🚨JPM: We are tactically bullish.
*The key bull case risk is CPI printing hawkishly.
*While inflation is moving higher we have not yet seen evidence of an inflation shock.
*The market is likely to remain unbothered until we get to a level that would make a rate hike a credible threat. That levels may be closer to 4.0% for Core YoY (vs 3-3.1% forecast for July) unless the Fed views that as transitory as well.
[The Fed will only get more dovish from here and won't hike even with 4% core, which will probably get dismissed as transitory tariff inflation. BTFD before it's too late!]
*The key bull case risk is CPI printing hawkishly.
*While inflation is moving higher we have not yet seen evidence of an inflation shock.
*The market is likely to remain unbothered until we get to a level that would make a rate hike a credible threat. That levels may be closer to 4.0% for Core YoY (vs 3-3.1% forecast for July) unless the Fed views that as transitory as well.
[The Fed will only get more dovish from here and won't hike even with 4% core, which will probably get dismissed as transitory tariff inflation. BTFD before it's too late!]
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Bitcoin/Ethereum Spot ETF Flows: 11 August 2025
🟢Bitcoin ETFs: $178.1M net outflows
🟢🟢Ethereum ETFs: $1.01B net inflows
[Btc.d has topped and the rotation is not even that slow anymore]
🟢Bitcoin ETFs: $178.1M net outflows
🟢🟢Ethereum ETFs: $1.01B net inflows
[Btc.d has topped and the rotation is not even that slow anymore]
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🚨THE TRUE BULL HASN’T STARTED YET (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
We define capital utilization as the amount of outstanding loans divided by the total deposits across all defi lending protocols on a given date. Since 2020, capital utilization in DeFi lending has followed an ascending trendline.
In a true bull market, as euphoria fuels leverage, capital utilization rises. This happened in 2021, when utilization climbed steadily from 40% to 50% over the course of the year.
As of 13 August, utilization remains flat at around 40%, sitting directly on the long term ascending trendline.
This confirms our base case that we are still in the very early stages of a bull market that should last another 9–12 months from the moment capital utilization starts the climb toward the 50-60% range.
We define capital utilization as the amount of outstanding loans divided by the total deposits across all defi lending protocols on a given date. Since 2020, capital utilization in DeFi lending has followed an ascending trendline.
In a true bull market, as euphoria fuels leverage, capital utilization rises. This happened in 2021, when utilization climbed steadily from 40% to 50% over the course of the year.
As of 13 August, utilization remains flat at around 40%, sitting directly on the long term ascending trendline.
This confirms our base case that we are still in the very early stages of a bull market that should last another 9–12 months from the moment capital utilization starts the climb toward the 50-60% range.
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Forwarded from Techleaks24 🇵🇸
🚨Dero's official binaries have been updated to release 14.2 to remove randomness reuse from all wallets.
Since the fix was allowed to be pushed in the official binaries, this strongly indicates that Dero's bulletproofs are now deemed by Captain to be battle tested & safe. This is my interpretation, Captain himself has never directly commented on randomness reuse.
Dero's rocket bulletproofs are not documented in literature & were introduced for the first time on Dero in 2022. They are created for homomorphic encryption, account model and smart contracts making them the most advanced BPs in crypto today. HE & account model are key features that eliminate single use outputs. This means Dero is immune to all UTXO & key image heuristics that compromised XMR & all UTXO privacy chains.
With this update Dero is not just the only non chainanalyzable privacy chain out there, but also officially battle tested and audited by the entire world that by using randomness reuse could independently verify its transactions.
Since the fix was allowed to be pushed in the official binaries, this strongly indicates that Dero's bulletproofs are now deemed by Captain to be battle tested & safe. This is my interpretation, Captain himself has never directly commented on randomness reuse.
Dero's rocket bulletproofs are not documented in literature & were introduced for the first time on Dero in 2022. They are created for homomorphic encryption, account model and smart contracts making them the most advanced BPs in crypto today. HE & account model are key features that eliminate single use outputs. This means Dero is immune to all UTXO & key image heuristics that compromised XMR & all UTXO privacy chains.
With this update Dero is not just the only non chainanalyzable privacy chain out there, but also officially battle tested and audited by the entire world that by using randomness reuse could independently verify its transactions.
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Bull Case
🚨The MOVE Index continues to make new lows closing July at 79,85. Reversals in this index have historically served as a reliable signal of shifts in Federal Reserve rhetoric. Its current direction signals that despite inflation, the Fed will get even more…
The MOVE index continues to make new lows, closing yesterday at 77.31, its lowest since December 2021. Since 2020, a bottom in the MOVE index has preceded hawkish pivots in Fed rhetoric by at least two months. With no sign of a bottom yet, the Fed will only get more dovish from here. [Rate cuts with high inflation will send crypto turbo, BTFD!]
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Bull Case
WHY NO CUT IN SEPTEMBER IS BULLISH THANKS TO FED INDEPENDENCE RISK (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Truflation, TIPS, Core CPI have been ticking higher which means we don't have to wait for September, the rate cut is happening as we speak (real rates are…
Yardeni: The hotter than expected PPI showed inflation is sticky and the economy is resilient. Our contrarian view for "none-and-done in 2025" gets stronger.
