Bull Case
🚨Spring pending home sales hit 13 year old low, for the third year in a row. Spring season is historically the top season. [Hawks will be on the back foot for a long time despite high inflation. Buy the crypto dip. The crypto as inflation hedge trade is still…
🚨The number of unsold completed new single-family homes sets a new post-2009 high. [Jet fuel incoming, BTFD before it's too late!]
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Bull Case
🚨BULL BASE CASE UPDATE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Bitcoin has closed 100 days above $100K, supported by $16bn inflows into spot ETFs since May. Saturday the 200DMA reached $100K for the first time. Strategic ETH reserves by corporate entities have…
BREAKING: GLASSNODE INDICATORS SUGGEST THE TOP IS NEAR (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
1. Long term BTC holders (LTH) take profits only when they believe they are near the final bullish phase. The fact that these sales (black area) are now comparable to previous cyclical tops indicates that many LTHs think we are in the final phase of the bull.
2. Near the top of a cycle, the % of BTC that was purchased at prices lower than the current ones (the percentage of BTC virtually in profit, yellow curve) stays above the red line for a certain number of days before the bull ends. We are currently at 273 days: a figure similar to that of previous cycle tops.
3. Based solely on price dynamics, the third indicator suggests that we are only 2–3 months away from the end of the bull trend for this cycle.
Our base case remains bullish for the next 9-12 months because Glassnode metrics don't take into account that this time LTHs have sold their coins to institutions, not retail.
Ignore Glassnode FUD and BTFD!
1. Long term BTC holders (LTH) take profits only when they believe they are near the final bullish phase. The fact that these sales (black area) are now comparable to previous cyclical tops indicates that many LTHs think we are in the final phase of the bull.
2. Near the top of a cycle, the % of BTC that was purchased at prices lower than the current ones (the percentage of BTC virtually in profit, yellow curve) stays above the red line for a certain number of days before the bull ends. We are currently at 273 days: a figure similar to that of previous cycle tops.
3. Based solely on price dynamics, the third indicator suggests that we are only 2–3 months away from the end of the bull trend for this cycle.
Our base case remains bullish for the next 9-12 months because Glassnode metrics don't take into account that this time LTHs have sold their coins to institutions, not retail.
Ignore Glassnode FUD and BTFD!
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Yardeni: The percentages of S&P 500 companies with positive three-month changes in forward revenues and forward earnings have increased significantly in recent weeks.
Goldman: Dollar weakness has provided a tailwind to large-cap revenues. On a constant currency basis, both real and nominal sales growth for the S&P 500 decelerated in 2Q 2025.
*Sales growth appears more at risk for mid- and small-cap companies, which enjoy less of a tailwind from dollar weakness
[This week’s personal spending m/m report should indicate that earnings optimism is driven more by inflation expectations than by consumer demand. Powell will cut, BTFD!]
Goldman: Dollar weakness has provided a tailwind to large-cap revenues. On a constant currency basis, both real and nominal sales growth for the S&P 500 decelerated in 2Q 2025.
*Sales growth appears more at risk for mid- and small-cap companies, which enjoy less of a tailwind from dollar weakness
[This week’s personal spending m/m report should indicate that earnings optimism is driven more by inflation expectations than by consumer demand. Powell will cut, BTFD!]
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Bull Case
🚨WHY THE NEXT TWO MONTHS FAVOR THE BULLS (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Last week UBS introduced a proprietary AI tracking system which assesses the policy tone of three major central banks and measures them on a hawkish/dovish scale. The UBS Fed sentiment…
🚨The MOVE index continues to gravitate lower.
Inflation becomes a problem only when inflation expectations are high enough to affect the long end of the curve, which is when MOVE starts spiking higher. For as long as MOVE doesn't bottom, we're at least 2 months away from a hawkish pivot. [This inflation is bullish, BTFD!]
Inflation becomes a problem only when inflation expectations are high enough to affect the long end of the curve, which is when MOVE starts spiking higher. For as long as MOVE doesn't bottom, we're at least 2 months away from a hawkish pivot. [This inflation is bullish, BTFD!]
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Bull Case
🚨GOLD IS ABOUT TO BREAK DOWN AND THAT'S BULLISH FOR CRYPTO (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) We called the gold top in April 2025 and we are not backing down. However, today markets are still uncertain. For example, according to John Doody of Stansberry…
Monthly gold chart [Gold is getting ready for a breakdown, which will accelerate big money's rotation into crypto. BTFD!]
