🚨Goldman Sachs: We do not expect Powell to decisively signal a September cut, but the speech should make it clear to markets that he is likely to support one.
We expect Powell to modify his statement from the July FOMC press conference that the FOMC is "well positioned" to wait for more information. Instead, he might note that the FOMC is well positioned to address risks to both sides of its mandate but emphasize that downside risks to the labor market have grown following the July employment report, while reiterating that tariffs are likely to have only a one-time effect on the price level.
We expect Powell to modify his statement from the July FOMC press conference that the FOMC is "well positioned" to wait for more information. Instead, he might note that the FOMC is well positioned to address risks to both sides of its mandate but emphasize that downside risks to the labor market have grown following the July employment report, while reiterating that tariffs are likely to have only a one-time effect on the price level.
🔥2🍾2💅2
🚨For more context and in-depth market discussions about everything you see on this page come join @monerouncensoredchat. Spammers/scammers will be kicked
🤣6😁1
Bull Case
Google Trends shows ATH search interest in "gold" and "GLD", a classic signal of FOMO and top. Now capital starts rotating into BTC and crypto. - Bull Case insider
🚨GOLD IS ABOUT TO BREAK DOWN AND THAT'S BULLISH FOR CRYPTO (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) We called the gold top in April 2025 and we are not backing down.
However, today markets are still uncertain. For example, according to John Doody of Stansberry Research gold hasn't topped and is forming an ascending triangle that is about to break out.
A gold continuation higher would be bearish for crypto short term, because it would draw capital back into gold. A break down that finally confirms the top would be immensely bullish as it would accelerate big money's rotation into crypto.
There is still a lot of big money in gold waiting for a confirmation signal.
Our view is that Powell's speech last week officially put a cap on Gold's upside. The Fed has abandoned the 2020 framework, which means any offshoots in inflation won't be tolerated as temporary.
An imminent gold top confirmation is also supported by CTA flows and easing geopolitical risks.
BTFD and chill. Crypto is about to explode!
However, today markets are still uncertain. For example, according to John Doody of Stansberry Research gold hasn't topped and is forming an ascending triangle that is about to break out.
A gold continuation higher would be bearish for crypto short term, because it would draw capital back into gold. A break down that finally confirms the top would be immensely bullish as it would accelerate big money's rotation into crypto.
There is still a lot of big money in gold waiting for a confirmation signal.
Our view is that Powell's speech last week officially put a cap on Gold's upside. The Fed has abandoned the 2020 framework, which means any offshoots in inflation won't be tolerated as temporary.
An imminent gold top confirmation is also supported by CTA flows and easing geopolitical risks.
BTFD and chill. Crypto is about to explode!
🔥4🤯1🐳1🗿1
Bull Case
🚨Spring pending home sales hit 13 year old low, for the third year in a row. Spring season is historically the top season. [Hawks will be on the back foot for a long time despite high inflation. Buy the crypto dip. The crypto as inflation hedge trade is still…
🚨The number of unsold completed new single-family homes sets a new post-2009 high. [Jet fuel incoming, BTFD before it's too late!]
💩2👌1🍾1💅1
Bull Case
🚨BULL BASE CASE UPDATE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Bitcoin has closed 100 days above $100K, supported by $16bn inflows into spot ETFs since May. Saturday the 200DMA reached $100K for the first time. Strategic ETH reserves by corporate entities have…
BREAKING: GLASSNODE INDICATORS SUGGEST THE TOP IS NEAR (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
1. Long term BTC holders (LTH) take profits only when they believe they are near the final bullish phase. The fact that these sales (black area) are now comparable to previous cyclical tops indicates that many LTHs think we are in the final phase of the bull.
2. Near the top of a cycle, the % of BTC that was purchased at prices lower than the current ones (the percentage of BTC virtually in profit, yellow curve) stays above the red line for a certain number of days before the bull ends. We are currently at 273 days: a figure similar to that of previous cycle tops.
3. Based solely on price dynamics, the third indicator suggests that we are only 2–3 months away from the end of the bull trend for this cycle.
Our base case remains bullish for the next 9-12 months because Glassnode metrics don't take into account that this time LTHs have sold their coins to institutions, not retail.
Ignore Glassnode FUD and BTFD!
1. Long term BTC holders (LTH) take profits only when they believe they are near the final bullish phase. The fact that these sales (black area) are now comparable to previous cyclical tops indicates that many LTHs think we are in the final phase of the bull.
2. Near the top of a cycle, the % of BTC that was purchased at prices lower than the current ones (the percentage of BTC virtually in profit, yellow curve) stays above the red line for a certain number of days before the bull ends. We are currently at 273 days: a figure similar to that of previous cycle tops.
3. Based solely on price dynamics, the third indicator suggests that we are only 2–3 months away from the end of the bull trend for this cycle.
Our base case remains bullish for the next 9-12 months because Glassnode metrics don't take into account that this time LTHs have sold their coins to institutions, not retail.
Ignore Glassnode FUD and BTFD!
🤣6😁2🐳2
Yardeni: The percentages of S&P 500 companies with positive three-month changes in forward revenues and forward earnings have increased significantly in recent weeks.
Goldman: Dollar weakness has provided a tailwind to large-cap revenues. On a constant currency basis, both real and nominal sales growth for the S&P 500 decelerated in 2Q 2025.
*Sales growth appears more at risk for mid- and small-cap companies, which enjoy less of a tailwind from dollar weakness
[This week’s personal spending m/m report should indicate that earnings optimism is driven more by inflation expectations than by consumer demand. Powell will cut, BTFD!]
Goldman: Dollar weakness has provided a tailwind to large-cap revenues. On a constant currency basis, both real and nominal sales growth for the S&P 500 decelerated in 2Q 2025.
*Sales growth appears more at risk for mid- and small-cap companies, which enjoy less of a tailwind from dollar weakness
[This week’s personal spending m/m report should indicate that earnings optimism is driven more by inflation expectations than by consumer demand. Powell will cut, BTFD!]
💯2🤯1
Bull Case
🚨WHY THE NEXT TWO MONTHS FAVOR THE BULLS (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Last week UBS introduced a proprietary AI tracking system which assesses the policy tone of three major central banks and measures them on a hawkish/dovish scale. The UBS Fed sentiment…
🚨The MOVE index continues to gravitate lower.
Inflation becomes a problem only when inflation expectations are high enough to affect the long end of the curve, which is when MOVE starts spiking higher. For as long as MOVE doesn't bottom, we're at least 2 months away from a hawkish pivot. [This inflation is bullish, BTFD!]
Inflation becomes a problem only when inflation expectations are high enough to affect the long end of the curve, which is when MOVE starts spiking higher. For as long as MOVE doesn't bottom, we're at least 2 months away from a hawkish pivot. [This inflation is bullish, BTFD!]
👍2👌2😈2
Bull Case
🚨GOLD IS ABOUT TO BREAK DOWN AND THAT'S BULLISH FOR CRYPTO (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) We called the gold top in April 2025 and we are not backing down. However, today markets are still uncertain. For example, according to John Doody of Stansberry…
Monthly gold chart [Gold is getting ready for a breakdown, which will accelerate big money's rotation into crypto. BTFD!]
🤣5😁2