For the Fed the PPI is an indicator that inflation could be sticky and not tariff induced because the PPI excludes imports. Yet, even Yardeni's contrarian case for none-and-done in 2025 is still ultra bullish for crypto because higher inflation will bring down real rates as long as the Fed doesn't hike. See our post from July 22 if you missed it. [Ignore macro FUD and BTFD!]
For the Fed the PPI is an indicator that inflation could be sticky and not tariff induced because the PPI excludes imports. Yet, even Yardeni's contrarian case for none-and-done in 2025 is still ultra bullish for crypto because higher inflation will bring down real rates as long as the Fed doesn't hike. See our post from July 22 if you missed it. [Ignore macro FUD and BTFD!]
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Bull Case
Total stablecoin market cap: $265bn [+10bn in 2 weeks]
🚨New Defillama total stablecoin market cap ATH: $273bn [+8bn in 3 weeks. BTFD!]
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🚨In Q1 2025, global banks' cross-border lending to non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) jumped $678bn, the largest ever. $585bn (85%) came from banks based in the US, UK, and France.
Looks like US banks saw real rates coming down with tariff inflation and inflation denial. [The rate cuts you are waiting for have already happened. BTFD!]
Looks like US banks saw real rates coming down with tariff inflation and inflation denial. [The rate cuts you are waiting for have already happened. BTFD!]
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🚨This week DeFi lending outflows surged by $1.93bn in a single day, the largest increase since October 2021 when utilization rates, a proxy for risk appetite, hovered near the cycle peak at 50%.
By contrast, today utilization remains flat at around 40%, the same level observed in early 2021 at the very start of the bull market.
Plenty of runway left for bulls. [BTFD!]
By contrast, today utilization remains flat at around 40%, the same level observed in early 2021 at the very start of the bull market.
Plenty of runway left for bulls. [BTFD!]
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Bull Case
The MOVE index continues to make new lows, closing yesterday at 77.31, its lowest since December 2021. Since 2020, a bottom in the MOVE index has preceded hawkish pivots in Fed rhetoric by at least two months. With no sign of a bottom yet, the Fed will only…
WHY LAST WEEK'S PPI DRIVEN CORRECTION IS NOISE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) The MOVE index closed last week at 76.66, its lowest since January 2022 (despite a hot PPI). This shows inflation is far from the levels where it could trigger a hawkish rhetoric pivot in the Fed.
We started tracking the MOVE index on July 12 (85.48) over concerns that the Fed may react hawkishly to emerging tariff inflation. Based on the proprietary UBS Fed sentiment score, we found the MOVE index has led hawkish pivots in Fed rhetoric by 1-2 months since 2020.
Starting from this observation, we noted that MOVE suggests the Fed is about to get more dovish, not hawkish. In line with MOVE expectations, the FOMC statement on July 30 came in dovish.
The lowest weekly close since 2021 once again points toward a more dovish Fed ahead. For as long as the MOVE index doesn't bottom, there is little reason to worry about a rise in hawkish rhetoric. [BTFD!]
We started tracking the MOVE index on July 12 (85.48) over concerns that the Fed may react hawkishly to emerging tariff inflation. Based on the proprietary UBS Fed sentiment score, we found the MOVE index has led hawkish pivots in Fed rhetoric by 1-2 months since 2020.
Starting from this observation, we noted that MOVE suggests the Fed is about to get more dovish, not hawkish. In line with MOVE expectations, the FOMC statement on July 30 came in dovish.
The lowest weekly close since 2021 once again points toward a more dovish Fed ahead. For as long as the MOVE index doesn't bottom, there is little reason to worry about a rise in hawkish rhetoric. [BTFD!]
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🚨BULL BASE CASE UPDATE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Bitcoin has closed 100 days above $100K, supported by $16bn inflows into spot ETFs since May. Saturday the 200DMA reached $100K for the first time.
Strategic ETH reserves by corporate entities have added more than 3M ETH to their treasuries (over 80% of which added since July). Eth's MVRV has moved above 2. In previous bulls Eth's MVRV always spent at least 1 year above 2.
BTC.d's break of the 50 weekly MA was confirmed in last week's close.
These important structural changes have been driven by institutional activity and the inflation hedge trade.
Smart money has been slowly moving down the risk curve but retail activity, as shown by the Coinbase Appstore rank, remains muted.
We believe in the next few months (Q425-Q126) markets will stay anchored in the pre-retail phase, defined by dev activity, new listings & institutional adoption.
We expect cycle peak in early 2026 (Q1-Q2).
Bet moar and BTFD!
Strategic ETH reserves by corporate entities have added more than 3M ETH to their treasuries (over 80% of which added since July). Eth's MVRV has moved above 2. In previous bulls Eth's MVRV always spent at least 1 year above 2.
BTC.d's break of the 50 weekly MA was confirmed in last week's close.
These important structural changes have been driven by institutional activity and the inflation hedge trade.
Smart money has been slowly moving down the risk curve but retail activity, as shown by the Coinbase Appstore rank, remains muted.
We believe in the next few months (Q425-Q126) markets will stay anchored in the pre-retail phase, defined by dev activity, new listings & institutional adoption.
We expect cycle peak in early 2026 (Q1-Q2).
Bet moar and BTFD!
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