Bull Case
🚨Today's job report looks like we're in a recession. *May Nonfarm Payrolls revised from 144.0K to 19.0K (-86% correction) *June revised from 147K to 14K (-85% correction) *July numbers missed estimates by 30% (70K from 106K). *The 6m change in the unemployment…
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🚨Fed minutes: a majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks, while several participants viewed the two risks as roughly balanced, and a couple of participants considered downside risk to employment the more salient risk.
These Fed minutes were a couple of days before the huge deterioration in the labor market report and major revisions downward for the prior two months.
[Whatever you do, DO NOT capitulate into bull market dips. BTFD!]
These Fed minutes were a couple of days before the huge deterioration in the labor market report and major revisions downward for the prior two months.
[Whatever you do, DO NOT capitulate into bull market dips. BTFD!]
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Bull Case
🚨BULL BASE CASE UPDATE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Bitcoin has closed 100 days above $100K, supported by $16bn inflows into spot ETFs since May. Saturday the 200DMA reached $100K for the first time. Strategic ETH reserves by corporate entities have…
🚨Wealthy Asian family offices are increasing crypto exposure, citing diversification benefits and favourable regulation after the US GENIUS Act.
*Last year, they started to dip their feet into bitcoin ETFs… now they have begun to learn the difference of holding a token directly -Zann Kwan of Revo Digital Family Office
*Investors are increasingly treating bitcoin as a "portfolio diversifier" to hedge macro uncertainties -Giselle Lai of Fidelity international
*Many second- and third-generation individuals of family offices are starting to learn about and participate in virtual currencies -Zu Jie of UBS China
*Last year, they started to dip their feet into bitcoin ETFs… now they have begun to learn the difference of holding a token directly -Zann Kwan of Revo Digital Family Office
*Investors are increasingly treating bitcoin as a "portfolio diversifier" to hedge macro uncertainties -Giselle Lai of Fidelity international
*Many second- and third-generation individuals of family offices are starting to learn about and participate in virtual currencies -Zu Jie of UBS China
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🚨US PMI showed the fastest activity growth this year, with the index rising to 55.4 in August (Jul: 55.1). It also printed stronger output prices, which are costs that will passed to consumers (a leading indicator for CPI).
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Bitcoin/Ethereum Spot ETF Flows: 21 August 2025
🔴 Bitcoin ETFs: $194.4M net outflows
🟢 Ethereum ETFs: $287.6M net inflows
[Let the rotation into altcoins continue, BTFD!]
🔴 Bitcoin ETFs: $194.4M net outflows
🟢 Ethereum ETFs: $287.6M net inflows
[Let the rotation into altcoins continue, BTFD!]
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🚨Goldman Sachs: We do not expect Powell to decisively signal a September cut, but the speech should make it clear to markets that he is likely to support one.
We expect Powell to modify his statement from the July FOMC press conference that the FOMC is "well positioned" to wait for more information. Instead, he might note that the FOMC is well positioned to address risks to both sides of its mandate but emphasize that downside risks to the labor market have grown following the July employment report, while reiterating that tariffs are likely to have only a one-time effect on the price level.
We expect Powell to modify his statement from the July FOMC press conference that the FOMC is "well positioned" to wait for more information. Instead, he might note that the FOMC is well positioned to address risks to both sides of its mandate but emphasize that downside risks to the labor market have grown following the July employment report, while reiterating that tariffs are likely to have only a one-time effect on the price level.
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🚨For more context and in-depth market discussions about everything you see on this page come join @monerouncensoredchat. Spammers/scammers will be kicked
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Bull Case
Google Trends shows ATH search interest in "gold" and "GLD", a classic signal of FOMO and top. Now capital starts rotating into BTC and crypto. - Bull Case insider
🚨GOLD IS ABOUT TO BREAK DOWN AND THAT'S BULLISH FOR CRYPTO (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) We called the gold top in April 2025 and we are not backing down.
However, today markets are still uncertain. For example, according to John Doody of Stansberry Research gold hasn't topped and is forming an ascending triangle that is about to break out.
A gold continuation higher would be bearish for crypto short term, because it would draw capital back into gold. A break down that finally confirms the top would be immensely bullish as it would accelerate big money's rotation into crypto.
There is still a lot of big money in gold waiting for a confirmation signal.
Our view is that Powell's speech last week officially put a cap on Gold's upside. The Fed has abandoned the 2020 framework, which means any offshoots in inflation won't be tolerated as temporary.
An imminent gold top confirmation is also supported by CTA flows and easing geopolitical risks.
BTFD and chill. Crypto is about to explode!
However, today markets are still uncertain. For example, according to John Doody of Stansberry Research gold hasn't topped and is forming an ascending triangle that is about to break out.
A gold continuation higher would be bearish for crypto short term, because it would draw capital back into gold. A break down that finally confirms the top would be immensely bullish as it would accelerate big money's rotation into crypto.
There is still a lot of big money in gold waiting for a confirmation signal.
Our view is that Powell's speech last week officially put a cap on Gold's upside. The Fed has abandoned the 2020 framework, which means any offshoots in inflation won't be tolerated as temporary.
An imminent gold top confirmation is also supported by CTA flows and easing geopolitical risks.
BTFD and chill. Crypto is about to explode!
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Bull Case
🚨Spring pending home sales hit 13 year old low, for the third year in a row. Spring season is historically the top season. [Hawks will be on the back foot for a long time despite high inflation. Buy the crypto dip. The crypto as inflation hedge trade is still…
🚨The number of unsold completed new single-family homes sets a new post-2009 high. [Jet fuel incoming, BTFD before it's too late!]
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Bull Case
🚨BULL BASE CASE UPDATE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Bitcoin has closed 100 days above $100K, supported by $16bn inflows into spot ETFs since May. Saturday the 200DMA reached $100K for the first time. Strategic ETH reserves by corporate entities have…
BREAKING: GLASSNODE INDICATORS SUGGEST THE TOP IS NEAR (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
1. Long term BTC holders (LTH) take profits only when they believe they are near the final bullish phase. The fact that these sales (black area) are now comparable to previous cyclical tops indicates that many LTHs think we are in the final phase of the bull.
2. Near the top of a cycle, the % of BTC that was purchased at prices lower than the current ones (the percentage of BTC virtually in profit, yellow curve) stays above the red line for a certain number of days before the bull ends. We are currently at 273 days: a figure similar to that of previous cycle tops.
3. Based solely on price dynamics, the third indicator suggests that we are only 2–3 months away from the end of the bull trend for this cycle.
Our base case remains bullish for the next 9-12 months because Glassnode metrics don't take into account that this time LTHs have sold their coins to institutions, not retail.
Ignore Glassnode FUD and BTFD!
1. Long term BTC holders (LTH) take profits only when they believe they are near the final bullish phase. The fact that these sales (black area) are now comparable to previous cyclical tops indicates that many LTHs think we are in the final phase of the bull.
2. Near the top of a cycle, the % of BTC that was purchased at prices lower than the current ones (the percentage of BTC virtually in profit, yellow curve) stays above the red line for a certain number of days before the bull ends. We are currently at 273 days: a figure similar to that of previous cycle tops.
3. Based solely on price dynamics, the third indicator suggests that we are only 2–3 months away from the end of the bull trend for this cycle.
Our base case remains bullish for the next 9-12 months because Glassnode metrics don't take into account that this time LTHs have sold their coins to institutions, not retail.
Ignore Glassnode FUD and BTFD!
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