Bull Case
The direct correlation between repo spreads (which increase as real interest rates decrease) and stablecoin inflows. Stablecoins have seen over $100bn in inflows since Trump took office. Institutions have been in risk on since then.
🚨Bitcoin is currently experiencing its strongest upward pressure from 2-year real rates this cycle.
The chart above shows the rate of change in 2-year real rates (inverted). Green bars = real rates are exerting upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. [BTFD!]
The chart above shows the rate of change in 2-year real rates (inverted). Green bars = real rates are exerting upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. [BTFD!]
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Bull Case
BofA Forex survey: 🟢 LONG USD the highest conviction trade for 0% for a fourth month. 🟢 SHORT USD the highest conviction trade has risen to 37% (its highest level this year) from 26%. This is the kind of forex risk on extreme that triggers parabolic bull…
🚨DXY bottom confirmed. [Expect stablecoins to balloon even faster as the long USD trade picks up. BTFD!]
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Bull Case
The direct correlation between repo spreads (which increase as real interest rates decrease) and stablecoin inflows. Stablecoins have seen over $100bn in inflows since Trump took office. Institutions have been in risk on since then.
Both Consumer Discretionary vs. Staples (RSPD/RSPS) and High Beta vs. Low Volatility (SPHB/SPLV) are breaking out to new highs. [Risk on is spreading out, buy the crypto dip before it's too late!]
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Bull Case
🚨The MOVE index continues to gravitate lower. Inflation becomes a problem only when inflation expectations are high enough to affect the long end of the curve, which is when MOVE starts spiking higher. For as long as MOVE doesn't bottom, we're at least 2…
Today's report showed PCE inflation was up 2.6% over the 12 months ending in July, while Core PCE was up 2.9%.
[The Fed has lost all its credibility and that's bullish not bearish, BTFD!]
[The Fed has lost all its credibility and that's bullish not bearish, BTFD!]
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🚨SELL YOUR GOLD FOR BITCOIN HERE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
BTC is dumping not because of PCE, which came inline with expectations, but because of gold retesting its ATH. This is the 4th retest since April.
Our view remains that gold has topped, with Powell's Jackson Hole speech putting a cap on it. We see this move on the last working day of August as a classic bull trap before a major top. The big rotation into crypto seems poised to begin in September.
[Buy the crypto dip before it's too late!]
BTC is dumping not because of PCE, which came inline with expectations, but because of gold retesting its ATH. This is the 4th retest since April.
Our view remains that gold has topped, with Powell's Jackson Hole speech putting a cap on it. We see this move on the last working day of August as a classic bull trap before a major top. The big rotation into crypto seems poised to begin in September.
[Buy the crypto dip before it's too late!]
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Bull Case
🚨SELL YOUR GOLD FOR BITCOIN HERE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) BTC is dumping not because of PCE, which came inline with expectations, but because of gold retesting its ATH. This is the 4th retest since April. Our view remains that gold has topped…
🚨ICYMI: After market close on Friday, the US Court of Appeals ruled that most tariffs enacted by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are unlawful.
This ruling provides the fundamental catalyst for our bull trap scenario to materialize.
DOJ will appeal to SCOTUS, but the conservative Supreme Court recently curtailed federal agency powers in ways that could work against Trump here
*WaPo (1h ago): Some experts expect the high court to abstain from this particular case or ruling against Trump’s interests.
[Buy the crypto dip before it's too late]
This ruling provides the fundamental catalyst for our bull trap scenario to materialize.
DOJ will appeal to SCOTUS, but the conservative Supreme Court recently curtailed federal agency powers in ways that could work against Trump here
*WaPo (1h ago): Some experts expect the high court to abstain from this particular case or ruling against Trump’s interests.
[Buy the crypto dip before it's too late]
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Bull Case
🚨THE TRUE BULL HASN’T STARTED YET (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) We define capital utilization as the amount of outstanding loans divided by the total deposits across all defi lending protocols on a given date. Since 2020, capital utilization in DeFi lending…
🚨Daily yield payouts on yield bearing stablecoins have climbed to the highest point since November 2024 [Liquidity is heating up, BTFD!]
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Bull Case
The liquidity in Federal Reserve's $2.5T REPO cash sponge has been almost completely squeezed out. The balance has dropped by 99%, leaving only $22B. [WRESBAL ($3.3T) is the next liquidity sponge that will be wrung out by inflation denial, BTFD!]
🚨In the week to August 27, WRESBAL went down by almost $100B from 3,317B to 3,224B [As real rates go down with inflation, WRESBAL's $3,3T starts flooding the markets. BTFD!]
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Bull Case
🚨THE TRUE BULL HASN’T STARTED YET (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) We define capital utilization as the amount of outstanding loans divided by the total deposits across all defi lending protocols on a given date. Since 2020, capital utilization in DeFi lending…
🚨In August, DeFi liquidity utilization rate tapped 41% for the first time since 'Liberation Day' (the highest level seen in 2025) and is still trending higher. Onchain leverage is breaking out and risk appetite is reviving. Green pastures lie ahead for bulls. [BTFD before it's too late!]
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🚨NYC based attorney John Polonis: It will be difficult for the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn the rejection of Trump's tariffs at the appellate level.
*Trump tried to justify his imposition of tariffs under the IEEPA, the appellate court ruled 7-4 that the tariffs are illegal
*The IEEPA is an emergency law that was designed to impose economic sanctions in response to threats against the U.S. As the court noted, it makes no mention of tariffs
*The court was also skeptical that Trump can use 'national security' to bypass separation of powers and limits on executive power.
*It will be very hard for SCOTUS to overcome the constitutional arguments at the appellate level unless they're willing to further reveal the extent of they're willing to go to protect this President.
[If tariffs get smacked down by SCOTUS gold will dump hard. Buy the crypto dip before it's too late!]
*Trump tried to justify his imposition of tariffs under the IEEPA, the appellate court ruled 7-4 that the tariffs are illegal
*The IEEPA is an emergency law that was designed to impose economic sanctions in response to threats against the U.S. As the court noted, it makes no mention of tariffs
*The court was also skeptical that Trump can use 'national security' to bypass separation of powers and limits on executive power.
*It will be very hard for SCOTUS to overcome the constitutional arguments at the appellate level unless they're willing to further reveal the extent of they're willing to go to protect this President.
[If tariffs get smacked down by SCOTUS gold will dump hard. Buy the crypto dip before it's too late!]
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🚨US holiday spending set for steepest drop since pandemic. PwC, which polled about 4,000 consumers between June and July, said shoppers on average plan to spend about $1,552 per person, down 5.3% from last year. The last comparable decline was in 2020, when average spend fell 7.6% to $1,187.
[There is always a shitcoin for every budget. BTFD before retail starts aping!]
[There is always a shitcoin for every budget. BTFD before retail starts aping!]
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