🚨This week DeFi lending outflows surged by $1.93bn in a single day, the largest increase since October 2021 when utilization rates, a proxy for risk appetite, hovered near the cycle peak at 50%.
By contrast, today utilization remains flat at around 40%, the same level observed in early 2021 at the very start of the bull market.
Plenty of runway left for bulls. [BTFD!]
By contrast, today utilization remains flat at around 40%, the same level observed in early 2021 at the very start of the bull market.
Plenty of runway left for bulls. [BTFD!]
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Bull Case
The MOVE index continues to make new lows, closing yesterday at 77.31, its lowest since December 2021. Since 2020, a bottom in the MOVE index has preceded hawkish pivots in Fed rhetoric by at least two months. With no sign of a bottom yet, the Fed will only…
WHY LAST WEEK'S PPI DRIVEN CORRECTION IS NOISE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) The MOVE index closed last week at 76.66, its lowest since January 2022 (despite a hot PPI). This shows inflation is far from the levels where it could trigger a hawkish rhetoric pivot in the Fed.
We started tracking the MOVE index on July 12 (85.48) over concerns that the Fed may react hawkishly to emerging tariff inflation. Based on the proprietary UBS Fed sentiment score, we found the MOVE index has led hawkish pivots in Fed rhetoric by 1-2 months since 2020.
Starting from this observation, we noted that MOVE suggests the Fed is about to get more dovish, not hawkish. In line with MOVE expectations, the FOMC statement on July 30 came in dovish.
The lowest weekly close since 2021 once again points toward a more dovish Fed ahead. For as long as the MOVE index doesn't bottom, there is little reason to worry about a rise in hawkish rhetoric. [BTFD!]
We started tracking the MOVE index on July 12 (85.48) over concerns that the Fed may react hawkishly to emerging tariff inflation. Based on the proprietary UBS Fed sentiment score, we found the MOVE index has led hawkish pivots in Fed rhetoric by 1-2 months since 2020.
Starting from this observation, we noted that MOVE suggests the Fed is about to get more dovish, not hawkish. In line with MOVE expectations, the FOMC statement on July 30 came in dovish.
The lowest weekly close since 2021 once again points toward a more dovish Fed ahead. For as long as the MOVE index doesn't bottom, there is little reason to worry about a rise in hawkish rhetoric. [BTFD!]
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🚨BULL BASE CASE UPDATE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Bitcoin has closed 100 days above $100K, supported by $16bn inflows into spot ETFs since May. Saturday the 200DMA reached $100K for the first time.
Strategic ETH reserves by corporate entities have added more than 3M ETH to their treasuries (over 80% of which added since July). Eth's MVRV has moved above 2. In previous bulls Eth's MVRV always spent at least 1 year above 2.
BTC.d's break of the 50 weekly MA was confirmed in last week's close.
These important structural changes have been driven by institutional activity and the inflation hedge trade.
Smart money has been slowly moving down the risk curve but retail activity, as shown by the Coinbase Appstore rank, remains muted.
We believe in the next few months (Q425-Q126) markets will stay anchored in the pre-retail phase, defined by dev activity, new listings & institutional adoption.
We expect cycle peak in early 2026 (Q1-Q2).
Bet moar and BTFD!
Strategic ETH reserves by corporate entities have added more than 3M ETH to their treasuries (over 80% of which added since July). Eth's MVRV has moved above 2. In previous bulls Eth's MVRV always spent at least 1 year above 2.
BTC.d's break of the 50 weekly MA was confirmed in last week's close.
These important structural changes have been driven by institutional activity and the inflation hedge trade.
Smart money has been slowly moving down the risk curve but retail activity, as shown by the Coinbase Appstore rank, remains muted.
We believe in the next few months (Q425-Q126) markets will stay anchored in the pre-retail phase, defined by dev activity, new listings & institutional adoption.
We expect cycle peak in early 2026 (Q1-Q2).
Bet moar and BTFD!
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Bernstein analysts: We expect a long, exhausting crypto bull market, continuing the surge into 2026 and potentially peaking in 2027. [BTFD!]
