🚨Morgan Stanley: We're bullish on a 6-12 month horizon.

*Tariff induced inflation should subside later this year paving the way to more cuts.

*Should CPI come in soft this week it should trigger a more durable rotation into small caps

[This late cycle bull will last for as long as the Fed doesn't hike, BTFD before it's too late!]

🚨JPM: We are tactically bullish.

*The key bull case risk is CPI printing hawkishly.

*While inflation is moving higher we have not yet seen evidence of an inflation shock.

*The market is likely to remain unbothered until we get to a level that would make a rate hike a credible threat. That levels may be closer to 4.0% for Core YoY (vs 3-3.1% forecast for July) unless the Fed views that as transitory as well.

[The Fed will only get more dovish from here and won't hike even with 4% core, which will probably get dismissed as transitory tariff inflation. BTFD before it's too late!]

Bitcoin/Ethereum Spot ETF Flows: 11 August 2025

🟢Bitcoin ETFs: $178.1M net outflows

🟢🟢Ethereum ETFs: $1.01B net inflows

[Btc.d has topped and the rotation is not even that slow anymore]

🚨State Street's proprietary Risk Appetite Index, which tracks big money flows into risk assets, ended July near record high at 53%. June–July have seen the highest readings since late 2020, just before the 2021 bull market took off.

🚨BTC.D has just completed a bearish retest of its 50-week average after breaking below it. In past cycles, this has marked the starting signal for alt season. [BTFD, we're still early!]

🚨ETH/BTC (0.038) is trading at a deep discount compared to the ETHMVRV/BTCMVRV ratio. Given their historical correlation, this divergence shows ETH is still cheap and has room to run until at least the 0.07 mark. [Alt season is just getting started, BTFD before it's too late!]

🚨THE TRUE BULL HASN’T STARTED YET (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)

We define capital utilization as the amount of outstanding loans divided by the total deposits across all defi lending protocols on a given date. Since 2020, capital utilization in DeFi lending has followed an ascending trendline.

In a true bull market, as euphoria fuels leverage, capital utilization rises. This happened in 2021, when utilization climbed steadily from 40% to 50% over the course of the year.

As of 13 August, utilization remains flat at around 40%, sitting directly on the long term ascending trendline.

This confirms our base case that we are still in the very early stages of a bull market that should last another 9–12 months from the moment capital utilization starts the climb toward the 50-60% range.

🚨Dero's official binaries have been updated to release 14.2 to remove randomness reuse from all wallets.

Since the fix was allowed to be pushed in the official binaries, this strongly indicates that Dero's bulletproofs are now deemed by Captain to be battle tested & safe. This is my interpretation, Captain himself has never directly commented on randomness reuse.

Dero's rocket bulletproofs are not documented in literature & were introduced for the first time on Dero in 2022. They are created for homomorphic encryption, account model and smart contracts making them the most advanced BPs in crypto today. HE & account model are key features that eliminate single use outputs. This means Dero is immune to all UTXO & key image heuristics that compromised XMR & all UTXO privacy chains.

With this update Dero is not just the only non chainanalyzable privacy chain out there, but also officially battle tested and audited by the entire world that by using randomness reuse could independently verify its transactions.

The MOVE index continues to make new lows, closing yesterday at 77.31, its lowest since December 2021. Since 2020, a bottom in the MOVE index has preceded hawkish pivots in Fed rhetoric by at least two months. With no sign of a bottom yet, the Fed will only get more dovish from here. [Rate cuts with high inflation will send crypto turbo, BTFD!]

Bitcoin now represents 1.7% of the global money supply.

Bessent: Treasury is committed to exploring budget-neutral pathways to acquire more bitcoin

Yardeni: The hotter than expected PPI showed inflation is sticky and the economy is resilient. Our contrarian view for "none-and-done in 2025" gets stronger.

For the Fed the PPI is an indicator that inflation could be sticky and not tariff induced because the PPI excludes imports. Yet, even Yardeni's contrarian case for none-and-done in 2025 is still ultra bullish for crypto because higher inflation will bring down real rates as long as the Fed doesn't hike. See our post from July 22 if you missed it. [Ignore macro FUD and BTFD!]

🚨New Defillama total stablecoin market cap ATH: $273bn [+8bn in 3 weeks. BTFD!]

🚨In Q1 2025, global banks' cross-border lending to non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) jumped $678bn, the largest ever. $585bn (85%) came from banks based in the US, UK, and France.

Looks like US banks saw real rates coming down with tariff inflation and inflation denial. [The rate cuts you are waiting for have already happened. BTFD!]

🚨Coinbase's crypto liquidity index just turned positive for the first time since January. [BTFD, ignore macro FUD!]

The TVL on ETH is approaching its highest level since 2021, this week it surpassed $95bn for the first time since January 2022.

🚨This week DeFi lending outflows surged by $1.93bn in a single day, the largest increase since October 2021 when utilization rates, a proxy for risk appetite, hovered near the cycle peak at 50%.

By contrast, today utilization remains flat at around 40%, the same level observed in early 2021 at the very start of the bull market.

Plenty of runway left for bulls. [BTFD!]

🚨Bitcoin's 200 DMA has just surpassed $100k

WHY LAST WEEK'S PPI DRIVEN CORRECTION IS NOISE (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) The MOVE index closed last week at 76.66, its lowest since January 2022 (despite a hot PPI). This shows inflation is far from the levels where it could trigger a hawkish rhetoric pivot in the Fed.

We started tracking the MOVE index on July 12 (85.48) over concerns that the Fed may react hawkishly to emerging tariff inflation. Based on the proprietary UBS Fed sentiment score, we found the MOVE index has led hawkish pivots in Fed rhetoric by 1-2 months since 2020.

Starting from this observation, we noted that MOVE suggests the Fed is about to get more dovish, not hawkish. In line with MOVE expectations, the FOMC statement on July 30 came in dovish.

The lowest weekly close since 2021 once again points toward a more dovish Fed ahead. For as long as the MOVE index doesn't bottom, there is little reason to worry about a rise in hawkish rhetoric. [BTFD!]