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Bull Case
Bitcoin now represents 1.7% of the global money supply.
🚨In under two weeks, Bitcoin has captured an additional 0.3% of the global money supply, bringing its share to 2%. According to the TAM model, this implies a fair value of $128,808 per BTC.
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Empires rise and empires fall. If you aren't paying attention to what's happening in the privacy sector, you better start.
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Forwarded from Techleaks24 🇵🇸
The most corrupt actor in the privacy space today, who has been caught lying in a bug disclosure (the scientific equivalent of lying under oath), seems to have been activated by his masters in Project POSnero.
Like I explained in my post on August 12th, as more people are exposed to undeniable evidence that Monero is traceable/unfixable/obsolete, manipulating Monero’s market cap becomes exponentially more expensive. Without privacy, Monero has no utility, and with no utility miners just mine and dump.
So to keep the wheels of their honeypot scheme turning, they must centralize emissions ASAP and for this they need a POS XMR.
Now Monero’s transition into POS can be done in 2 ways:
1. A hard transition (like that of Eth) where POW is deactivated overnight.
2. A soft transition, where first an intermediary POS layer is introduced on top of the existing POW layer. And then at a later date the pow layer is removed completely.
The masters of Monero, those who sell Monero tracing services to the IRS and brainwash gullible newbies into believing that Monero is private, have aptly opted for the second, a soft transition.
To initiate it they have activated their little Pinocchio who has put forward a proposal to add a validator layer on top of POW “to mitigate selfish mining”.
Now monero miners must be (rightly so) wondering: ok then, what’s the point of POW if a bunch of Palantir controlled validators decide which blocks are final?
What they miss is that nobody cares about censoring Monero, because they already trace it. This validator layer is part of their POS transition strategy. It’s a temporary middle step to avoid having miners go squealing in the middle of a bull market that they have finally connected all the dots and Monero is a honeypot.
If you wanted proof that Chainalysis/Palantir pull the strings of Pinocchio, then this is it.
PS: Our lying psychopath is also often seen interacting with Derolytics, the guy who faked a deroproof and manipulated his explorer to make it look like there was an inflation bug exploit on Dero.
Birds of a feather flock together. 🐦
Like I explained in my post on August 12th, as more people are exposed to undeniable evidence that Monero is traceable/unfixable/obsolete, manipulating Monero’s market cap becomes exponentially more expensive. Without privacy, Monero has no utility, and with no utility miners just mine and dump.
So to keep the wheels of their honeypot scheme turning, they must centralize emissions ASAP and for this they need a POS XMR.
Now Monero’s transition into POS can be done in 2 ways:
1. A hard transition (like that of Eth) where POW is deactivated overnight.
2. A soft transition, where first an intermediary POS layer is introduced on top of the existing POW layer. And then at a later date the pow layer is removed completely.
The masters of Monero, those who sell Monero tracing services to the IRS and brainwash gullible newbies into believing that Monero is private, have aptly opted for the second, a soft transition.
To initiate it they have activated their little Pinocchio who has put forward a proposal to add a validator layer on top of POW “to mitigate selfish mining”.
Now monero miners must be (rightly so) wondering: ok then, what’s the point of POW if a bunch of Palantir controlled validators decide which blocks are final?
What they miss is that nobody cares about censoring Monero, because they already trace it. This validator layer is part of their POS transition strategy. It’s a temporary middle step to avoid having miners go squealing in the middle of a bull market that they have finally connected all the dots and Monero is a honeypot.
If you wanted proof that Chainalysis/Palantir pull the strings of Pinocchio, then this is it.
PS: Our lying psychopath is also often seen interacting with Derolytics, the guy who faked a deroproof and manipulated his explorer to make it look like there was an inflation bug exploit on Dero.
Birds of a feather flock together. 🐦
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Bull Case
The direct correlation between repo spreads (which increase as real interest rates decrease) and stablecoin inflows. Stablecoins have seen over $100bn in inflows since Trump took office. Institutions have been in risk on since then.
🚨Bitcoin is currently experiencing its strongest upward pressure from 2-year real rates this cycle.
The chart above shows the rate of change in 2-year real rates (inverted). Green bars = real rates are exerting upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. [BTFD!]
The chart above shows the rate of change in 2-year real rates (inverted). Green bars = real rates are exerting upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. [BTFD!]
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