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Bull Case
The inflation hedge signal (pictured in our post from 23 July) should trigger next week when June's core PCE officially crosses over the Financial Conditions Index (assuming projections are correct). Because Trump has successfully cornered the Fed, supported…
Apollo Sløk: The situation today is surprisingly similar to the IT bubble in the 1990s. [We're nowhere close the end of this bull, BTFD!]
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Bull Case
🚨Important divergence between 1Y inflation swap and headline CPI YoY. If tomorrow's CPI print comes in soft, that's jet fuel for the bulls. [Crypto will pump regardless, BTFD!]
🚨One month later, the divergence between 1Y inflation swaps (3.31%) and CPI (2.7%) remains. [The inflation hedge trade isn't going away any time soon, BTFD!]
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Bull Case
ICYMI: 🟢🟢July 29 - Mill City Ventures III, Ltd. (MCVT) announced the sale of 83,025,830 shares of common stock at $5.42 per share to acquire $450M worth of SUI 🟢🟢July 28 - CEA Industries Inc. announced it's selling $500M worth of stock to buy BNB, with an…
🚨Stocks are confirming a local top and rotation into crypto is about to get more forceful. Many alts are already starting to lead against BTC as liquidity moves down the risk curve. BTFD!
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Bull Case
ICYMI: 🟢🟢July 29 - Mill City Ventures III, Ltd. (MCVT) announced the sale of 83,025,830 shares of common stock at $5.42 per share to acquire $450M worth of SUI 🟢🟢July 28 - CEA Industries Inc. announced it's selling $500M worth of stock to buy BNB, with an…
🚨Since Liberation Day, Momentum has outperformed Value. The gap is closing in August, which confirms that hot liquidity is leaving equities. [Risk-on capital is rotating into crypto, buy the crypto dip before it's too late!]
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Bull Case
WHY NO CUT IN SEPTEMBER IS BULLISH THANKS TO FED INDEPENDENCE RISK (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Truflation, TIPS, Core CPI have been ticking higher which means we don't have to wait for September, the rate cut is happening as we speak (real rates are…
🚨Trump calls for Dem appointed Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign after Pulte officially refers her for mortgage fraud. [Bullish crypto, BTFD!]
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Bull Case
🚨Today's job report looks like we're in a recession. *May Nonfarm Payrolls revised from 144.0K to 19.0K (-86% correction) *June revised from 147K to 14K (-85% correction) *July numbers missed estimates by 30% (70K from 106K). *The 6m change in the unemployment…
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🚨Fed minutes: a majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks, while several participants viewed the two risks as roughly balanced, and a couple of participants considered downside risk to employment the more salient risk.
These Fed minutes were a couple of days before the huge deterioration in the labor market report and major revisions downward for the prior two months.
[Whatever you do, DO NOT capitulate into bull market dips. BTFD!]
These Fed minutes were a couple of days before the huge deterioration in the labor market report and major revisions downward for the prior two months.
[Whatever you do, DO NOT capitulate into bull market dips. BTFD!]
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Bull Case
🚨BULL BASE CASE UPDATE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Bitcoin has closed 100 days above $100K, supported by $16bn inflows into spot ETFs since May. Saturday the 200DMA reached $100K for the first time. Strategic ETH reserves by corporate entities have…
🚨Wealthy Asian family offices are increasing crypto exposure, citing diversification benefits and favourable regulation after the US GENIUS Act.
*Last year, they started to dip their feet into bitcoin ETFs… now they have begun to learn the difference of holding a token directly -Zann Kwan of Revo Digital Family Office
*Investors are increasingly treating bitcoin as a "portfolio diversifier" to hedge macro uncertainties -Giselle Lai of Fidelity international
*Many second- and third-generation individuals of family offices are starting to learn about and participate in virtual currencies -Zu Jie of UBS China
*Last year, they started to dip their feet into bitcoin ETFs… now they have begun to learn the difference of holding a token directly -Zann Kwan of Revo Digital Family Office
*Investors are increasingly treating bitcoin as a "portfolio diversifier" to hedge macro uncertainties -Giselle Lai of Fidelity international
*Many second- and third-generation individuals of family offices are starting to learn about and participate in virtual currencies -Zu Jie of UBS China
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🚨US PMI showed the fastest activity growth this year, with the index rising to 55.4 in August (Jul: 55.1). It also printed stronger output prices, which are costs that will passed to consumers (a leading indicator for CPI).
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