¨BULL BASE CASE UPDATE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Following the latest batch of US data (NFP, CPI, jobless claims), the 2Y Treasury yield (red curve on the chart) has been falling sharply, increasing the gap with the rates set by the Fed (black curve).β¦
π¨Blackrock: We stay risk on as the Federal Reserve likely resumes cutting policy rates this week. A softening labor market gives the Fed space to cut, helping ease brewing political tensions from higher interest rates.
Blackrock knows the September FOMC meeting is not just about a rate cut, but marks the beginning of a new rate cutting cycle.
[$3tn are about to flood markets, BTFD before everything moons!]
Blackrock knows the September FOMC meeting is not just about a rate cut, but marks the beginning of a new rate cutting cycle.
[$3tn are about to flood markets, BTFD before everything moons!]
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π¨Bitwise expects an imminent βETPaloozaβ similar to the ETF boom following the 2019 ETF rule once the SEC signs off on the Generic Listing Standards for ETPs proposed by major exchanges.
Expected impact on the Crypto ETP Space:
*reduced time-to-market
*Increased number and variety of products beyond BTC and ETH
*increased accessibility for retail and institutions
[BTFD before Wall St starts aping!]
Expected impact on the Crypto ETP Space:
*reduced time-to-market
*Increased number and variety of products beyond BTC and ETH
*increased accessibility for retail and institutions
[BTFD before Wall St starts aping!]
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Bull Case
π¨Total funds borrowed for leveraged trades in retail margin accounts hit $1 trillion in June, breaking past the 2021 ATH. [Even higher in July since the short squeeze narrative started going turbo. With risk appetite through the roof, buy the crypto dip!]
π¨Total funds borrowed for leveraged trades in retail margin accounts has climbed another 5% since reaching $1tn in June
[This is mostly from the top 10% income bracket. We're still in the pre-retail phase!]
[This is mostly from the top 10% income bracket. We're still in the pre-retail phase!]
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Bull Case
π¨Tricolor Holdings files for bankruptcy in Texas. Tricolorβs bonds were rated AAA 2 months ago by Kroll Bond Rating Agency (July β25). Today they plunged par to 78Β’, with lower tranches to 12Β’. [The Fed will have to cut more than you think, BTFD before cryptoβ¦
π¨SOFR, the interest rate that dealers pay to borrow cash from each other overnight in the Treasury repo market, has spiked to 4.51%. This is 0.18% above IORB, the interest the Fed pays to the Banks on their Reserve Balances.
[A good reason for Powell to panic and deliver a 50bps cut tomorrow! BTFD!]
[A good reason for Powell to panic and deliver a 50bps cut tomorrow! BTFD!]
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